Expert picks, longshots: Belmont 2018 predictions
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We polled Horse Racing Nation contributors for their picks, longshots and plays. Also be sure to keep an eye on the current Belmont Stakes odds. Good luck!
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost.com)
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #4 Hofburg, #3 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #10 Blended Citizen
Analysis: It’s Justify’s race to lose, and I believe he’s ready for the challenge. Playing against him could be difficult, but should another horse in the field become the spoiler, trifecta plays will include Hofburg, Bravazo and Blended Citizen. Of these three horses that I will play with Justify in the Trifecta, Hofburg is my top choice to pull off the upset.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #8 Vino Rosso
On the board: #1 Justify, #4 Hofburg
Longshot I like: #7 Tenfold
Analysis: This race was very difficult to handicap, as a number of horses in this field can win. Vino Rosso is the pick for me. His connections have said the Belmont is the perfect race for him, and they have a point. He is sired by Curlin, the 2007 runner up and sire of 2013 Belmont winner Palace Malice, as well as last year's Belmont runner up Irish War Cry. His dam, Flaming Heart, is a half sister to Commissioner, the 2014 Belmont runner up. Vino Rosso's pedigree screams 12 furlongs. He will need a good break, and from his outside post, can get a good stalking trip on the outside. I do think the six races in four months catches up to Justify. Hofburg is another beautifully bred horse who can get the distance, while Tenfold is a longshot worth looking at because of pedigree and his training since the Preakness. I'll play an 8-1-4-7 superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #8 Vino Rosso, #4 Hofburg
Longshot I like: #7 Tenfold
Analysis: Justify has stood up to all the challenges to this point. With his tactical speed and the way he is coming into the race, it will be very difficult to slay this giant. Vino Rosso is a better horse than he showed in the Kentucky Derby. Has rested for five weeks and is handled by Todd Pletcher, who has proven he can get them ready for the mile and a half. Hofburg's Derby effort wasn't all that terrible. He has talent and sports top-notch connections. He is sired by Tapit, producer of three of the last four Belmont winners. Tenfold was a bit unlucky in the first turn of the Preakness and was beaten less than one length. He appears to be peaking at the right time. His breeding is impeccable for 12 furlongs.
My $5 trifecta part wheel - 1/8/2-3-4-5-7-10 - $30 ticket
My $3 trifecta part wheel - 1/2-3-4-5-7-10/8 - $18 ticket
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
Winner: #9 Noble Indy
On the board: #4 Hofburg, #2 Free Drop Billy
Longshot I like: #9 Noble Indy
Analysis: Assuming it's a fast racetrack, Noble Indy should get a nice trip from the outside post stalking early leader Justify. He is bred for the distance and will be flying under the radar here. Hofburg is my pick if the rain comes again and the track is sloppy. He ran a very good race in the Derby and should love the added ground here. Free Drop Billy will be a longshot, but he too should appreciate the added distance. I think the son of Belmont winner Union Rags could complete the trifecta.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #7 Tenfold, #10 Blended Citizen
Longshot I like: #9 Noble Indy
Analysis: Simply put, I think no horse in the field can stop Justify. However, the others make good arguments. Noble Indy hasn't received any respect, but his front-running style is favorable and if he lays close, he could hang around.
Jonathan Lintner, DerbyAlumni (@JonathanLintner)
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #7 Tenfold, #4 Hofburg
Longshot I like: #9 Noble Indy
Analysis: That Justify should get a fast track, and that he has run his best race over a fast track, isn't being talked about nearly enough. I think he's eligible to improve and finishes first or second, if the breeding or recent work load catches up to him in the stretch. I'm looking at a Trifecta ticket that includes each of Justify, Tenfold and Hofburg in the win spot. I will leave Noble Indy on the ticket in case he sticks around, as the pace shouldn't be harsh. Vino Rosso is the most popular pick I'll probably let beat me.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #4 Hofburg, #7 Tenfold
Longshot I like: #3 Bravazo
Analysis: I think Justify will have control of the race if he breaks well and tracks Restoring Hope. Hofburg, Tenfold and Bravazo will all be rolling late. They are all bred for classic distances, and I anticipate a competitive fight to the finish.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch (@LauraDPugh)
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #9 Noble Indy, #7 Tenfold
Longshot I like: #5 Restoring Hope
Analysis: Justify is best by a mile (and a half?) here. If he breaks clean, he will get loose on the lead. Other horses with the ability to lay close, like Noble Indy and Tenfold, aren't likely to be caught by closers. Restoring Hope has looked sharp in his works, and would not be in here if he didn't have a shot. He, like the other two, will lay close to the pace, and with his pedigree, he's not likely to run out of gas turning for home.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #1 Justify
On the board: #3 Bravazo, #9 Noble Indy
Longshot I like: #8 Vino Rosso
Analysis: We should see our 13th Triple Crown winner when Justify takes the Belmont. Class and talent will carry him across the finish line.