Expert picks: Stephen Foster Handicap predictions, longshots
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
Racing will have a new Grade 1 winner following Saturday night's $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap, the centerpiece of a Churchill Downs night racing card packed with five graded stakes. To add, Triple Crown winner Justify will parade between races earlier in the evening.
NBC Sports Network will broadcast the Foster, which goes off at 9:39 p.m. ET. Here's who Horse Racing Nation's contributors like to win the 1 1/8-mile race:
Jeffrey Byrnes,
Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #9 Pavel
Longshot I like: #2 Patch
Analysis: Backyard Heaven is the buzz horse. His win in the Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks day was breathtaking and shows he loves the Churchill Downs surface. This will only be his fifth career start, but his Beyer numbers have improved with every race. With a lot of speed in the race, he can sit off the pace and get a good stalking trip. If he displays the same kick he showed last month, everyone will be running for second. Irish War Cry finally got back to form with a big win in the Pimlico Special, but he has shown to be inconsistent in his career. Cooler nighttime temperatures will help a horse that has dealt with electrolyte imbalances, and he'll be one of the pace setters. Pavel sees likely the easiest field he's faced in a while. The No. 9 post will allow him to sit off the pace. Patch returned a strong allowance winner last out, and coming off a seven-month layoff, he needed the race, a good pace and he's got a shot. I'll go 6-8-9-2 Superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #9 Pavel
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #6 Backyard Heaven
Longshot I like: #3 Hawaakom
Analysis: Pavel has been on the fringes in some tough spots against Grade 1 competition. This group isn't as tough, and that could prove to be the relief he needs to break through. Irish War Cry broke from the rail and went gate to wire in the slop last out in a nice effort. When this colt runs his best, he's good, but he's also prone to throw in duds, so there needs to be more consistency. Backyard Heaven could be any kind. The lightly raced colt has rapidly climbed to the top of the class ladder without really being tested. Hawaakom likes the Churchill strip with six in the money placings from nine starts. Should the pace fall apart, he could light up the tote board.
Candice Curtis (
@skipaway2000)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #2 Patch, #1 Honorable Duty
Longshot I like: #1 Honorable Duty
Analysis: Backyard Heaven should get his breakout Grade 1 win in this spot. He will rate just off a pressured pace and power home just like he did in the Alysheba. Patch will close into this pace, as well as Hawaakom, but give the advantage to the fresh, one-eyed Pletcher trainee. Honorable Duty likes Churchill Downs, and though he faces tough rivals here, he could jump up for a piece.
Anthony Jaskulski, Across The Board (@anthonyjazz)
Winner: #7 Lookin At Lee
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #9 Pavel
Longshot I like: #7 Lookin At Lee
Analysis: Lookin At Lee's new approach of running on the pace early paid handsomely in his undercard allowance win at Churchill on Kentucky Derby day. Steve Asmussen is looking for a record three wins in this race with the colt. As no Gun Runner types emerges out of this pedestrian field, I think Lookin At Lee's got a good shot to upset.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #1 Honorable Duty, #8 Irish War Cry
Longshot I like: #7 Lookin At Lee
Analysis: Backyard Heaven went head and head with a Kentucky Derby winner and put him away with ease in the Alysheba. He is, on paper, the best horse in the field. Honorable Duty will be forwardly placed and also likes this track. I don't see Irish War Cry getting his way, and his only race at Churchill was an off-the-board Kentucky Derby run. Lookin at Lee found a new dimension last out and looks to win two in a row.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #2 Patch, #1 Honorable Duty
Longshot I like: #3 Hawaakom
Analysis: Backyard Heaven has the potential to be a leading older horse in a division that is lacking a superstar. With a quick pace a possibility, Patch could be picking up the pieces late, and Churchill lover Honorable Duty is 6-for-8 in the exacta in Louisville.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #7 Lookin At Lee, #8 Irish War Cry
Longshot I like: #2 Patch
Analysis: Pace will be fast, as Irish War Cry and Backyard Heaven are set to duel up front. Lookin at Lee, with his new running style, might even be sent up there. Patch cannot win this race, but he can keep an eye on them and close in for a piece.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #8 Irish War Cry
On the board: #6 Backyard Heaven, #2 Patch
Longshot I like: #9 Pavel
Analysis: I am betting the improving Irish War Cry over the talented but lightly raced Backyard Heaven. This is a soft field and wouldn't be surprised to see longshot Pavel win. He raced against the best last year with little success. This is a softer race for him.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #1 Honorable Duty, #2 Patch
Longshot I like: #9 Pavel
Analysis: Backyard Heaven is clearly the one to beat, and Pavel is your perpetual fourth-place finisher here. Honorable Duty really likes the track, and Patch should be set up nicely off his last race. Depending on your budget, I'd play some combination of those four, singling Backyard Heaven on top, and perhaps also use Lookin At Lee and Irish War Cry underneath.
NBC Sports Network will broadcast the Foster, which goes off at 9:39 p.m. ET. Here's who Horse Racing Nation's contributors like to win the 1 1/8-mile race:
Jeffrey Byrnes,
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #9 Pavel
Longshot I like: #2 Patch
Analysis: Backyard Heaven is the buzz horse. His win in the Alysheba on Kentucky Oaks day was breathtaking and shows he loves the Churchill Downs surface. This will only be his fifth career start, but his Beyer numbers have improved with every race. With a lot of speed in the race, he can sit off the pace and get a good stalking trip. If he displays the same kick he showed last month, everyone will be running for second. Irish War Cry finally got back to form with a big win in the Pimlico Special, but he has shown to be inconsistent in his career. Cooler nighttime temperatures will help a horse that has dealt with electrolyte imbalances, and he'll be one of the pace setters. Pavel sees likely the easiest field he's faced in a while. The No. 9 post will allow him to sit off the pace. Patch returned a strong allowance winner last out, and coming off a seven-month layoff, he needed the race, a good pace and he's got a shot. I'll go 6-8-9-2 Superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #9 Pavel
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #6 Backyard Heaven
Longshot I like: #3 Hawaakom
Analysis: Pavel has been on the fringes in some tough spots against Grade 1 competition. This group isn't as tough, and that could prove to be the relief he needs to break through. Irish War Cry broke from the rail and went gate to wire in the slop last out in a nice effort. When this colt runs his best, he's good, but he's also prone to throw in duds, so there needs to be more consistency. Backyard Heaven could be any kind. The lightly raced colt has rapidly climbed to the top of the class ladder without really being tested. Hawaakom likes the Churchill strip with six in the money placings from nine starts. Should the pace fall apart, he could light up the tote board.
Candice Curtis (
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #2 Patch, #1 Honorable Duty
Longshot I like: #1 Honorable Duty
Analysis: Backyard Heaven should get his breakout Grade 1 win in this spot. He will rate just off a pressured pace and power home just like he did in the Alysheba. Patch will close into this pace, as well as Hawaakom, but give the advantage to the fresh, one-eyed Pletcher trainee. Honorable Duty likes Churchill Downs, and though he faces tough rivals here, he could jump up for a piece.
Anthony Jaskulski, Across The Board (@anthonyjazz)
Winner: #7 Lookin At Lee
On the board: #8 Irish War Cry, #9 Pavel
Longshot I like: #7 Lookin At Lee
Analysis: Lookin At Lee's new approach of running on the pace early paid handsomely in his undercard allowance win at Churchill on Kentucky Derby day. Steve Asmussen is looking for a record three wins in this race with the colt. As no Gun Runner types emerges out of this pedestrian field, I think Lookin At Lee's got a good shot to upset.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #1 Honorable Duty, #8 Irish War Cry
Longshot I like: #7 Lookin At Lee
Analysis: Backyard Heaven went head and head with a Kentucky Derby winner and put him away with ease in the Alysheba. He is, on paper, the best horse in the field. Honorable Duty will be forwardly placed and also likes this track. I don't see Irish War Cry getting his way, and his only race at Churchill was an off-the-board Kentucky Derby run. Lookin at Lee found a new dimension last out and looks to win two in a row.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #2 Patch, #1 Honorable Duty
Longshot I like: #3 Hawaakom
Analysis: Backyard Heaven has the potential to be a leading older horse in a division that is lacking a superstar. With a quick pace a possibility, Patch could be picking up the pieces late, and Churchill lover Honorable Duty is 6-for-8 in the exacta in Louisville.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #7 Lookin At Lee, #8 Irish War Cry
Longshot I like: #2 Patch
Analysis: Pace will be fast, as Irish War Cry and Backyard Heaven are set to duel up front. Lookin at Lee, with his new running style, might even be sent up there. Patch cannot win this race, but he can keep an eye on them and close in for a piece.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #8 Irish War Cry
On the board: #6 Backyard Heaven, #2 Patch
Longshot I like: #9 Pavel
Analysis: I am betting the improving Irish War Cry over the talented but lightly raced Backyard Heaven. This is a soft field and wouldn't be surprised to see longshot Pavel win. He raced against the best last year with little success. This is a softer race for him.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)
Winner: #6 Backyard Heaven
On the board: #1 Honorable Duty, #2 Patch
Longshot I like: #9 Pavel
Analysis: Backyard Heaven is clearly the one to beat, and Pavel is your perpetual fourth-place finisher here. Honorable Duty really likes the track, and Patch should be set up nicely off his last race. Depending on your budget, I'd play some combination of those four, singling Backyard Heaven on top, and perhaps also use Lookin At Lee and Irish War Cry underneath.
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