Expert picks: Tampa Bay Derby 2020 predictions, longshots
Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby will award 50 Kentucky Derby 2020 qualifying points to its winner -- and which of the 12 contenders will move on to Churchill Downs is a point of contention for Horse Racing Nation's handicappers.
Just one sided with Sole Volante, the 2-1 morning line favorite out of his local Feb. 8 victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), while others are looking to the Florida-bred stakes winner Chance It and Gulfstream Park maiden winner Spa City.
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Ahead of post time for Tampa Bay Downs' featured 11th race, at 5:32 p.m. ET, here's how HRN's contributors handicapped the Tampa Bay Derby. While forming your own opinions, check out free past performances.
Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #2 Spa City
On the board: #4 Chance It, #7 Sole Volante
Longshot I like: #1 Texas Swing
Analysis: Spa City broke his maiden going nine furlongs last time out. He should be able to show speed or sit off the pace cutting back in distance. Pedigree suggests this should be in his wheelhouse. Spa City comes in off a sharp five-furlong drill at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida and looks in top form at the right time. Chance It was rerouted here after drawing the far outside post for last weekend's Fountain of Youth (G2). He received a better draw here and has high-percentage jockey Paco Lopez aboard. His lone run at this distance was a romp by 7 1/2 lengths against Florida-breds. Sole Volante benefitted from a hot pace and speed collapse in the Sam F. Davis; however, he benefits from a local win over the track. This is same jockey (Florent Geroux) and trainer (Patrick Biancone) combination that won the Fountain of Youth with Ete Indien. His lone loss came against Chance It in January. Texas Swing was a game maiden winner over this track on the Sam F. Davis undercard. He gets Javier Castellano in the saddle this time. From the 1 post, expect him to use his early speed and take the short way around to try and upset the field. I will play a 2-4-7-1 superfecta.
Nick Costa
Winner: #4 Chance It
On the board: #7 Sole Volante, #9 Unrighteous
Longshot I like: #9 Unrighteous
Analysis: Chance It was scratched from last week’s Fountain of Youth to run here with a far better post. First or second in all six lifetime starts, he just missed sweeping the series for Florida-breds. He can run fast early; it’s just a matter of him holding off the closers late. Sole Volante appears to have plenty of pace to chase here, so he could again demonstrate his extremely impressive late kick that landed him the Sam F. Davis last race. Unrighteous is still a maiden, so it’s hard to back win for the win against this group. However, he improved dramatically last race, and his speed figure from that event is on par with the top two. He now adds blinkers, a move his trainer often excels with.
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #2 Spa City
On the board: #7 Sole Volante, #4 Chance It
Longshot I like: #1 Texas Swing
Analysis: While he's facing winners for the first time, I saw enough of Spa City in his maiden win to put him on top here. It's going to be a tough task keeping Chance It from the winner's circle, but stranger things have happened. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.'s contender looks best on paper. I do like longshot Texas Swing to get out in front and lead most of the way. He can hold on for a piece. Sole Volante may need to get closer to the top tier of runners earlier this time.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #4 Chance It
On the board: #7 Sole Volante, #5 Market Analysis
Longshot I like: #1 Texas Swing
Analysis: From his better post, Chance It can show early-pressing versatility for high-percentage trainer Joseph Jr. Sole Volante exits a sharp, late-running tally in the Sam F. Davis, and he got plenty of pace help that day. Spa City and Unrighteous finished 1-2 in a highly rated maiden race on Feb. 8. Market Analysis stalked and scored in his seven-panel debut as the favorite on Jan. 25, and runner-up Attachment Rate returned to score big and is entered in the Gotham (G3). Texas Swing stretched out and promptly graduated second time out on Feb. 8.
Wagers: #4 to win; exacta 4/1-2-5; exacta 1-2-5/4; trifecta 1-2-5-9/1-2-5-9/4-7
Winner: #5 Market Analysis
On the board: #2 Spa City, #4 Chance It
Longshot I like: #9 Unrighteous
Analysis: Even after only breaking his maiden by 3/4 of a length at Gulfstream in his career debut, Market Analysis continues to look like a horse with a bright future. He's consistently sharp in the mornings, such as in Market Analysis' Feb. 29 work with stablemate Unrighteous (notice how Market Analysis outlasts him in the gallop out after the second turn). For value, though, Unrighteous has a case after his strong second to Spa City. He also offers the right odds at 20-1.
Olivia Newman
Winner: #7 Sole Volante
On the board: #4 Chance It, #2 Spa City
Longshot I like: #3 Relentless Dancer
Analysis: Sole Volante is the class of the field, proving he can handle this sort of company, and this should mark another step in the right direction for him. He likes the track, and he’s coming off a tightening seven-furlong work. Chance It, who defeated open competition in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream, has also been sharp in the morning and will give Sole Volante all he can handle. Spa City is looking to step up this weekend. He’s been training great, too, and won going longer than this previously.