Expert picks: Stephen Foster predictions, longshots
You know you're in for a fun betting race when the veteran morning line maker, Mike Battaglia, admits he had a tough time sorting out the field of 12 for Saturday's Grade 2, $600,000 Stephen Foster.
Ahead of post time for Race 8 on a stakes-laden "Downs After Dark" card -- NBCSN will air the Foster at 9:47 p.m. ET -- the Horse Racing Nation crew handicapped the 1 1/8-mile Breeders' Cup Classic qualifier.
Before coming to conclusions of your own, check out free past performances. Good luck!
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #4 Seeking the Soul
On the board: #12 Yoshida, #6 Gift Box
Longshot I like: #5 Alkhaatam
Analysis: Seeking the Soul has hit the top three slots in 9 of 11 races at Churchill Downs, including a second-place finish last fall in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and a win in the 2017 Clark Handicap (G1). Goes third off the layoff, a category in which trainer Dallas Stewart wins at 30%. Yoshida has limited dirt experience but managed a win and a close fourth in a pair of Grade 1s last season, then beat half the field in Dubai to begin this year. He cuts back to a more favorable distance. Gift Box invades from California following a narrow loss in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). Tackles a much larger field than what he’s been facing and has other speed horses to contend with, but his class must be respected. Alkhaatam has registered back-to-back big wins. He leaps in class here, but continuing improvement from this lightly raced colt could land him right in the mix.
Jonathan Lintner (@JonathanLintner)
Winner: #10 Quip
On the board: #6 Gift Box, #12 Yoshida
Longshot I like: #3 Runaway Ghost
Analysis: Plenty of respect for the top choices here, but Quip may be best suited to win at this distance and on this date. Gift Box runs back from a hard-fought defeat on Memorial Day, while Yoshida exits Dubai, and you just never know how they'll perform in that scenario. There's been no true gauge Runaway Ghost's true talent -- his other foray to Kentucky was a bit of a debacle -- making him tough to ignore. Given 10-1 morning line odds on Quip, I'm playing win/place and may consider an exacta with him underneath Gift Box and Yoshida. If you're developing trifecta and superfecta tickets, include Runaway Ghost.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #6 Gift Box
On the board: #9 Tom's d'Etat, #4 Seeking the Soul
Longshot I like: #5 Alkhaatam
Analysis: Alkhaatam looks like a vastly improved horse in his two 2019 races compared to the last two years. He broke his maiden by more than seven lengths in March at Oaklawn, and then finished strong to win a local allowance race by more than three lengths. The speed figures do not back up this opinion, however, and Gift Box is in razor-sharp form. But Alkhaatam is worth a shot considering there are no superstars to beat here.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride
Winner: #6 Gift Box
On the board: #7 Tenfold, #10 Quip
Longshot I like: #4 Seeking the Soul
Analysis: Gift Box is coming into this race off a game effort against Vino Rosso. I think he will appreciate the shorter distance than the Gold Cup's 10 furlongs. With that being said, I think Tenfold will also relish the distance. He is coming off a confidence-boosting win at 1 1/4 miles in the Pimlico Special (G3). Quip enters this spot fresh and seems to be developing late into a nice older horse. Seeking The Soul is one that must be included in a race at Churchill Downs, as his best efforts have come under the Twin Spires.