Expert picks: See how HRN writers are playing the Kentucky Derby
After over seven months of prep races, Kentucky Derby 2025 finally happens Saturday at Churchill Downs. The race is perhaps the most analyzed in the world, and the entire Horse Racing Nation team has been following since the beginning of that road with eyes on how the best 3-year-olds in the country will handle a taxing, perhaps chaotic 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in Louisville.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Kentucky Derby:
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast
Winner: Publisher
On the board: Luxor Café
Long shot I like: Sandman
Analysis: I'm swinging for the fences with Publisher. He's been on all my tickets this year and has improved with each start. The blinkers really helped in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and 13 is my lucky number. Luxor Café looks superb, and I'm throwing Sandman in as my "long shot" since he's exiting post 17. Plucky Coal Battle, west coast standout Journalism, and champ Citizen Bull will be on my tickets, as well.
Candice Curtis, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Journalism
On the board: Burnham Square
Long shot I like: Chunk of Gold
Analysis: I've never been as confident in a favorite in 10 years: Journalism is the one to beat. Pair him with pricey board-hitters Burnham Square, Luxor Café and Chunk of Gold to fill out your trifectas and superfectas.
Chip Gehrke, Division Rankings
Winner: American Promise
On the board: Journalism
Long shot I like: Luxor Café
Analysis: American Promise enters off a dominant Virginia Derby win and looks tailor-made for 1 1/4 miles. From post no. 5, he should work out a perfect stalking trip, and if the pace softens late, don’t be surprised if he’s the one they’re all trying to catch turning for home. Journalism is the clear favorite, and if he gets a clean trip and repeats either of his last two efforts, he’s the one to beat. But in a race like the Derby, it’s never that simple. Luxor Café ships in from Japan with serious buzz – some even say he’s a cut above last year’s standout, Forever Young. Maybe, just maybe, this is the year Japan finally claims the roses.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Journalism
On the board: Baeza
Long shot I like: Chunk of Gold
Analysis: Journalism is the top pick here, but from a wagering standpoint the key horse is Chunk of Gold, who will be among the bottom five choices in the win pool and sure to spice up any exotic wager in which he is involved.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: Luxor Café
On the board: East Avenue, Journalism
Long shot I like: Coal Battle
Analysis: A friend says we should be supple with our thinking when it comes to handicapping. As in don't be stubborn. With the weather changing the terms of engagement Saturday, I am doubling down on Luxor Café to win, because he has the most experience with off tracks. I am growing more bullish on Journalism, whose bloodlines have wet winners written all over them. If East Avenue gets out front as I hope, he could splash mud on a lot of trailers. And how about Coal Battle's record when things get sloppy? Supple, yes. But not stupid. At least until about 7:05 p.m. EDT.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: Burnham Square
On the board: Journalism, Sovereignty
Long shot I like: Chunk of Gold
Analysis: Burnham Square impressed in the Blue Grass (G1), reeling in the Keeneland-loving East Avenue, and should get an even more contested pace to chase after this time around. Journalism kept showing up on a strong California spur of the Kentucky Derby trail, and his tactical speed and distance pedigree make him dangerous. Sovereignty was likely not fully cranked for the Florida Derby (G1), and is already a graded-stakes winner at Churchill Downs. Chunk of Gold hasn't won a graded stakes yet, but rallied for second in a pair of Louisiana preps and can pick up more pieces this time.