Expert picks: Shadwell Turf Mile 2018 predictions
In what ranks as one of the best Grade 1 betting opportunities outside of the Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup, Keeneland's $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile has attracted an overflow field for Saturday's running on "Fall Stars" weekend.
RELATED: Free Shadwell Turf Mile past performances
NBC will broadcast races in Lexington, Ky., starting at 4:30 p.m. ET leading up to post time for Race 10, the Turf Mile, at 5:49 p.m.
Let's get right to the handicapping:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #9 Analyze It
On the board: #5 Heart to Heart, #6 Synchrony
Longshot I like: #2 Divisidero
Analysis: Analyze It finally gets away from Catholic Boy and returns to Keeneland, where he romped in his 3-year-old debut. Chad Brown sending this sophomore against older horses shows confidence. Analyze It has never finished outside the exacta, and with speed up front, he can sit back and make a run at what may his best distance. Seven years old and still going strong, Heart to Heart won the Maker's 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland earlier this year, but has shown that if he not in front, he can fold. Synchrony has never finished off the board since switching to turf, going 5-for-9, and comes in off two strong stakes wins at Monmouth Park. He will need pace, but he should get it here and offers a closing kick that could be enough. Divisidero did not get a desired pace setup in the Woodbine Mile but also stands to improve here. I will play a 9-5-6-2 superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #11 Almanaar
On the board: #14 Bound for Nowhere, #7 Qurbaan
Longshot I like: #5 Heart to Heart
Analysis: Almanaar has not raced at this distance since arriving in America two years ago, but he did have success at it earlier in his career. He’s already a Grade 1 winner and was a bit unlucky as the runner-up in the Arlington Million (G1). Bound for Nowhere is undefeated racing in the States and just missed in a sharp effort at Ascot in June in the Diamond Jubilee (G1), so the class is there. Qurbaan returned after being away for nearly a year to score in a Grade 2 at Saratoga and attracts Mike Smith to ride. Heart to Heart is a multiple Grade 1 winner who was denied late in this event last year.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #11 Almanaar
On the board: #5 Heart to Heart, #9 Analyze It
Longshot I like: #1 Next Shares
Analysis: This is Almanaar's shot at a Grade 1 win in 2018. The pace setup favors his late run, and Javier Castellano in the irons is a plus. Heart to Heart loves Keeneland and has only one off-the-board finish at this track over a yielding turf course. Analyze It will benefit from a cut back in distance, but I think he's over his head with these older turf stars. Next Shares could pop up at a big price if the pace completely melts down.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog (@jchorak)
Winner: #11 Almanaar
On the board: #9 Analyze It, #2 Divisidero
Longshot I like: #13 Big Score
Analysis: Almanaar exits a fine second in the Arlington Million (G1), and the two-time flat mile winner finished full of run at 8.5 furlongs on June 8. His sophomore stablemate Analyze it cuts back in distance (2-for-2 at one mile), and he easily won his lone local turf try. Divisidero got no pace help in the Woodbine Mile. He gets speed to chase Saturday. Big Score is a local stakes winner with a decent late kick. My plays: #11 to win; exacta box 9-11; trifecta 9-11/ALL/2-13.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@casey_laughter)
Winner: #9 Analyze It
On the board: #14 Bound for Nowhere, #6 Synchrony
Longshot I like: #11 Amanaar
Analysis: This race might be the most competitive of the fall! I think backing up to a mile is a great idea for Analyze It. It is his first time against older horses, but he is a game horse who should handle it. Bound for Nowhere likes Keeneland and has won here in the past. Synchrony is on a roll and looks to make it three in a row, but I would not be surprised if he won given the setup.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Capppercorner)
Winner: #9 Analyze It
On the board: #1 Next Shares, #6 Synchrony
Longshot I like: #1 Next Shares
Analysis: Analyze It owns a win over the course and is undefeated at races under nine furlongs. He sports a perfect stalking style, should lay just off the speed and get the jump on the deep closers. Next Shares is a deep closer that looks to save ground and make a big late run. He's a big price that should be include on all exotics. Synchrony has yet to miss the board going any distance on turf, so the ultra-consistent runner must be used in all exotics as well.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #11 Almanaar
On the board: #9 Analyze It, #6 Synchrony
Longshot I like: #5 Heart to Heart
Analysis: In Chad Brown I trust. Almanaar has won two stakes races at a mile in distance in Europe. There's enough speed in the race for his late closing kick. Analyze It, the son of Point of Entry, takes on older horses for the first time and gets a three-pound allowance. He's won at this distance before, preceding his pair of narrow losses to Catholic Boy. Heart To Heart is always a threat, especially if he gets the lead.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #11 Almanaar
On the board: #14 Bound for Nowhere, #7 Qurbaan
Longshot I like: #6 Synchrony
Analysis: Almanaar ran a solid second to Arlington Million winner Robert Bruce and should like eight panels. Wesley Ward trains Bound for Glory and has prepped well for a contentious field, plus knows the surface. Qurbann, the second of Shadwell Racing's stars running in their marquee event, scores Smith in the saddle. My longshot Synchrony picks up Corey Lanerie as his pilot.