Expert picks, longshots: How to bet Kentucky Derby 2018
With what's billed as one of the most talented fields in years, Horse Racing Nation's staff gathered to make its selections and list some longshots.
Post time is set for 6:50 p.m. ET Saturday at Churchill Downs, with NBC carrying the broadcast.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #6 Good Magic
On the board: #5 Audible, #9 Hofburg
Longshot I like: #17 Solomini
Analysis: Good Magic is coming along at the right time, and the Kentucky Derby will be his peak performance. A good post, Good Magic will get a ground saving trip, along with a good pace up front. As a 2-year-old, Good Magic didn't put it all together until his third start, a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The Derby will be his third start of the year, and coming off his win in the Blue Grass, he has trained very impressively since arriving at Churchill, and he is ready to run the best race of his life in the Kentucky Derby.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost.com)
Winner: #5 Audible
On the board: #7 Justify, #14 Mendelssohn
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: 2018 could be the most competitive field that I have ever seen. To make things more difficult it was also one of the friendliest post position draws for big name contenders that I can remember. Justify is the best horse in the field but I’ll play Audible to beat him. Not picked but Good Magic could be sitting on a peak performance.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #6 Good Magic
On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #5 Audible
Longshot I like: #12 Enticed
Analysis: Good Magic fires his best in the big races, and there is no bigger contest than this one. Bolt d’Oro is a multiple Grade 1 winner that is experienced, battle-tested, and regally bred. Audible turned in two wow performances in Florida in his preparation for this. Enticed has won every other start and if the pattern continues, he’ll be wearing roses.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #12 Enticed
On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #14 Mendelssohn
Longshot I like: #12 Enticed
Analysis: I have been on Enticed's bandwagon since his 2-year-old debut. The forgotten horse this year, he has had a fairly old-school prep schedule for the Derby. He started the year needing a race in Florida, won a nice prep in New York, and fought to a second-place finish in the Wood Memorial. This should have him sharp and battle-tested for the 20-horse Derby. Bolt D'Oro is the hardest-trying horse in the field, and if he was in any of the super trainers' barns, he would be among the favorites. His all-out battles with McKinzie and Justify may have emptied the tank, however. Mendelssohn is a cipher, but he has been pointed for this race all year, unlike many UAE Derby winners who make the trip just because. I think he is strong enough to hit the board.
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
Winner: #16 Magnum Moon
On the board: #5 Audible, #4 Flameaway
Longshot I like: #17 Solomini
Analysis: You could run this race 10 times and have 10 different winners. It is that contentious. I like the No. 16 post for Magnum Moon, as he can eye his main rivals to his inside throughout. Audible figures to get a perfect stalking trip behind Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway. He, too, will be very tough here. Flameaway should have the lead turning for home. Don't be surprised if he wins this outright. Solomini is a forgotten talent who has yet to get his act together at age 3. He stacks up well with these if he can run a clean race.
Madison Jackson, And Away They Go (@andawayhrn)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #5 Audible
Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg
Analysis: Though it's hard to look past an undefeated winner of the Santa Anita Derby who is trained by Bob Baffert, there are a few I think could be right there at the finish with Justify. Mendelssohn certainly has the breeding to love a mile and a quarter on dirt, but Hofburg's closing in the Florida Derby makes me think he could do the same thing at Churchill.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #6 Good Magic, #18 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #14 Mendelssohn
Analysis: I had my heart set on Good Magic after seeing him at Keeneland, but here I am picking Justify after seeing the two on the track and realizing how much better Justify looks. He was a total professional. Good Magic still looks good, but I think he is running for second. Vino and Mendelssohn are the two others I was very much impressed with physically.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #18 Vino Rosso
On the board: #5 Audible, #7 Justify
Longshot I like: #20 Combatant
Analysis: Vino Rosso is one of the few horses in the race bred for the distance. He's improving at the right time, and he's one of the best looking horses at Churchill. Johnny V. choosing him over the other Pletchers surely helps my confidence. With that being said, take my on the board horses with a grain of salt, as I'm planning on including 10 horses underneath a trifecta.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #5 Audible
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: Justify owns the best speed figures and the early turn of foot to stay out of trouble, but he does not need to engage Promises Fulfilled. As for Mendelssohn, this is a different kind of UAE Derby winner who finally merits consideration because of his superb 18-length win and American breeding. Also, Audible has done nothing wrong in Florida and could take advantage if the leaders go too fast.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Cappercorner)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #9 Hofburg
Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg
Analysis: Justify is the fastest horse in the race, period. Apollo Curse aside, he isn't a one-dimensional speed ball, 10 furlongs shouldn't be an issue, and has already handled an off track. If it weren't for Justify, Bolt d'Oro should be your race favorite. While not crossing the finish first yet this year, he has run quicker than anyone else in the group. Hofburg has been training great, improving exponentially, and should relish the Derby distance.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #11 Bolt d'Oro
On the board: #7 Justify, #18 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #10 My Boy Jack
Analysis: Bolt D’oro is the most battle-tested horse in the field. I think his running style will set him up perfectly for this race. Justify and Vino Rosso will be looming in the stretch.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #14 Mendelssohn, #6 Good Magic
Longshot I like: #18 Vino Rosso
Analysis: Although three races seems like little experience heading into the Derby, Justify gets my top pick. He's won all of his races in impressive fashion, left Bolt d'Oro chasing him the entire Santa Anita Derby, and he's put in longer works ahead of the 1 1/4 miles. It's a tough field, but he's shown a lot of talent so far.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch (@LauraDPugh)
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #11 Bolt d'Oro, #18 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg
Analysis: The pace will be hot, but I don't believe Justify will be on it. Instead I think he will sit in behind the leaders, getting the perfect stalking trip. Bolt D'Oro should get a similar one. The early speed will set it up for a couple closers to hit.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #16 Magnum Moon
On the board: #18 Vino Rosso, #7 Justify
Longshot I like: #11 Bolt d'Oro
Analysis: Undefeated Magnum Moon has not made any missteps all year and his gallop out in the Arkansas Derby made him look like he wont have any problem with the extra distance. This is a derby with about 8 to 10 horses with real talent who could win if they get a good trip.
Laurie Ross, Pedigree Power (@IMTBreds)
Winner: #18 Vino Rosso
On the board: #5 Audible, #7 Justify
Longshot I like: #10 My Boy Jack
Analysis: With Vino Rosso, don’t like his one-run style, but if the pace is as hot as expected, then he’ll come along and has the chance to grab it. As for Audible, he’s doing what most Into Mischief babies can’t. Could be the anomaly. With Justify, maybe he’s the second coming of American Pharoah, but there are too many negatives to stick him in win spot. Reminds me of Curlin. Every year, a stone closer gets up to nab a piece of the pie. My Boy Jack reminds me of Exaggerator.
Jason Wood, The Paddock View, @JasonWWood
Winner: #7 Justify
On the board: #18 Vino Rosso, #5 Audible
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: Honestly, there are at least eight horses that could win this race on any given Saturday. Justify simply looks like a beast on and off paper. I know this is far and away his toughest test, and I hate to pick a favorite in the Derby. But sometimes you just have to trust your gut.
Brian Zipse, Zipse at the Track, @Zipseatthetrack
Winner: #18 Vino Rosso
On the board: #6 Good Magic, #11 Bolt d'Oro
Longshot I like: #9 Hofburg
Analysis: I'm looking for a strong and contested pace in this year's Derby, so I am going with the best late runner in the field, and I believe that's Vino Rosso. He's the one horse in the field, more than any other, that I believe wants all of 10 furlongs.