Expert picks: See how HRN writers play the Belmont

The series of 3-year-old classics draws to a close Saturday with the Belmont Stakes. The final jewel of the Triple Crown, which will be run at 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga due to continuing construction at Belmont, drew a field of eight. 

The marquee runners are all familiar faces from the Kentucky Derby podium: Sovereignty, Journalism and Baeza. However, interesting spoiler candidates include Wood Memorial (G1) winner Rodriguez, Peter Pan (G3) winner Hill Road and more.

This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:

Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Baeza

On the board: Journalism

Long shot I like: Heart of Honor 

Analysis: I think the compulsion to not pick one of the classic winners has forced my brethren into Baeza by default. My sense is that he will be a clear third choice in the exotics so I will key him in those plays and also try to sneak Heart of Honor in there, who I think will be ridden to crash the party underneath and could maybe get a sliver in his second start stateside.

Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod

Winner: Baeza

On the board: Journalism, Sovereignty 

Long shot I like: Hill Road

Analysis: This feels like exactly the right setup for Baeza. He will not be making up nearly as much ground as he faced in the Kentucky Derby, and the pace setup from Rodríguez and Crudo should suit his rating style perfectly. Horizontally, I will include Journalism and Sovereignty defensively. Hill Road finds a spot deep in my verticals because of the early pace. Baeza, though, is the key.

MarkMidland, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Baeza

On the board: Journalism 

Long shot I like: Hill Road

Analysis: It is tough to split the top three here and when all is said and done, Journalism might be the best horse. But Sovereignty and Baeza come in fresh, so they have a slight advantage. The pace shouldn't be as hot as the Kentucky Derby, so that could work against Sovereignty. Baeza will be the best price, so that's why I'm going with him. 

As for my play, I am going to key Hill Road in the superfecta:

$4 superfecta: 2,6,7 with 2,6,7 with 2,3,6,7 with 1

$1 superfecta: 2,6,7 with 2,6,7 with 1 with 2,3,6,7

Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation

Winner: Baeza

On the board: Sovereignty, Journalism 

Long shot I like: Crudo

Analysis: Baeza came close to holding off Journalism in his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, and then came close to catching him in the Kentucky Derby. 1 1/4 miles is his wheelhouse, he is tactically versatile, and he gets a good gate and not the parking lot post he had in the Kentucky Derby.

Of course, Sovereignty and Journalism both deserve respect given their consistent campaigns. Sovereignty is slightly preferred between the two due to the extra rest, and the fact that he won their head-to-head at Churchill Downs. Among the new shooters, Crudo intrigues most. He drew outside of the other speed, Rodriguez, and even though he could just try to wire it, he is lightly-enough raced to improve and maybe even show another dimension if he must.