Expert picks: Tampa Bay Derby picks, predictions
The group includes track record holder Win Win Win, the Sam F. Davis hero Well Defined and Dream Maker, who ships in for top connections off a strong season-opening victory. Given that, we tasked our Horse Racing Nation contributors with handicapping the field and find a few longshots.
Here are the picks:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #4 Dream Maker
On the board: #6 Outshine, #7 Win Win Win
Longshot I like: #10 Tacitus
Analysis: Last month, Dream Maker returned off a long layoff to crush in his 3-year-old debut. The second-place finisher in that race, Courtyard, came back to win in his next start. Dream Maker can sit off a live pace and make the first move, and he has posted sharp works in the mornings since his race. Outshine won his first start back off a seven-month layoff, plus you can never count out Todd Pletcher in this race. Outshine posted a bullet five-furlong work and should love the added distance. Win Win Win posted a solid Beyer winning at Tampa last time out. He is 3-for-4 in his career, but those starts came sprinting. His pedigree suggests two turns will be no problem, but can he control his speed to be there at the end? Tacitus hasn't raced in four months and also gets Lasix for the first time. As the first foal out of Eclipse champion Close Hatches, his pedigree suggests two turns are in his wheelhouse. Bill Mott would not have sent him here if he wasn't confident.
The play: 4-6-7-10 superfecta box.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #6 Outshine
On the board: #10 Tacitus, #4 Dream Maker
Longshot I like: #2 Sir Winston
Analysis: Outshine will sit mid-pack off a lively pace set by Zenden, Well Defined and Dunph. Pletcher is a pro at spotting his 3-year-olds on the Derby trail, and this is Outshine's time to, well, shine. Tacitus should be right behind Outshine and could be overlooked after stablemate (and workmate) Hidden Scroll's fourth-place effort last weekend. He gets Lasix, comes in off solid works and should like the pace setup. Having been off since November, I can't trust Tacitus to win, but he'll be there on the board. Rounding out my plays are the two Mark Casse trainees, Dream Maker and Sir Winston. Sir Winston is here to press the pace for Dream Maker, but he could get a winning ride from Julien Leparoux if other speed falters. Win Win Win is the best of the local runners.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #4 Dream Maker
On the board: #7 Win Win Win, #6 Outshine
Longshot I like: #10 Tacitus
Analysis: Dream Maker was highly regarded last year but never ran back to his sharp winning debut at Churchill Downs. He returned at Fair Grounds against optional claimers on Feb. 9 and ran away from that field in an outstanding effort. He owns a strong pedigree and projects a tactical trip under Florent Geroux. Win Win Win is an excellent sprinter exiting a big local seven-panel win in the Pasco. He is bred to go this far and probably wins this if he handles two turns. Outshine won two of three dirt sprints for Todd Pletcher, and he added blinkers and earned an improved number Feb. 10. Tacitus is bred to be any kind for Mott, and he faced some decent runners in both New York maiden starts last year.
The plays: #4 to win; exacta 4/6-7-10; exacta 6-7-10/4; trifecta 4-7/4-6-7-10/4-6-7-10.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #4 Dream Maker
On the board: #5 Well Defined, #11 Zenden
Longshot I like: #6 Outshine
Analysis: Dream Maker is back after a promising return. He looks like the one to beat but is by no means a single. He still needs to break well and will have some speed up front to work around. While Outshine has not raced a route of ground, Pletcher historically does well in the Tampa Bay Derby and Malibu Moon offspring out of Unbridled's Song mares are made to run two turns. Look out for Well Defined, who has hit the board in five of seven starts lifetime and wired the Sam F. Davis with blinkers on.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #4 Dream Maker
On the board: #7 Win Win Win, #10 Tacitus
Longshot I like: #2 Sir Winston
Analysis: Unlike the favorite Win Win Win, Dream Maker owns route experience and returned in style at Fair Grounds, winning by more than eight lengths with ease. The pace sets up for him in this spot. If Sir Winston, Tacitus or even Admire can get involved underneath Dream Maker, it will make the exacta payout worthwhile.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #4 Dream Maker
On the board: #7 Win Win Win, #5 Well Defined
Longshot I like: #1 Admire
Analysis: Win Win Win looks dangerous given his numbers and has shown the ability to rally after poor breaks, but I'll be looking for Dream Maker to hit the wire first here. With a runaway victory in a two-turn Fair Grounds allowance, he looked Derby trail-ready, and this is the right spot to test him. Well Defined runs well over this track but will face more pressure here than in the Sam F. Davis.