Expert picks and plays for Thanksviging's top stakes races
The traditional Thanksgiving Day stakes schedule offers some nice betting opportunities at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. Let's try to make the holiday an even happier occasion with these plays...
Editor's note: After publication of this article, the New York Racing Association canceled Thursday's Aqueduct card due to anticipated high winds.
Aqueduct Race 7: Fall Highweight (G3)
6 furlongs on dirt; 2:50 p.m. ET
Favorite: #4 Recruiting Ready (3-1)
Morning line favorite #2 Firenze Fire is running in Wednesday's Fabulous Strike at Penn National instead, so that makes Recruiting Ready the chalk. The latter is fast enough to wire the field. He is 7-for-15 at this distance and captured the Gravesend in his lone local attempt.
Value Win Contenders: #5 Stan the Man (8-1), #9 Happy Farm (8-1)
Stan the Man is a contender on class and numbers, and John Terranova is a strong layoff trainer. This is not his best distance, but he likes this oval and should offer value. Happy Farm has really improved since Jason Servis claimed him for $30,000 on March 3. The early pressing type seeks a four-bagger, and Jose Lezcano was aboard for his claiming $40,000 romp on Sept. 7 at Belmont Park. This is clearly a class test.
Live Longshots: #3 Wonderful Light (10-1)
Wonderful Light is fresh and tactical, and he does some of his best work at six furlongs. The lightly raced 5-year-old horse is very reliable.
Wagers: #9 to win; exacta 4-5-9/3; trifecta 4-5-9/ALL/3
Aqueduct Race 8: Winter Memories
8.5 furlongs on turf; 3:20 p.m. ET
Favorite: #3 Sorrentina Lemon (7-2)
Sorrentina Lemon is 2-for-2 for Christophe Clement. She clearly has upside but has not earned strong numbers yet.
Value Win Contenders: #6 Shelter Island (6-1), #10 Atomic Blonde (8-1)
Shelter Island chased slow fractions and scored in her Belmont turf route bow at this distance on Sept. 21, and the 2-3 finishers were next-out winners. She might be this good for John Velazquez and Chad Brown. Atomic Blonde was up on the pace and ran well in all three turf starts. She is fresh and her numbers are on the rise.
Live Longshots: #11 Tass (12-1)
Tass added blinkers and went all the way in her last two turf routes, and her numbers jumped up in those victories.
Wagers: #10 to win; exacta 10/3-5-6; exacta 3-5-6/10; trifecta 6-10/3-5-6-10/3-5-6-8-10-11
Fair Grounds Race 7: Thanksgiving Classic
6 furlongs on dirt; 4:08 p.m. ET
Favorite: #5 Bobby’s Wicked One (8-5)
Bobby’s Wicked One flopped in his last pair and had bad starts both times. He is 3-for-4 at Fair Grounds, however, and he finished 1-2 in five of his six starts at this distance. He can bounce back if he gets out of the gate and makes the lead.
Value Win Contenders: #1 Whereshetoldmetogo (5-2)
Whereshetoldmetogo exits a big extended sprint win in the slop at Churchill. This is only his fourth start this year, and he seems to be back in top form. He is 6-for-15 on fast dirt.
Live Longshots: #4 Wilbo (5-2)
Wilbo is very consistent and looks best of the rest. The 7-year-old gelding needs pace help, and he will probably rally for a share.
Wagers: #1 to win; exacta 1-5; trifecta 1-5/1-5/4
Churchill Downs Race 11: Cardinal Stakes (G3)
9 furlongs on turf; 4:22 p.m. ET
Favorite: #11 Starship Jubilee (6-5)
Starship Jubilee attended slow fractions and won her last two graded turf routes at Woodbine. The 6-year-old mare is sharp, fresh and versatile, and she is 2-for-3 at this distance. This is her first start at Churchill.
Value Win Contenders: #8 Limari (4-1)
Limari is versatile and consistent. All four of her wins were front-running scores under Thursday’s pilot Florent Geroux.
Live Longshots: #1 Stave (12-1), #10 Smart Shot (10-1)
Stave likes this turf course and should be forwardly placed from the rail. Smart Shot clearly does her best work under the Twin Spires. She missed by a neck in the local Mint Julep (G3) on June 8, and she finished a half length in front of Limari that day.
Wagers: #8 to win; exacta box 8-11; exacta 8-11/1-10; trifecta 8-11/ALL/1-10