Expert picks: Preakness Stakes 2019 predictions, longshots
In the absence of the first four across the wire in the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown, attracted only a single previous Grade 1 winner. That makes for a wide-open race led by the former Derby favorite Improbable, troubled last out runner War of Will and a number of so-called new shooters jumping into the fray at Pimlico Race Course. Ahead of post time at 6:48 p.m. ET Saturday, get a look at free Preakness Stakes past performances, and consider these picks from Horse Racing Nation contributors:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #7 Alwaysmining
On the board: #4 Improbable, #1 War of Will
Longshot I like: #13 Win Win Win
Analysis: Alwaysmining comes in off six straight wins, with his last three by a combined 22 lengths. He has won on the lead or just off the pace in each. The gelding shows fast workouts coming in and drew a great post position for his running style. This horse has big potential. Improbable ran a good race in the Derby and comes in with top connections with trainer Bob Baffert giving the mount here to Mike Smith. He is the only Grade 1 winner in the field. That class should be respected. War of Will clipped heels turning for home in the Derby but comes back here looking fresh. He has among the highest Beyer numbers of any horse in the field, and an ability to lead or stalk makes him versatile from the inside post. Win Win Win will get speed to chase, and a wide post doesn't worry me, as he's a deep closer. Never out of the trifecta aside from in the sloppy Derby, he shows consistency, and this could set up for him. I will play a 7-4-1-13 superfecta box.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #1 War of Will
On the board: #4 Improbable, #8 Signalman
Longshot I like: #7 Alwaysmining
Analysis: I prefer the horses going from the Derby to the Preakness. Alwayswining is a nice runner, but he has not proven himself yet against that caliber of horse. War of Will is a physical beast and should be able to show better than two weeks ago if he manages a cleaner trip.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #7 Alwaysmining
On the board: #2 Bourbon War, #1 War of Will
Longshot I like: #11 Laughing Fox
Analysis: This Preakness took a hit in talent when the top three Derby finishers and the 17th-place Maximum Security passed, giving a wider opening to outsiders. The standout new shooter is Alwaysmining, who loves to win and shows fast Brisnet Speed Ratings along with competitive TimeformUS Speed Figures. The Maryland-bred can sit a few lengths off the fast pace and get first run on the collapsing speed.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride
Winner: #4 Improbable
On the board: #12 Anothertwistafate, #7 Alwaysmining
Longshot I like: #8 Signalman
Analysis: Improbable seems to have bounced out of the Derby in good shape and is the only horse of Baffert's trio to be sent on to the Preakness. Anothertwistafate could've been the winner in the Lexington Stakes (G3) had he not been covered up. He showed plenty in a recent sharp, tightening six-furlong work, and I think he's sitting on a big effort. Alwaysmining's running style should set him up well for the race, though he does need to prove he can step up in class. As a longshot, I like
Signalman. Trainer Kenny McPeek has been nothing but confident in his horse, and he's coming into the race fresh yet third off the layoff.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch
Winner: #4 Improbable
On the board: #1 War of Will, #7 Alwaysmining
Longshot I like: #11 Laughing Fox
Analysis: I think we will see a good pace in the Preakness with War of Will either setting it or laying just off it. If he takes back again, he gets a similar trip the the Derby, likely minus getting checked and turned sideways. However, he will have to deal with traffic. Improbable, however, won't have such issues, and that's why I'll have him atop my tickets.
Improbable ran a sneaky-good race in the Derby. He was just about to make a run a path wider than eventual runner-up Code of Honor before getting cut off and forced to alter course a few paths wider. Once he found clear running, he actually made up some ground in the final 1/16th.
Alwaysmining should be forwardly placed and get a clear trip from his post. I think he's the best choice for the third spot. My longshot, Laughing Fox, shows the best late pace figures and should have a good pace in which to close. I don't see him winning, but he could come late for a piece.