Expert sets would-be Kentucky Derby 2020 morning line odds

What if the final preps were done and the last works complete? What if the barn areas on Churchill Downs’ backside were buzzing with their usual late April activity?

What if, absent the COVID-19 pandemic, Churchill Downs had drawn post positions for the 2020 Kentucky Derby like normal on Tuesday? At least we can dream.

Horse Racing Nation co-founder Mark Midland, who in 1999 created Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager, has set a would-be morning line for a Derby run as scheduled on the first Saturday in May.

Midland rated Tiz the Law the 3-1 favorite to beat. He assumed had final preps run on schedule such as the Santa Anita Derby (G1), Wood Memorial (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G2), that trainer Bob Baffert was set to have a top trio in the wagering.

“Even though Tiz the Law and Charlatan were co-favorites in the fourth Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, in a May 2 Kentucky Derby Tiz the Law is a clear favorite,” Midland said.

That’s due to a convincing victory March 28 in the Florida Derby (G1), while we’ve yet to actually see the likes of Charlatan (5-1), Nadal (6-1) and Authentic (8-1) go those 1 1/8 miles.

“Tiz the Law also offers the familiarity of winning connections to Funny Cide with trainer Barclay Tagg and the ownership group Sackatoga Stable, which captured the 2003 Derby and Preakness with the popular gelding,” Midland added.

His field of 20 was formed, in part, by traditional Derby points standards that see contenders qualify with 40 or so earned, along with the assumption that a horse like Honor A. P. would run to expectations in his final prep.

Midland rated the well regarded member of the John Shirreffs barn as an 8-1 co-fourth choice, as the Santa Anita Derby would have marked his second race off the layoff, and he was a promising second when returning earlier in the prep season.

Of course, we can’t account for the full results of final preps that didn’t happen. But both Mr. Big News and Farmington Road made statements when running 1-2 in the 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Stakes earlier this month, while Cafe Pharoah was added to the prospective field as a live-looking prep winner from Japan.

Perhaps longshots Mischevious Alex, the Gotham (G3) winner, and Shivaree, the Florida Derby runner-up, are a better fit around one turn than two. But on points, they were tracking to make the previously scheduled Derby.

“What will be interesting to see is how much this prospective field changes between May and September,” Midland said, with the Derby now set for Sept. 5. “A big part of the Derby excitement and mystique is the uncertainty of 20 three-year-old colts that are rapidly developing and untested at a mile and a quarter.

“With a summer to train and prep for the race, there should be more clarity as to who the best colts are by the time the Derby runs.”