Breeders' Cup 2020: What are Keeneland surface trends?

It can be difficult to decipher who has the best form in deep Breeders' Cup fields, which feature horses with a wide array of backgrounds. Keeneland's unique layout and surface add another layer to the puzzle.

"Keeneland is very quirky track," said Bruno De Julio, a Kentucky-based clocker and workout analyst. "It's like no other track in the country. First of all, the main track is 1 1/16 miles in circumference. The odd circumference makes it almost impossible for mile and 1 1/16-mile races to run conventionally and are conducted to a short stretch and second finish line at the 16th pole. Thus, in those races the stretch run is slightly less than three-sixteenths of a mile."

De Julio, who runs the website brunowiththeworks.com, said early movers have an advantage.

"Speed and inside trips are a must," he said. "Stretch runners have to start their run much earlier and have to be in contention by middle of far turn. Sprints can be fair, but inside trips very much like turf-style trips of stalking inside, and tipping out at three-sixteenth pole are common and desired."

De Julio said that Keeneland can work against some deep closers.

"It is very hard to circle the field and possible if the track is tiring to speed," he said. "But a wide trip can help those horses that hate the kickback and if superior can overcome it. Seasoned horses can handle any track. Cheap horses can't, and that is something handicappers have to put first and foremost in their overall opinions at the windows."

One professional horseplayer said that the trick to betting Keeneland is to figure out how horses that are coming from around the world stack up against each other.

"It is a lot harder to handicap when the horses have not raced against each other or at different levels at the same track," said Tommy Massis, who won the 2015 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge at Keeneland. "The Breeders' Cup makes the puzzle even harder with the addition of European horses. This is not a puzzle that is easy to decipher, so I stick to figuring out pace scenarios as my go-to way to try to pick winners."

Statistically, the inside has not been where horses want to be on the dirt at Keeneland in 2020. The No. 1 and 2 posts are a combined 12-for-150 (8 percent) in sprint races and are just 5-for-86 (5.8 percent) in route races. Most handicappers agree that the rail is not a good place to be unless you have speed, but the No. 2 post has not been any better.

Posts 1-6 are only 2-for-48 (4.2 percent) in turf sprints; posts 7 and 8 are 6-for-14 (42.9 percent). It is no surprise that the middle of the field is the best place to be drawn.

In turf routes the inside has been the place to be. Posts 1-4 are a combined 22-for-140 (15.7 percent). Posts 5-8 are only 7-for-122 (5.7 percent). Post No. 9 has been a strong 4-for-19 (21 percent), but you do not want to be much farther out than that. Posts 10-12 are just 2-for-40 (5 percent).

Despite the stats, not all handicappers toss turf runners from a poor draw. Ellis Starr, the National Racing Analyst for Equibase, feels that the trip is more important than the draw on Keeneland's turf.

"It's fairly ingrained in my handicapping that in routes at Keeneland, particularly on turf, outside posts aren't as disadvantageous as they are at other tracks, Starr said. "Certainly the first third of the post positions, adjusted for field size, have an advantage because the shortest point around the track is the closest to the rail, but I will rarely toss a horse from the 11, 12 or even 13 or 14 post (which will be the case for some Breeders' Cup races) on the Keeneland turf where trip is much more important than post."

As expected, being near the lead in dirt sprints in advantageous. There were 25 winners out of 74 starters (33.8 percent) during the fall meet that had the lead at the half-mile point. In route races 13 out of 49 (26.5 percent) winners led at the half-mile marker.

There were only six turf sprints in the fall meet, and frontrunners won two of them.

In the 27 turf routers, front-runners won six, good for 22.2 percent.