Experts offer 9 angles on how to bet Kentucky Downs

Franklin, Ky.

There is no mistaking the uniqueness of Kentucky Downs. The lush, green racecourse is within walking distance from the sign on Interstate 65 that says, “Tennessee, The Volunteer State, Welcomes You.” Its nuances stand out in stark contrast to conventional tracks across the country.

The tight first turn, the backstretch that bears right. The uphill run to the far turn. The three-furlong homestretch that has its own version of ParisLongchamp’s “false straight.” This place that conjures images of European racecourses is full of charm.

It is also a minefield for handicappers.

“There are no basics when it comes to Kentucky Downs,” said Joe Kristufek, the Twin Spires TV host who wrote the morning line for the track from 2015 to 2017 and still shows up to study its races.

Dick Downey, a handicapper who runs The Downey Profile website, has seen every race the course has hosted since it was opened in 1990. “At Kentucky Downs the stretch is uphill,” he said. “It’s almost three-eighths of a mile long. It’s kind of like Belmont.”

In separate conversations this week, Kristufek and Downey offered their thoughts on how to play the idiosyncrasies and other betting angles, just in time for Wednesday’s resumption of the six-day mini-meet.

The weather report

Kristufek: “I have a better handle on this turf course and how to play the races here than most people, but I got crushed (Sunday) on opening day. We went from a mist to a drizzle to a rain. The course condition changed three times. I talked to some of the riders after the races. They said either your horse handled the turf or it didn’t. You can’t handicap that.”

Downey: “The weather and the moisture in the track influence the outcome of these races. If we’ve had a dry end of the summer, and if it doesn’t rain, the track does tend to be firmer during the meet. That does favor horses that do have early speed here. When there’s quite a bit of moisture in the track, from statistics I’ve kept over the years, closers tend to dominate these races.”

Kristufek: “When the turf is firm here, speed tends to do well in the sprint races. Regardless of the course condition, in the mile races and further, it tends to be a little bit off the pace. But on opening day there were 11 races. Five of those were won by off-the-pace horses, and two of the ones that won gate-to-wire were two of the longest shots. You don’t see that too often. That’s tough to predict.”

Trainer-jockey combinations

Downey: “If I see a top jockey riding for an obscure trainer that I don't know much about, I do pay attention. A few years ago Wayne Catalano and his son-in-law (jockey Channing Hill) won a boatload of races out here together, and Catalano won the (2015) trainer title.”

Kristufek: “It looked like going into opening day, (jockey) Joel Rosario was loaded, and he won five races. (He won five more Monday.) It looked like going into opening day that (trainer) Joe Sharp had horses pointed for this meet. He won three races.”

Downey: “Rosario and Adam Beschizza and Tyler Gaffalione have won a lot of races here. The Ortiz brothers do, too. They've done pretty well here. And Brian Hernandez Jr. is the overall leader in total wins for a career here.”

Kristufek: “José and Irad (Ortiz) both have had a lot of success here. Tyler Gaffalione has been very consistent here. Joel Rosario fits this course so well because he’s so patient. If you put him on a horse that’s going to be forwardly placed, that works to his benefit. If he needs to come from off the pace, we all know how well he can do that and how well he rides the grass anyway. Florent Géroux has had a lot of success here over a sustained number of years, as has Julien Leparoux. If you gravitate toward those riders, you’re going to do OK.”

Horses for this course

Kristufek: “Even if they don’t have great form coming in, you want to see if horses handled the turf well here in the past. This is a tricky place. Horses get out here, and if they’ve never run here, they’re like, ‘What’s going on?’ You have to have a little bit of mental fortitude from a horse to perform well on this course if you’ve never run over it.”

Downey: “A horse that has had a positive experience over this track definitely has an edge. Some horses love it here. Some don’t. If you see a horse that showed a positive run here in the past, that’s a good edge. A horse who has never raced here, you don’t know whether they’re going to like it or not.”

Who calls it home?

Kristufek: “There are several stables that have horses here on the grounds, which is a big deal because they get to gallop over this turf course on the dark days or leading into the meet. Joe Sharp, Brad Cox, Bill Mott, Steve Asmussen, Wesley Ward, Mike Maker, Ian Wilkes. They’re all shuffling horses in and out of here. I think that can be a big benefit. If you’re splitting hairs between horsemen who have horses on the grounds and horsemen who don’t, maybe that can be the deciding factor for you.”

Downey: “I would prefer a veteran rider of a few meets here. It’s not an automatic toss if a jockey has never been here, but if everything else is equal, yeah, maybe it is.”

It plays longer than it looks

Downey: “In turf races you want a horse that finishes well. At Kentucky Downs the stretch is uphill, so you might want to look for horses used to running a mile and a 16th and farther for stamina purposes if they’re running a mile here.”

Pay attention to rail

Kristufek: “They move the rails a lot. The first two days it’s 40 feet. Then 20 feet for the next two days (Wednesday and Thursday). Then zero for the big weekend coming up. You’re going to have fresh paths. Once those inside paths are fresh, I would probably pay attention to horses that are going to be on the rail. That normally means horses that have speed have an advantage because they can show some speed and get to the rail.”

See where they run

Downey: “The surprise I’ve had about this turf course and the moisture in it, the inside nearest the rail tends to retain more moisture.”

Kristufek: “Sometimes when the course gets worn from the inside to the middle, you want to be on the far outside in the stretch. Try to pay attention to that.”

Downey: “The radius of that far turn is probably 2 1/2 times greater than the radius of the first turn. The stretch is almost three-eighths of a mile long. You can’t use up too much of your horse in that turn. It’s kind of like Belmont Park if you move too soon. Riders who aren’t accustomed to Kentucky Downs have to get used to the fact that you have to turn right before you enter the far turn, and then you turn left. It doesn’t happen often, but I’ve seen horses bump that rail in that spot where it got a little tight.”

Don’t force Pick 5 with big fields

Kristufek: “If you really like a horse in a Pick 5, maybe ‘single’ two horses, and really spread deep in the other ones. The same with the Pick 4. I have tried to focus my wagering this meet on the Pick 3s. Inevitably in a Pick 4 or Pick 5, with the budget I’m working with, I’m probably going to miss somewhere. When I’m trying to hit the Pick 3, on some occasions I’m trying to hit them twice.”

Downey: “If it’s not a big stakes day here, in my opinion, the races are more difficult to handicap. On a day when you have several stakes races, if you handicap scientifically, which I do, I do better on those days.”

Kristufek: “If you like a horse that’s 6-1 or 8-1, just bet the horse. If you’re playing around with exactas and trifectas and Pick 3s and Pick 4s, and that horse wins, yet you don’t hit any of those (multi-race) bets when it pays $18, and you lose money, there’s no worse feeling than that. Play the horses. You get so many good prices across the board here that I feel if you like a horse, play the horse.”

Don’t get discouraged

Downey: “I had a group of friends that were here (on opening day), and they don’t know much about racing. A couple of them were just betting long shots all day. They would pick out three long shots in every race and bet them, and they did better than all of us.”

Kristufek: “You might not be right very often at Kentucky Downs. But when you are, most of the time with the big fields, you’re going to get paid.”