Expert picks: Southwest Stakes predictions, longshots
The 2019 renewal of the Southwest Stakes (G3) features an intriguing blend of local contenders and shippers. Six runners return from the Smarty Jones Stakes, and morning line favorite Cutting Humor leads a group of four outsiders. Before choosing how to bet Monday’s ninth race at Oaklawn Park, let's analyze the field:
The Favorite
#3 Cutting Humor (3-1) added blinkers and earned improved numbers in his last two starts for Todd Pletcher. The $400,000 purchase was clearly second best after lunging at the start Jan. 18 and will try to strike from mid-pack under John Velazquez. He earned strong late pace ratings in his last pair.
Value Win Contenders
#5 Jersey Agenda (5-1) figures to impact the pace, and his front-running optional claiming win at Oaklawn the day after the Smarty Jones puts him squarely in the mix throughout.
#7 Sueno (7-2) exits a decent runner-up finish in the Sham (G3), and Keith Desormeaux is good at spotting his Derby trail runners. The tactical type should be grinding away in the lane.
Live Longshots
#9 Bankit (10-1) got no pace help and never involved himself as the 3-2 favorite in the Smarty Jones. He should have won the Springboard Mile late last year and cruised from off the pace in a New York-bred stakes affair at one mile before that. Jose Ortiz hops aboard and he can compete with these on his best day.
Remaining Entrants
#1 Gray Attempt (7-2) stole the Smarty Jones, though he will almost certainly face more pressure at a slightly longer distance today. He has won three straight but be might be vulnerable in the stretch in this spot.
#2 Ninth Street (30-1) has improved since adding blinkers last summer, but his numbers are a bit light. He does his best running in the stretch and is one of five entrants for Steve Asmussen.
#4 Boldor (12-1) finished a close-up third in the Smarty Jones, but the top three finishers held their positions throughout and I am not sure how far he wants to go.
#6 Super Steed (20-1) was no match for Gray Attempt in his last pair, and his lone win was in a sprint race at Churchill Downs in the slop.
#8 Six Shooter (20-1) exits an OK fourth in the Smarty Jones and adds blinkers for this engagement. He finished in the top three in six of eight starts and can spice up the exotics if the equipment change moves him forward.
#10 Long Range Toddy (10-1) saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post and missed by a neck in the Smarty Jones. He is in for a wide, stalking trip Monday and rarely gets respect at the betting windows.
#11 Olympic Runner (15-1) followed up a fourth-place finish in his turf sprint bow with a front running win as the chalk in a maiden route originally scheduled for the turf Jan. 26. He drew poorly and has never raced on a fast track.
Wagering Strategies
#9 to win
Exacta 9/3-5-7
Exacta 3-5-7/9
Trifecta 3-5-7/ALL/9