Expert picks: Travers Stakes 2018 predictions, longshots
Given Triple Crown winner Justify's retirement, did we wind up with a stronger field for Saturday's Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes? It seems that way.
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Here's how the Horse Racing Nation crew has handicapped the 1 1/4-mile Mid-Summer Derby:
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost.com)
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #3 Gronkowski, #2 Wonder Gadot
Longshot I like: #4 Bravazo
Analysis: The field in the Travers Stakes is much bigger and more competitive than the Haskell, but the result will be the same. Chad Brown’s hot streak should continue with Good Magic in this one while rest race for second. I love the move that Wonder Gadot’s connections made by grabbing Irad Ortiz Jr. after it was announced that Hofburg would not start in the Travers. That will make things interesting as will Gronkowski, Bravazo and possibly Vino Rosso at a price.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #2 Wonder Gadot, #11 Catholic Boy
Longshot I like: #5 Vino Rosso
Analysis: Good Magic ran the best race of his career last out in the Haskell and is coming into the Travers Stakes in fine form. The one question mark is 10 furlongs. He was second behind Justify in the Derby, but was running on wobbly legs late. Can Good Magic stay the distance? Wonder Gadot has been a different filly since adding blinkers. Now, after winning the Queens' Plate and Prince of Wales in Canada, she is coming into the race in fine form. Catholic Boy is a prime turf horse, but has never run a bad race on dirt. His biggest advantage is he has a win at a mile and quarter in his last start. He has the far outside post and should be among the pacesetters. Vino Rosso ran on late to just miss in the Jim Dandy. With regained focus he can factor. I will play a 9-2-11-5 superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #3 Gronkowski, #2 Wonder Gadot
Longshot I like: #5 Vino Rosso
Analysis: Good Magic has finished first or second in six of eight starts, including winning the Haskell, when he powered on impressively after being rested following his two Triple Crown series efforts against Justify. He's been dynamite going nine furlongs, and although the extra eighth of a mile here is concerning, the pedigree is there to carry him the classic distance. Gronkowski proved his mettle on dirt with a second-place finish in the Belmont, just two lengths behind Justify. I don't think it was a fluke, and the field he faced at Belmont was stronger than this cast. The jockey change to Rosario could prove the difference at the finish. Wonder Gadot is used to racing against and beating the boys, having taken the first two legs of Canada's Triple Crown. She already sports a win at a mile-and-a-quarter, and has hit the board in 12 of her 13 career starts. The waters are deeper here, but she's an excellent prospect for the exacta and trifecta, and also must be afforded a decent chance to win it all. Vino Rosso has the benefit of a good race over the course and will enjoy the added ground. He just needs the pace up front to get hot to allow for his late kick.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #4 Bravazo
On the board: #5 Vino Rosso, #9 Good Magic
Longshot I like: #7 King Zachary
Analysis: Taking a shot with Bravazo here for a mild upset. He is tearing it up in the mornings and should have no trouble handling 10 furlongs. Vino Rosso has been pointed for this race, and I expect him to run well but come up short. Good Magic is the class pace factor here, but breaks outside and I think that will have a negative effect on his finishing power. I will use King Zachary, Tenfold and Gronkowski all "under" on my trifectas and superfectas. Mendelssohn = toss!
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@claughter_media)
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #2 Wonder Gadot, #5 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #10 Tenfold
Analysis: I have been in the Good Magic camp since last year, and I really think he is the best 3-year-old colt still in training. The Haskell set him up perfectly for this race to go a bit longer. The threat of Wonder Gadot is not one to take lightly. She is coming into the race a better filly than she was a few months ago.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #4 Bravazo, #2 Wonder Gadot
Longshot I like: #1 Trigger Warning
Analysis: Good Magic is a standout on class, although the 1 1/4-mile distance can be an equalizer. Bravazo tends to lose ground and kick in again late. Maybe at this longer distance he can hang around long enough to inherit the win. As for Wonder Gadot, her TimeformUS numbers are on par with the best in this field.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Cappercorner)
Winner: #7 King Zachary
On the board: #9 Good Magic, #3 Gronkowski
Longshot I like: #7 King Zachary
Analysis: King Zachary encountered trouble throughout in his last start (wide both turns and shuffled back going into the final turn), so expect a sharp improvement on the stretch out to 10 furlongs. Good Magic is a deserving favorite based on his resume and always seems to put himself in a good position, but his speed figures don't tower over the field and he could be vulnerable at the distance. Gronkowski ran great when breaking slow and closing into a slow pace in the Belmont, but I need to see one more before becoming a full-fledged believer.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #4 Bravazo, #2 Wonder Gadot
Longshot I like: #11 Catholic Boy
Analysis: Good Magic is the horse to beat. He should be able to settle comfortably near the front. Bravazo will be right there to try and run him down in the stretch. I don’t think we’ve gotten to the bottom of the filly Wonder Gadot. If she gets into a stalking position from a difficult post position, she’ll be dangerous.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #9 Good Magic
On the board: #2 Wonder Gadot, #3 Gronkowski
Longshot I like: #11 Catholic Boy
Analysis: I wouldn't be surprised to see the favorite picked off -- this is the Graveyard of Champions, after all -- and there certainly are horses that could beat Good Magic if he doesn't repeat his Haskell form. The filly Wonder Gadot is worth taking a chance on if you're looking to beat the favorite, and Gronkowski is intriguing with a runner-up Belmont Stakes performance. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Catholic Boy put in a major performance, even with the surface switch.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #2 Wonder Gadot
On the board: #3 Gronkowski, #9 Good Magic
Longshot I like: #7 King Zachary
Analysis: Top pick is Medaglia d'Oro's girl, Wonder Gadot. It wasn't too long ago another of his daughters, Rachel Alexandra, ran lights out at the Spa. No issues with surface, distance or the boys, but she is going to need a break and some great strategic piloting. Gronkowski and Good Magic round out my board hitters with King Zachary, the Dale Romans entry, getting an excuse from me for his last outing. I will box my exotics and play Wonder Gadot across the board. Love Curlin babies? Box them in a 5-9-10-7 superfecta that would be historic.