Expert picks: See how HRN writers play Blue Grass, Wood
The final weekend of 100-point Kentucky Derby preps, and both the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct drew large, intriguing mixes of prep winners and new faces.
The Blue Grass features a rematch between Dornoch and Sierra Leone, separated by a nose in the Remsen (G2) last fall and both winners of 50-point prep races since. The Wood Memorial field includes Gotham (G3) winner Deterministic, Withers winner Uncle Heavy and the up-and-coming Todd Pletcher trainee Tuscan Sky. However, with double-digit field sizes for each race questions of trip, form cycle, and who offers the most bang for the betting buck abound.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Blue Grass and the Wood Memorial.
Blue Grass Stakes
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Just a Touch
On the board: Dornoch
Long shot I like: Epic Ride
Analysis: I am taking the (more) lightly raced Just a Touch here, as I appreciate his upside more. I think Epic Ride will be overlooked off giving up lead last out at even-money, so he's an exotics key for me.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Dornoch
On the board: Sierra Leone
Long shot I like: Seize the Grey
Analysis: The common refrain on Dornoch is that he has had his way in all his wins. That suggests he cannot overcome trouble. His Sapling trip last year was not ideal, and he still nearly won the race. This time, he could be out front without much of a challenge throughout. Either way, I am counting on his being underrated to give me a little value. Sierra Leone is no slouch, but a dry track will help his rivals. Seize the Grey feels like the sort of horse who can be in the right place at the right time to hit the board late.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Dornoch
On the board: Good Money
Long shot I like: Seize the Grey
Analysis: Encino was the original top choice, but he has been scratched in favor of running in the Lexington. Dornoch stands to vie with Sierra Leone for favoritism, but his ability to get a good forward trip suits Keeneland well and he was already a dazzling winner over the course last fall. Good Money can get a more tactical trip than his short-priced stablemate from the Chad Brown barn (morning-line favorite Sierra Leone), and Seize the Grey should be in contention to find exotics on the return to dirt.
Wood Memorial
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Tuscan Sky
On the board: Deterministic
Long shot I like: El Grande O
Analysis: The HRN projected odds line says Tuscan Sky will be favored over Gotham winner Deterministic, so I'm hoping my employer is wrong and NYRA morning line oddsmaker David Aragona is right because I love Tuscan Sky in this spot and would absolutely bet him to win at his 4-1 morning-line price.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Resilience
On the board: Deterministic, Uncle Heavy
Long shot I like: Gettysburg Address
Analysis: With no lack of pace early in this race, Resilience has the style to be there first when the leaders back up turning into the stretch. His 97 late-pace rating, according to Brisnet, is evidence of that. Uncle Heavy also has that attractive, off the pace style that could come into play here. He will be a key horse underneath and actually could elevate to the top of the ticket depending on what the tote board says. Deterministic is a defensive play, but this field is a lot better than anything he has faced before. Gettysburg Address adds blinkers to get him closer to the pack, so he may not have as much ground to make up at the end, and he does have mister upsets Dallas Stewart as his new trainer.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Uncle Heavy
On the board: El Grande O, Tuscan Sky
Long shot I like: Deposition
Analysis: Gotham winner Deterministic could win this, but he will most certainly be an underlay so the value comes in playing against him. Uncle Heavy is already a winner over course and distance, and he can get a clean outside trip into a pace that stands to be lively. Tuscan Sky is improving at the right time, and El Grande O has consistently nabbed shares along this spur of the Derby trail. Deposition may be the longest shot on the board, but his best form has come in two-turn races and if he can run back to his effort in the Withers he could be this year's Lord Miles.