Expert picks: Queen Elizabeth II predictions, longshots

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

Keeneland will host the 36th running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup on Saturday as Race 9, with post time at 5:30 p.m. ET. The Queen herself has a filly running in the nine-furlong turf route, as she sends Magnetic Charm to the gate with jockey Florent Geroux wearing the royal silks. That one will have to compete with a three-pronged attack from the Chad Brown barn including favored Cambier Parc.

Here's who Horse Racing Nation contributors like, and in coming to your own conlcusions, take a look at the free past performances.

 
Nick Costa

Winner: #7 Magnetic Charm

On the board: #5 Castle Lady, #3 Cambier Parc

Longshot I like: #9 Regal Glory

Analysis: Magnetic Charm recorded competitive speed and late pace figures when finishing second last month over a yielding track at Woodbine following a seven-week layoff. Given the connections, sometimes, you just have to go with a hunch bet. Castle Lady won a Group 1 event in just her third lifetime start. She gets back to the races since being off since June and adds first-time Lasix. If she returns to her springtime form, this 3-year old has every chance to win here against her elders. Cambier Parc made a good late rally to win the Del Mar Oaks (G1). She sports a 4-for-6 turf resume and is perfect at nine furlongs. 

Jarrod Horak

Winner: #8 Varenka

On the board: #3 Cambier Parc, #5 Castle Lady

Longshot I like: #6 Cafe Americano

Analysis: Varenka is fresh and consistent late runner, and she can close even when the pace is slow. Javier Castellano has booted her home twice. Cambier Parc produced a nice late kick to take the Del Mar Oaks (G1) on Aug. 17. Chad Brown’s versatile filly is 2-for-2 at this distance. Castle Lady won her first three starts in France and finished fifth when last seen June 21 in the Coronation (G1) at Ascot. She is fresh and dangerous. Cafe Americano is 3-for-4 for Chad Brown, and she is 2-for-2 at this distance. Irad Ortiz Jr. had ridden her three times, and she won all of those races, including the Pucker Up (G3) Aug. 10.

Wagers: #8 to win; exacta 8/3-5-6; exacta 3-5-6/8; trifecta 3-8/3-5-6-8/3-5-6-8

Ryan Dickey

Winner: #8 Varenka

On the board: #6 Cafe Americano, #3 Cambier Parc

Longshot I like: #7 Magnetic Charm

Analysis: It’s the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and we have horses named Lady Prancealot, Princesa Carolina, Castle Lady and Regal Glory. So of course, my top-choice is Varenka, named after a minor character in Leo Tolstoy’s novel “Anna Karenina.” She doesn’t fit the royal name scheme here, but she does have a great turn of foot, and the nine-furlong distance should be no problem for her. I like the Queen’s horse a bit here at a nice price. I’m not totally against Cambier Parc, but her odds make her tough to back.

Reinier Macatangay

Winner: #6 Cafe Americano

On the board: #3 Cambier Parc, #8 Varenka

Longshot I like: #7 Magnetic Charm

Analysis: Cambier Parc is favored, but she does not appear significantly better than these fillies. Given Cafe Americano's 2-for-2 record at nine furlongs, she is the narrow choice. The Queen's filly Magnetic Charm will come late, too, although perhaps too late given her style. 

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