Expert picks: See how HRN writers play Preakness 2024
The $2 million Preakness Stakes, the second jewel of the Triple Crown, happens Saturday afternoon at Pimlico. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan, the morning-line favorite after the scratch of Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Muth, will try to carry the Triple Crown dreams of his connections another mile and three sixteenths.
Seven other foes stand in his way, however, including Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Catching Freedom and improving new face Tuscan Gold. Bob Baffert also returns to try to win his ninth Preakness. Even though he had to scratch Muth on Wednesday due to a fever, Santa Anita Derby (G1) second-place winner Imagination lines up to represent the barn.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Imagination
On the board: Tuscan Gold
Long shot I like: Just Steel
Analysis: Lone speed is one of the most powerful weapons in a horse race, so why ignore it here just because it's the Preakness Stakes? Imagination should get a clear lead and coast from there to give Frankie Dettori his first American classic victory. If things don't work well on the front end, then Tuscan Gold is the best play to get job done. I don't necessarily think he's any more likely than the Derby winner or Catching Freedom, but he'll be the best price of the three.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Imagination
On the board: Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold
Long shot I like: Uncle Heavy
Analysis: I waited and waited and waited to finalize my opinion, because the weather forecast kept changing. Now that it looks certain to be wet, Imagination being on the front end could have the only clean ride of the eight starters. Considering his Southwest Stakes (G3) win in the mud, Mystik Dan makes this an easy exacta box. Uncle Heavy may be 2-for-2 on wet tracks, but the competition is much better here than it was in those.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Tuscan Gold
On the board: Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom
Long shot I like: Uncle Heavy
Analysis: Chad Brown has won the Preakness twice with lightly-raced horses, and his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby suggests Tuscan Gold comes in even more class-proven than Cloud Computing or Early Voting. This improving horse is tactical enough to work out a good trip. Wet weather and strong recent form recommend Mystik Dan, while Catching Freedom is a consistent horse who has found a late rally in every start. As a price for exotics, Uncle Heavy gets a jockey upgrade and should relish the showery conditions as well.
Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Tuscan Gold
On the board: Mystik Dan
Long shot I like: Just Steel
Analysis: I am going with Chad Brown's Tuscan Gold, who has been pointed to this race for some time now. He comes out of a productive Louisiana Derby. The winner, Catching Freedom, ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and the sixth-place finisher Antiquarian jumped up to win the Peter Pan last weekend. Look for Tuscan Gold to run a big race.