Expert picks: Oaklawn Mile 2020 predictions, longshots
Those aren't the only three contenders receiving endorsement from Horse Racing Nation contributors who handicapped the race. Ahead of post time at 5:43 p.m. ET Saturday, check out picks and a few suggested plays below.
In coming to your own conclusions, free past performances are available, too. Also check out TVG's $200 Risk Free Bet available to new members. Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #3 Tom's d'Etat
On the board: #2 Mr. Money, #6 M G Warrior
Longshot I like: #13 Fight On
Analysis: Tom's d'Etat is in prime form right now and appears to get stronger with age. While his only trip at this distance was a win, that race was two years ago. Still, he gets an inside post in a large field and should be up on the pace. Tom's d'Etat comes in off a sharp half-mile drill last week. He has run six straight triple digit Beyers and looks live off the layoff. Mr. Money won four in a row before tailing off toward the end of last year. He's back after a well-deserved break and shows three straight bullet drills. From the two post, he will be sent hard for the front. He's got high cruising speed and, if left alone, he can go all the way. M G Warrior comes in off a sharp allowance victory. The jockey/trainer combo of Joe Talamo and Brad Cox are red-hot right now. It took this horse four starts under Cox to get back to the winner's circle, but he has a chance with a good pace in front of him. Fight On started four times in Dubai already this season and was respectable in each effort. This U.S. return also comes over the track where he owns a stakes win. He's in with an upset chance. I will play a 3-2-6-13 superfecta.
Nick Costa
Winner: #8 Bankit
On the board: #3 Tom's d'Etat, #14 Improbable
Longshot I like: #8 Bankit
Analysis: On recent and back speed figures, half the field could win this mile event. The race features plenty of early horses wanting the lead and several pressers that can compromise the early runners. On paper it looks like a potential pressure scenario. Based purely on position, I’m backing the closer Bankit in this spot. He was a close second in the Razorback (G3) but didn't show up last time in the slop. Multiple graded stakes winner Tom’s d’Etat retains rider Joel Rosario, who is perfect on the horse in four rides. Improbable drew an awful post here but gets reunited with Drayden Van Dyke, who has gotten maximum performances from this colt every time he has ridden him.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #6 M G Warrior
On the board: #3 Tom's d'Etat, #7 Snapper Sinclair
Longshot I like: #6 M G Warrior
Analysis: With the potent trainer/jockey pair of Cox and Joe Talamo, I am not sure whether M G Warrior will stay close to his 15-1 morning line. But if he's anywhere close, he is worth a play. The pace looks to be pressured, with Mr Money, Slick Silver and Pioneer Spirit all with early speed and Snapper Sinclair pressing right behind. It should set up for a late-running, mid-pack horse. While Tom's d'Etat is favored, he is ending layoff and could be vulnerable. M G Warrior has been improving with each start, and Snapper Sinclair seems to hang around in the superfecta on class alone, so I wouldn't toss him.
My wagers: $5 across on 6; trifecta 3,6/3,6,7/7,14
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #3 Tom's d'Etat
On the board: #4 Pioneer Spirit, #7 Snapper Sinclair
Longshot I like: #1 Slick Silver
Analysis: In a deep field, I'm picking the horse that I think is the most talented, regardless of odds. He's coming off a layoff of 134 days, but Tom's d'Etat is the choice for me. Every time Rosario has been aboard, Tom's d'Etat has won. Pioneer Spirit rides out of the Robertino Diodoro barn, which is hitting at a 27% clip over the last 166 races. The anti-Diodoro right now is trainer Steve Asmussen, who was on a 40-plus race streak without a win until scoring the late double Thursday. Still, Snapper Sinclair can hit the board for Asmussen here. The longshot I'm using is a speedy sort who drew the rail. Slick Silver, out of a small barn is out-classed, but may be fast enough to be a pest and stick around at a price. He's not a win contender but one to use underneath.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #14 Improbable
On the board: #3 Tom's d'Etat, #2 Mr. Money
Longshot I like: #8 Bankit
Analysis: Improbable is going to have to work out a trip from a difficult post. He always runs his race with Van Dyke in the saddle, and he has multiple bullet works in his holster. He landed the place in both local attempts last year, including a close second in the Rebel (G2) off a layoff. Tom’s d’Etat found a couple of soft graded spots to end his 2019 campaign in the Fayette (G2) and Clark (G1). Rosario rides him well, and the tactical type drew an advantageous post. Mr. Money is a stalker with competitive numbers, and this is his first start in more than five months. Bankit figures to sit back and make a late run at long odds. He might be able to get a piece of this.
My wagers: #14 to win; exacta 14/2-3-8; exacta 2-3-8/14; trifecta 3-14/2-3-8-14/2-3-8-14; trifecta 2-3-14/ALL/8
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #3 Tom's d'Etat
On the board: #2 Mr. Money, #14 Improbable
Longshot I like: #8 Bankit
Analysis: Tom's d'Etat holds a class edge in this race after winning the Fayette and Clark to close out his 2019 campaign. As evidence of the quality behind him, Mr Freeze ran second and third in those two races, and he went on to finish runner-up in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and capture the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2). For a longshot option, Bankit did not handle the slop last time and might improve on a dry surface, although keep in mind that the Asmussen barn has struggled to win as of late at Oaklawn.
Olivia Newman
Winner: #14 Improbable
On the board: #7 Snapper Sinclair, #3 Tom's d'Etat
Longshot I like: #2 Mr. Money
Analysis: Bob Baffert says Improbable is working better than ever. I'll take his word for it. If he behaves at the gate, I think this colt is the best of the bunch. Snapper Sinclair is coming off a game second-place finish over the track. The cutback in distance will work to his advantage. Toms d’Etat is exiting a lengthy layoff but has the class to overcome it. Mr. Money also faces the challenge of coming off the bench. Stamina-building works show his readiness.
Victor Ryan
Winner: #2 Mr. Money
On the board: #7 Snapper Sinclair, #12 Kershaw
Longshot I like: #11 Lord Guinness
Analysis: I'll be skeptical of millionaire and morning line favorite Tom's d'Etat, now 7 and coming off a four-month layoff. Second choice Improbable is parked wide going two turns. My win bet will be on returning 4-year-old colt Mr. Money. I'll go price shopping underneath in the exacta/trifecta with Snapper Sinclair and longshots Kershaw and Lord Guinness. Tom's d'Etat will also be thrown in the trifecta just to try and save not being burned by the top-class runner.
My wagers: 2 to win; exacta 2/7,11,12; exacta 7,11,12/2; trifecta 2/3,7,11,12/3,7,11,12; triefcta 3,7,11,12/2/3,7,11,12; trifecta 3,7,11,12/3,7,11,12/2