Expert picks: Woodward Stakes 2019 predictions, longshots
Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Woodward Stakes is the richest race left this summer at Saratoga, and without a towering favorite, there's a nice opportunity for bettors to cash in as well.
Ahead of the 1 1/8-mile feature, set for 6 p.m. ET, here's how the Horse Racing Nation team's playing the Woodward. And while forming your own opinions, be sure to check out free past performances.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #7 Yoshida
On the board: #9 Tom's d'Etat, #3 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #8 Wooderson
Analysis: Yoshida won this event last year, and that occasion marked his first victory on dirt after 10 consecutive turf races to begin his career. Since then, he’s 0 for 5 but appeared to turn things around with a return to Saratoga last race, when he was second in the Whitney (G2). Tom’s d’Etat has won 7 of 13 lifetime races and has a perfect record in three Saratoga starts. He finished far back at the Pegasus World Cup in his only prior Grade 1 start, but that was over a sloppy track. Vino Rosso has been blanked in three races at the Spa but comes into this race having recorded a sharp bullet work. In addition, the blinkers comes off, often a successful move by his trainer.
Wager: trifecta 7-9/3-7-8-9/3-5-7-8-9
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #2 Bal Harbour
On the board: #3 Vino Rosso, #7 Yoshida
Longshot I like: #2 Bal Harbour
Analysis: They say Saratoga is the "Graveyard of Champions." In this race with no clear standout, I'm going with Bal Harbour in an upset. He's been knocking on the door in stakes all year, and with a jockey change to Javier Castellano, who has ridden this horse to a stakes win in the past, I think he'll be the winner this time. I can't ignore Yoshida, Vino Rosso and Tom's d'Etat to pair with Bal Harbour in exotics.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #7 Yoshida
On the board: #3 Vino Rosso, #9 Tom's d'Etat
Longshot I like: #8 Wooderson
Analysis: Yoshida clearly likes Saratoga. He won this race last year and was second in the Whitney. He could easily rally for the win. Vino Rosso removes blinkers and drilled a strong local bullet for this on Aug. 23. He might end up sitting a decent stalking trip. Tom’s d’Etat is 3-for-3 at Saratoga, and all three of those wins were at a mile and an eighth. He loses his winning rider, Joel Rosario, to Yoshida, but new pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. should have options from the outside post. Wooderson ran the best race of his career in the restricted Alydar at this course/distance on Aug. 2, and he was clearly second best to Tom's d'Etat that day. He should get pace to chase.
Wagers: #7 to win; exacta 7/3-8-9; exacta 3-8-9/7; trifecta 7/all/3-8
Mark Midland
Winner: #1 Mr. Buff
On the board: #9 Tom's d'Etat, #5 Preservationist
Longshot I like: #2 Bal Harbour
Analysis: New York-bred Mr. Buff isn't a name horse, but he's much more accomplished than people realize, and this race fits him perfectly. There isn't that much speed in the race, he's drawn the rail, and he loves this distance. He's won easily both times previously going 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga. In fact, he is 7-for-8 in two-turn races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles.
In his last, Mr. Buff rated behind a quick pace, but he could end up on the front end of the Woodward with a moderate pace. He's a great value anywhere near his morning line odds of 8-1.
The other speed in here, Tom's d'Etat, looked great rating off his pace in his last, so he doesn't have incentive to fight with Mr. Buff on the front end. Meanwhile, Bal Harbour and Preservationist have also run their best when rating, so they may not challenge for the lead either.
My wagers: $5 exacta 1 with 2, 5, 7, 8 = $20; longshot $0.50 superfecta 1 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,3,4,5,7,8,9 with 2,4,8 = $27
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride
Winner: #7 Yoshida
On the board: #3 Vino Rosso, #5 Preservationist
Longshot I like: #8 Wooderson
Analysis: Yoshida loves Saratoga, and I believe he could’ve run down McKinzie had he started rolling a little earlier. He has a good post position to tuck back behind the leaders and try to defend his title. I like Suburban (G2) winner Preservationist's chances, as he’s been training super, if only he can relax a little better this time at nine furlongs. Wooderson shapes up as a live longshot after running well at Saratoga last time out when caught wide. He should improve off that effort.