Expert picks: Rebel Stakes 2020 predictions, longshots
While 2-for-2 and hailing from the successful Bob Baffert barn, Nadal will be trying two turns for the first time and was stuck on the rail in an eight-horse field when post positions were drawn.
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So is this a solid favorite, or is Nadal vulnerable to a defeat in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel. An assortment of Horse Racing Nation contributors weighed in below, with free past performances also available as you form an opinion on the race. Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #6 Three Technique
On the board: #4 Silver Prospector, #3 Basin
Longshot I like: #5 No Parole
Analysis: Three Technique comes in off a second in the local Smarty Jones Stakes back in January, but he was chasing a slow pace and never had a chance in a short stretch race. This time, he gets faster horses to rally behind, enters off a sharp drill last week and picks up jockey Luis Saez. With a race over the track, he has the right mix of qualifications to get this done. Silver Prospector won the Southwest (G3) in his last start, showing a new style of running closer to the pace. He figures to only improve in his third start of 2020 with the best last race Beyer Speed Figure and a top jockey/trainer combo in Ricardo Santana Jr. and Steve Asmussen. Basin returns off a six-month layoff going two turns for the first time. He won the Hopeful (G1) when last seen in runaway fashion. The talent is there, but is he ready for two turns? No Parole beat Louisiana-bred company by a combined 33 lengths in his three career starts. He takes on open company for the first time and brings plenty of speed to the table.
I will dismiss Nadal and play the 6-4-3-5 in a superfecta.
Nick Costa
Winner: #4 Silver Prospector
On the board: #1 Nadal, #3 Basin
Longshot I like: #8 American Theorem
Analysis: Silver Prospector has plenty of route experience and is the class of the field given his last victory. He could sit a trip similar to that of his Southwest where he drew clear late. Nadal was hyped before his maiden win in January and was a game winner of the San Vicente Stakes (G2) last month. His inside post and quick early foot could put him on or near the front end, but can he extend his speed? Basin was last seen six months ago winning in dynamic fashion. He’ll be tested going long here but has obvious talent. Basin may need a race following the layoff, but he should be in contention turning for home.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #1 Nadal
On the board: #6 Three Technique, #4 Silver Prospector
Longshot I like: #7 Coach Bahe
Analysis: Nadal was sharp throughout in both sprint victories at Santa Anita. He sure looks like a router from a physical standpoint, too, and Bob Baffert has had plenty of success with his 3-year-olds at Oaklawn. Three Technique finished first or second in all five of his prior starts. He stretched out and filled out the exacta from the outside post in the Smarty Jones on Jan. 24. Silver Prospector is versatile and frequently tries hard. He owns a pair of Derby points race victories at this distance going back to last year's Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in the slop. Coach Bahe ran well in both wet track dirt starts versus maidens. He will try to get involved late.
Wagers: #1 to win; exacta 1/4-6; exacta 4-6/1; trifecta 1-6/1-4-6/1-4-6-7
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #6 Three Technique
On the board: #1 Nadal, #4 Silver Prospector
Longshot I like: #8 American Theorem
Analysis: Three Technique gave a strong effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes but was compromised when Gold Street slipped away with slow fractions on slop, forcing him to settle for second. With a race this year under his belt, he could move forward with a peak effort. As for Nadal, he is a talented colt who won the San Vicente in his second start. But it is unclear whether he is significantly better than this field, or if his low price is due to hype.
Trifecta: 6 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,2,3,4,5,8
Olivia Newman
Winner: #1 Nadal
On the board: #4 Silver Prospector, #6 Three Technique
Longshot I like: #5 No Parole
Analysis: Nadal looks primed for a big effort this weekend, and I had to take notice when D. Wayne Lukas said he’s glad he didn’t enter a horse to oppose this favorite. He’s had some sharp, stamina-building works since winning that last spring. Nadal is ready. Silver Prospector owns a win over the track and proved last time he can rate in the right spot. Three Technique is flying under the radar for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. He faces a step up, but I think he could easily hit the board. No Parole's class rise is even more pronounced. He has speed but questions to answer.