Expert picks: See how HRN writers are playing the Kentucky Oaks
The best 3-year-old fillies in the country take the stage Friday at Churchill Downs for the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. With the scratch of Five G the field is down to 13, but it is still large and competitive. Undefeated Good Cheer reigns at the top of the market, but she faces the stiffest test of her career and the race is open for some excellent betting value.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the race:
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast
Winner: Good Cheer
On the board: La Cara
Long shot I like: Tenma
Analysis: Good Cheer is absolutely the one to beat, no questions asked. With the scratch of Five G, La Cara has a much better shot at potentially wiring the field. Tenma is getting a bit overlooked here as she's coming in from the west coast, and Quietside has already proven that she can run with the big girls.
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Drexel Hill
On the board: Good Cheer
Long shot I like: Fondly
Analysis: Drexel Hill is a sleeper candidate for the Kentucky Oaks and I'm willing to make a bet that she's better than her PPs make her out to be. As a juvenile, she raced consistently every month from her debut in August through her board-hitting finish in the Silverbulletday. After a freshening she popped off with a win in the Busher. Improving speed figures and a switch to rider Ben Curtis have her high on my list for the Kentucky Oaks. Her late-running style is similar to favorite Good Cheer, so if you like the favorite, why not use Drexel Hill at 30-1?
Chip Gehrke, Division Rankings
Winner: Quietside
On the board: Good Cheer
Long shot I like: Take Charge Milady
Analysis: Quietside at 8-1 is a gift. She’s battled tougher competition than anyone else in the field this season and still has room to improve. If she runs back to her last out effort, she wins. Good Cheer enters with the buzz – undefeated in six – but hasn’t faced much heat this season and doesn't exactly tower over the field on paper. At a short price, the value just isn’t there. As for Take Charge Milady, she’s flying a bit under the radar but should love the added distance and could be sitting on a career best now that she’s past some hoof issues. Don’t sleep on her.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Good Cheer
On the board: Take Charge Milady
Long shot I like: Simply Joking
Analysis: The only thing not to like about Good Cheer is her price and the stigma of picking chalk in such a big race, but she is by far the most likely winner and value at greater than even money.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: La Cara
On the board: Good Cheer, Tenma
Long shot I like: Ballerina d'Oro
Analysis: Between workouts and recent form, La Cara appears to be headed in the right direction. Good Cheer is a deserving favorite, but Brad Cox keeps warning that she really will not stamp herself at the head of the class without Grade 1 franking, something her injured stablemate Immersive already has.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Tenma
On the board: Good Cheer, Simply Joking
Long shot I like: Early On
Analysis: Tenma has done very little wrong in six starts, and she has the tactical speed and stamina pedigree to be very appealing in the Kentucky Oaks. Good Cheer is tractable and has never done anything but win, though the price will be short. The scratch of Five G is great news for Simply Joking, but even if she doesn't make the top she does not need to carve the fractions to win. Among the serious long shots, Early On has appealing pace versatility and battled well in the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle, her final prep.