Expert picks: Predictions for Sunday’s Sunland Derby

Before placing your bets, check out the picks:

Winner: #3 New York Central

On the board: #7 Prince Lucky, #11 Runaway Ghost

Longshot I like: #2 Dark Vader

Analysis: New York Central has everything going his way coming into this race. Coming off a victory in an allowance race, the Tapit colt is primed and ready to run a big one in New Mexico. Along with the same trainer and jockey combination that won last year's Sunland Derby, New York Central is coming in off modest workouts and has run against some of the best already. Two starts back, he was a very close second to Risen Star Stakes winner Bravazo. He has never been worse that third in four starts. New York Central has to stay close to what could be a fast pace, his cruising speed can be enough to beat these horses and give Steve Asmussen his second straight win in the Sunland Derby. 

Winner: #4 Hollywood Star

On the board: #1 All Out Blitz, #11 Runaway Ghost

Longshot I like: #5 Peace

Analysis: Hollywood Star should get a much quicker pace scenario to run at than he did in Tampa. All Out Blitz was runner-up in Sham Stakes while finishing in front of susequent Southwest winner. Runaway Ghost likes the surface with a win and second in the two Sunland preps for this race. Peace faces no big names in here like his last start. California invader has tactical speed and a good late kick.

Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)

Winner: #3 New York Central

On the board: #5 Peace, #2 Dark Vader

Longshot I like: #2 Dark Vader

Analysis: This race looks front-loaded with lots of contenders with a need for speed. New York Central gets my pick here, best closing kick and should handle the distance. Peace wouldn't be out there if Mandella didn't think he had some shot at the win spot, especially after just 2 weeks' rest. Dark Vader for a longshot bottom of the Superfecta play.

Winner: #4 Hollywood Star

On the board: #5 Peace, #11 Runaway Ghost

Longshot I like: #2 Dark Vader

Analysis: This race is insanely wide open, but I think Hollywood Star will benefit with the "class drop" and could be dangerous. However, on paper, the fastest horse in the race is local contender Runaway Ghost. Peace is coming in off a quick turn around, which Mandella doesn't often do unless he feels the horse needs it. None of these horses seem to want to distance, on paper at least, and this race is a doozy.

Winner: #10 Dream Baby Dream

On the board: #3 New York Central, #11 Runaway Ghost

Longshot I like: #5 Peace

Analysis: With a hot pace expected, Dream Baby Dream has the turn of foot needed to pick up the pieces late. I think very highly of New York Central, but I will try to beat him in search of more value. Dream Baby Dream closed from 10 lengths out of it to finish a mere 2 1/2 behind New York Central in their last race.

Winner: #4 Hollywood Star

On the board: #3 New York Central, #7 Prince Lucky

Longshot I like: #10 Dream Baby Dream

Analysis: I like All Out Blitz, but the pace scenario here won't do him any favor. This race sets up well for Hollywood Star, who's getting some needed class relief. New York Central can stay if he rates, and you have to like the barn change to Todd Pletcher for Prince Lucky. If they go way too fast up front, Dream Baby Dream can pick up the pieces at a nice price.

Winner: #3 New York Central

On the board: #4 Hollywood Star, #1 All Out Blitz

Longshot I like: #7 Prince Lucky

Analysis: The Sunland Derby is a good spot to test stakes waters with New York Central. He's taking on horses with more experience, such as Hollywood Star and All Out Blitz, but those horses are also looking for a breakthrough win in stakes company. As for Prince Lucky, he's a bit of a wild card after his last race and the trainer switch, but he also stands a chance to improve here away from the big Derby point contenders.

Winner: #3 New York Central

On the board: #8 Seven Trumpets, #10 Dream Baby Dream

Longshot I like: #2 Dark Vader

Analysis: Winner pick (#3) is smart money (owner) and lucky suit (trainer). Top finishers (#8) are logical. Going with the jockey, Stewart Elliott, on the longshot.