Expert picks: See how HRN writers play the Kentucky Derby

The $5 million Kentucky Derby happens Saturday afternoon. A full field of 20 is slated to enter the starting gate, making the race a betting bonanza unlike anything else on the American racing calendar.

The morning-line favorite and the market leader through early wagering is 2023 juvenile champion Fierceness. Blue Grass (G1) winner Sierra Leone has held strong as the second betting choice. However, there are appealing exotic wagering opportunities at all levels of the market.

This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:

Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Fierceness

On the board: Forever Young, Epic Ride

Long shot I like: Stronghold

Analysis: I usually don't like to play favorites, but Fierceness is just too good when he's good. I think he had excuses in his flops, and he has rewarded me for sticking with him in all weather. I'm not too concerned with the outside post, but he does have a fast horse on his outside. With the pace setting up to be quite swift, I can see the closers filling out the superfecta. My top long shot, Stronghold, can provide a lot of value paired with more aggressively backed Forever Young and Sierra Leone.

Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Forever Young

On the board: Honor Marie

Long shot I like: Epic Ride

Analysis: This is Japan’s year, but if it’s not then I’m really going to swing here with Honor Marie, who should improve, and Epic Ride, who will be way underbet off the also-eligible list.

Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod

Winner: Fierceness

On the board: Domestic Product, Just a Touch

Long shot I like: Honor Marie

Analysis: This is not complicated. Fierceness is the best horse in the field and the most likely winner, as long as he gets out of the gate. Whether keying him or using him defensively, he has to be prominent on tickets. The other Brad and the other Chad should hit the board. Just a Touch was an impressive second in the Blue Grass, and I admit I am flying in the face of the Final Fractions Theory by saying that. Domestic Product is coming into his own as a late-blooming 3-year-old and may live up to the high expectations placed on him by his connections. Honor Marie is the little horse who could and might be less traffic-stymied than the more ballyhooed closer Sierra Leone. He certainly will carry a better price.

Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Honor Marie

On the board: Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom

Long shot I like: Just Steel

Analysis: Honor Marie found his best in his third start last year and comes into the Kentucky Derby at the same part of his form cycle. He likes Churchill, he gets a hot pace in front of him, and his stamina breeding is appealing. Sierra Leone, who made an impressive sustained run in the Blue Grass, and Catching Freedom, who finished well in the Louisiana Derby (G2), also should be finishing well. Among the long shots, Just Steel consistently showed up for a piece in Arkansas, and his better races are good enough to sneak a piece of the exotics.

Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Sierra Leone

On the board: Catching Freedom, Honor Marie

Long shot I like: Epic Ride

Analysis: Sierra Leone has done special things last year. In the Risen Star (G2), there wasn't much pace, which usually hinders closers. But no matter, he rolled from the back of the pack to win with authority. That's not normal. That's special. Last year, Mage had done special things for a young horse leading into Derby so I'm going to stick with the eye-test and play the special looking horse. As for the Risen Star, the 3-4-5 finishers returned to win the Louisiana Derby, win the Wood Memorial (G2) and run second in the Louisiana Derby. Not bad for a February prep race. 

Catching Freedom and Honor Marie are serious horses coming into the Derby the right way, so I'm playing the 2,4,7 almost equally, as you'll get better odds on Catching Freedom and Honor Marie. 

As for Epic Ride, he'll break from the outside post and has the speed to secure good position near the front. He ran a strong third in the Blue Grass in only his first start on the dirt, so let's see what he can do at 90-1 here.