Expert picks: See how HRN writers play the Lexington

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 winds to a close Saturday at Keeneland with the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes, which awards 20-10-6-4-2 points to its top five finishers.

Holy Bull (G3) winner Hades, most recently fifth in the Florida Derby (G1), was specifically entered into the Lexington to earn his way into the Kentucky Derby. Beyond him, the field is the customary mix of horses who tried the Derby trail alongside newer faces working toward spring and summer spots.

This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:

Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Encino

On the board: Liberal Arts

Long shot I like: Lucky Jeremy

Analysis: I would love to see The Wine Steward and Hades get bet heavily here, as I like the outside trio quite a bit led by Encino at 5-1 morning line. Lucky Jeremy is definitely a front-end threat.

Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod

Winner: Lucky Jeremy

On the board: Hades, The Wine Steward

Long shot I like: How's Ur Attitude

Analysis: With the notable exception of Sierra Leone, closers did not have it their way for the first 2 1/2 days of the Keeneland spring meet. Yes, some winners came from off the pace late Sunday, but it still felt like early speed was advantaged on the main track. Lucky Jeremy no doubt will be sent forward from his outside post by Gerardo Corrales. So will Hades from post 5, presuming he does not run into the trouble he had in the Florida Derby. For me the likelihood of value and bias have me keying Lucky Jeremy, whose third-place finish in the Sunland Derby looks better since Stronghold won the Santa Anita Derby. Hades has to hit the board, and The Wine Steward should in spite of his long layoff. A sprinkle on synthetic graduate How's Ur Attitude is in order, since he looks like he may find this distance to be his sweet spot.

Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Encino

On the board: Liberal Arts

Long shot I like: Lucky Jeremy

Analysis: Encino has been nearly perfect on the synthetic at Turfway and being by Nyquist, he should handle the main track fine. Nyquist offspring win at 18 percent in dirt routes, and 20 percent in synthetic routes. He's training well and in his last he beat Epic Ride, who came back to run a very nice third in the Blue Grass (G1). Liberal Arts is a very nice contender who comes in off of two troubled trips, so he gets a shot as well.

Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Lucky Jeremy

On the board: Hades, The Wine Steward

Long shot I like: Footprint

Analysis: Encino was a serious contender in the Blue Grass last week but scratched for this spot; he is proven at 1 1/16 miles, has good tactical versatility, and his pedigree strongly supports the switch to dirt. It's do or die time for Hades, but the race should set up well for his forward running style. The Wine Steward has not raced since last year but he is Grade 1 placed at Keeneland and he can use his tactical speed to good effect. Footprint doesn't show the sharpest early speed but can get into contention in time and he is consistent enough to box on for a share.