Expert picks: Whitney Stakes predictions, longshots
Is it realistic to think Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Whitney Stakes could produce the eventual Breeders' Cup Classic favorite? A number of top contenders will line up at Saratoga, where the 1 1/8-mile race is set for a 5:46 p.m. ET post time.
Before they break, Horse Racing Nation's contributors weighed the possibilities with Whitney picks. In forming your own opinion, make sure to check out free past performances.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #4 Thunder Snow
On the board: #6 McKinzie, #5 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #7 Yoshida
Analysis: Thunder Snow comes into the Whitney in nice form after third in the Met Mile (G1) last time at a distance that's not his best. The extra furlong Saturday should help a horse that has looked really strong in the mornings at Saratoga leading up to this. Should sit about right outside of the leaders and will pounce turning for home. McKinzie is back at a distance in which he likes as well. He was probably best in the Met Mile but had a troubled trip in the stretch. With speed figures off the charts, a clean trip puts him right there. Vino Rosso comes in off his first Grade 1 win on the west coast last time out. This horse has really come into his own in 2019. Normally, the thought would be that he needs pace in front of him to get to the front, but he showed new tactics while stalking the leaders in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). The question might instead be of whether he's good enough. Yoshida hasn't run well lately but won the Woodward Stakes (G1) last year over this track and at the distance. Joel Rosario hops aboard for the first time since then. The dead closer stands an upset chance.
My bet: 4-6-5-7 superfecta box.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post
Winner: #6 McKinzie
On the board: #5 Vino Rosso, #8 Preservationist
Longshot I like: #3 Monongahela
Analysis: Vino Rosso will make it interesting, but McKinzie will be too tough to beat in the Whitney if he runs anything like his last, minus the trouble. This field presents a lot legitimate possibilities for rounding out the top three, but I’ll take a shot at it with Preservationist and Monongahela.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #4 Thunder Snow
On the board: #6 McKinzie, #8 Preservationist
Longshot I like: #3 Monongahela
Analysis: Thunder Snow was short on conditioning for the Met Mile, and the eight-furlong distance was not his best. In addition, he was blocked behind a wall of horses on the far turn, but was running on at the end. That effort should have him primed for this. McKinzie also incurred traffic trouble in the Met Mile, and he too was able to rally, finishing second. He’s been a heavy betting favorite in all four of his races this year but has won just once. Preservationist stepped up in class last race to score a convincing win in the Suburban (G2) and appears to be in peak form.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #6 McKinzie
On the board: #4 Thunder Snow, #3 Monongahela
Longshot I like: #3 Monongahela
Analysis: McKinzie appears to be controlling speed. Thunder Snow and Vino Rosso will not press him hard enough to tire him out, and he should win this. I don't see the pace setting up for the closers like Yoshida or Imperative. Monongahela is intriguing in this spot, however, and I think he hits the board at a big price. Preservationist had to run a lifetime top last out to beat Catholic Boy. I think he 'bounces' out of that effort.
My bet: 50-cent trifecta - 6/3,4,5/3,4,5
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby
Winner: #4 Thunder Snow
On the board: #6 McKinzie, #8 Preservationist
Longshot I like: #4 Thunder Snow
Analysis: Thunder Snow was much closer than McKinzie to the fast early pace in the Met Mile, but he hung tough in the stretch to just get edged. Should move forward off of that effort and will be difficult to beat in this spot. McKinzie has run well in every race this season, and if he can work out a good trip he should battle with Thunder Snow for a win. Preservationist ran big last out -- so big that I am concerned he will regress in this outing. Still should be good enough for a placing. Will likely and use his early speed to control this race.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #7 Yoshida
On the board: #8 Preservationist, #6 McKinzie
Longshot I like: #3 Monongahela
Analysis: Yoshida deserves one more chance on dirt after winning the Woodward at this course/distance last summer. Preservationist is the "now" horse riding a three-race win streak, and he stepped up and upset Catholic Boy in the Suburban. McKinzie was best in the Met Mile, but he did not find clear sailing until it was too late. He can handle this distance, but he is most effective up to a mile and a sixteenth. Monongahela showed improved tactical speed in his sharp Iselin (G3) score June 22. This is a tough spot, but he has never been better and might be able to spice up the exotics. #4 Thunder Snow was on the good inside in the Met Mile, and he was a solid third at a distance shorter than his best. Added ground helps, but he really wants a mile and a quarter. Vino Rosso upset Gift Box in the Gold Cup on May 27, but that was not the toughest renewal of that event. He is 0-for-2 at Saratoga.
My bets: #7 to win; exacta 7-8/6-7-8; trifecta 7-8/6-7-8/3-4-5-6-7-8
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #5 Vino Rosso
On the board: #8 Preservationist, #4 Thunder Snow
Longshot I like: #3 Monongahela
Analysis: Although McKinzie won the Pennsylvania Derby last year, he looks a little sharper at distances fewer than nine furlongs. The distance question gives an opening to other contenders such as Vino Rosso, Preservationist and Thunder Snow. The first option recently won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita and will offer some value to bettors, making him the top choice here.