Expert picks: See how HRN writers play the Kentucky Oaks
The Grade 1, $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks on Friday at Churchill Downs is one of the feature races in the 3-year-old filly division. With a full field of 14 starters including both proven favorites and long shots with upside, the race is an excellent wagering opportunity.
The morning-line favorite is Tarifa, winner of both the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in New Orleans. However, with foes like the champion Just F Y I, Ashland (G1) winner Leslie's Rose, Fantasy (G3) winner Thorpedo Anna and more, whoever cracks this puzzle will get paid handsomely.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Just F Y I
On the board: Thorpedo Anna
Long shot I like: Where's My Ring
Analysis: Just F Y I is the champ, she is training like a beast this week, and she is the one they all have to beat. Where's My Ring and Thorpedo Anna can hit the board, use these with Tarifa and Into Champagne underneath.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Ways and Means
On the board: Our Pretty Woman
Long shot I like: Where's My Ring
Analysis: I’m bullish on Ways and Means and see her as the most likely winner. I’ll bet her to win and key her with my two longshot hoping for a score if it comes up Yahtzee.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Just F Y I
On the board: Power Squeeze, Tarifa
Long shot I like: Lemon Muffin
Analysis: A better trip at Keeneland last month might have kept Just F Y I undefeated. The fact that she was coming off a layoff is a reasonable alibi for her loss to Leslie's Rose in the Ashland, and her Frizette win showed she can handle a wet track. It does not feel like Tarifa is moving forward in her progression, but she always find a way to hit the board. Power Squeeze should be a big overlay, and her four-race heater cannot be ignored. Lemon Muffin's fizzer in the Fantasy looks more to me like a draw-a-line-through-it circumstance, so I am hoping the public really does back off of her and leave her at 30-1. That means more for me.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Leslie's Rose
On the board: Tarifa, Where's My Ring
Long shot I like: Lemon Muffin
Analysis: Leslie's Rose woke up trying two turns for the first time in the Ashland, and can get a clean outside trip over a track that can play fairly to horses drawn outside. Tarifa showed in the biggest races in the perennially live Fair Grounds series, and runs well on either slop or fast footing. Where's My Ring woke up in the Gazelle (G3) in fast, stalk-and-pounce fashion. Though Lemon Muffin disappointed in the Fantasy, her Honeybee (G3) looked like a horse who woke up on the stretch out; if D. Wayne Lukas is right that she was just under the weather that day, the price will be right to bet that the Honeybee was the real Lemon Muffin.