Expert picks: Predictions for Saturday's Louisiana Derby
Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby marks the first of seven major 2018 Kentucky Derby preps offering qualifying points to the Top 4 on a 100-40-20-10 scale.
The field at New Orleans' Fair Grounds includes all the board hitters from the last local Derby trail race, the Risen Star (G2), as well as recent Southwest Stakes (G3) winner My Boy Jack, who brings the Desormeaux brothers back to their home state.
Post time is set for 6:21 p.m. ET.
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Before placing your bets, check out picks from the Horse Racing Nation crew:
Tony Bada Bing, Bada Bing Inc. (@tonycbadabing)
Winner: #7 Snapper Sinclair
On the board: #1 Bravazo, #9 My Boy Jack
Longshot I like: #4 Givemaminit
Analysis: Snapper Sinclair gets lucky and holds on for his third try in Big Easy. Even though his breeding screams shorter distances and, even likely, more racing on the green, he gets a breather on the front end to hold off... Bravazo, who is the most likely winner. But I'll take better odds on my top choice.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #7 Snapper Sinclair
On the board: #9 My Boy Jack, #1 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #10 Dark Templar
Analysis: Snapper Sinclair has defied the odds in his last two starts. With a third- and second-place finish in the Lecomte and Risen Star, respectively, he has shown he can handle the dirt as much as he liked the turf. Coming into this race off a sharp workout, Snapper Sinclair will be piloted by jockey Jose Ortiz for the first time, a huge upgrade for this colt. He should also sit close to the lead and in the clear from post No. 7.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #2 Noble Indy
On the board: #9 My Boy Jack, #1 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #6 Hyndford
Analysis: Noble Indy was a bit green in his first graded start last race but received a good education. Now he adds blinkers to help focus on the task. My Boy Jack has the right running style in a race loaded with front-end speed. Can he replicate his last over a fast track? Bravazo is in razor-sharp form, but does not need an all-out effort, just a good final tune-up. Last out, Hyndford finished second to his stablemate, Magnum Moon, who went on to win Rebel Stakes.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #9 My Boy Jack
On the board: #1 Bravazo, #10 Dark Templar
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: Looks like a swift pace that will set up nicely for the late runners to make bids down the long Fair Grounds stretch. My Boy Jack is the best closer and should get the win. Bravazo’s the only pressers I like to hit the board. Dark Templar gets a piece for the locals. Lone Sailor, the only other good closer, gets the nod for longshot play.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #1 Bravazo
On the board: #9 My Boy Jack, #6 Hyndford
Longshot I like: #10 Dark Templar
Analysis: Bravazo is improving at the right time, and his works at Oaklawn have been stellar. As for My Boy Jack, I believe has a lot of potential, and I think he is a top contender to defeat Bravazo. Dark Templar is one who I think could upset this field. He needs to improve on his speed figures, but has never been worse than third in four career starts. This is his acid test.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #8 Lone Sailor
On the board: #2 Noble Indy, #1 Bravazo
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: The blinkers experiment did not go over well with Lone Sailor in the Lecomte, but he seemed back to his old self when closing into a paceless race next out to finish second in an allowance at this same track. With the Louisiana Derby looking to be speed-heavy, and the Kentucky Jockey Club being the most positive key race of the 2018 Derby trail, I have to take a shot with Lone Sailor at big odds. Fifth place in the KJC, Lone Sailor will look to follow the trend of also-rans exiting and lighting up the board in major preps (Bravazo 21-1, Quip 19-1, Promises Fulfilled 18-1).
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #2 Noble Indy
On the board: #1 Bravazo, #7 Snapper Sinclair
Longshot I like: #8 Lone Sailor
Analysis: Noble Indy is the top choice because the the top two horses from the Risen Star (Bravazo, Snapper Sinclair) ran 1-2 most of the way, which signifies a possible bias. Noble Indy did well enough to keep up in third. But also keep an eye on Lone Sailor, who only turned in one clunker in his career in the Lecomte. Without blinkers, he is an improved horse.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #2 Noble Indy
On the board: #1 Bravazo, #7 Snapper Sinclair
Longshot I like: #5 Retirement Fund
Analysis: If Noble Indy can come back from his first defeat and break sharp with the added blinkers, he should be able to take advantage of a clean trip near the front and power home this time. Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair have both put in two good starts this year, finishing only a nose apart in the Risen Star. As for Retirement Fund, he seems deserving of a second chance following the Southwest, and he's returning to the track where he sparked attention winning his first two races.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #9 My Boy Jack
On the board: #1 Bravazo, #7 Snapper Sinclair
Longshot I like: #2 Noble Indy
Analysis: Over a potentially wet track Bravazo will benefit from inside post along with the blinkered Noble Indy. D. Wayne Lukas, the silvered maestro, wants back in the Kentucky Derby, and this colt should be his ride. Mickey Rooney's namesake (1936 movie "Down the Stretch") Snapper Sinclair with Jose Ortiz matches speed with Bravazo and the brothers Desormeaux entry, My Boy Jack. If Kent and 'Jack' behave, they could punch their ticket to Churchill Downs.