Expert picks: Louisiana Derby 2020 predictions, longshots
An overflow field signed on for the 1 3/16-mile feature led by Enforceable, a prior winner of January's Lecomte Stakes (G3) over the course. Connections feel he'll also like the distance here.
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Certainly, there's a case to make for others in this wide-open event, with thoughts from Horse Racing Nation contributors below. When coming to your own conclusions, be sure to check out free past performances.
Nick Costa
Winner: #10 Enforceable
On the board: #1 Major Fed, #13 Silver State
Longshot I like: #3 Wells Bayou
Analysis: Enforceable rallied for the place spot in the Risen Star (G2) over what may have been a speed-favoring track that day. He classes up nicely against this group and has already won from this No. 10 post at Fair Grounds. Major Fed should get a better trip drawn inside as opposed to his wide journey in the Risen Star. His speed figures have steadily increased, indicating he is on the improve. Further development here could land him in the winner’s circle. Silver State has never been worse than third in four career starts. Has to overcome a tough post to prove best, but he could be right in the mix again at the end.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #8 Royal Act
On the board: #3 Wells Bayou, #10 Enforceable
Longshot I like: #8 Royal Act
Analysis: Royal Act ran a sneaky-good race in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his third career start at Santa Anita Park and dirt debut. He should be able to work out a trip from the No. 8 post position and will be in the second flight of pressers. This is a a price worth taking a shot with across the board.
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #3 Wells Bayou
On the board: #10 Enforceable, #9 Portos
Longshot I like: #12 Lynn's Map
Analysis: I'm expecting Wells Bayou to wire the field in the Louisiana Derby. He may be joined early in a pace duel, but his front-running style with even energy distribution will be tough to top. Enforceable received a bad draw but is good enough to contend. I think Portos will move forward enough to be a play in exotics. Lynn's Map is an excellent longshot to use underneath, as he looks to get a clean trip for the first time in a while. Still, it's Wells Bayou down on the bayou for me.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #9 Portos
On the board: #3 Wells Bayou, #10 Enforceable
Longshot I like: #4 Chestertown
Analysis: Portos has plenty of stamina, and I like his running style versatility. His best effort was his romping maiden win at a mile and an eighth, and the Withers (G3) show finisher has the same seven weeks between starts this time. Wells Bayou is probably going to attempt a theft. He set the pace and was clearly second best in his stakes debut in the Southwest (G3) back onFeb. 17. Enforceable lacks speed and can run all day. He is probably going to rally for a share. Chestertown did not get pace help in either of his local routes, and had a troubled trip in an optional claimer at a mile and an eighth Feb. 15. Silver State checked in right behind Enforceable in the Lecomte and Risen Star.
Wagers: #9 to win; exacta box 3-9; trifecta 3-9/3-4-9-10-13/3-4-9-10-13
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #4 Chestertown
On the board: #3 Wells Bayou, #9 Portos
Longshot I like: #6 Shake Some Action
Analysis: Chestertown has improved in stages with every stretch out. Most recently, his last start at nine furlongs resulted in a troubled runner-up finish to Shake Some Action in a local optional claimer. Through slow fractions, Chestertown experienced traffic problems early around the first turn with the field packed together, and again in the stretch when blocked. As for Wells Bayou, he comes off a strong second-place finish to Silver Prospector in the Southwest Stakes after setting the pace and could employ the same tactics.
Mark Midland
Winner: #9 Portos
On the board: #8 Royal Act, #1 Major Fed
Longshot I like: #6 Shake Some Action
Analysis: This is a wide-open field going 1 3/16 miles but without a ton of speed. In his last, Portos overcame both a wide trip and a slow pace to finish third in the Withers for trainer Todd Pletcher. I'm looking for an even better effort here, and with enough pace, he could get the win at 8-1.
Wagers: I'll bet exactas with Portos in first and second. $5 exacta: 8 with 1,2,3,9,10; $5 exacta 1,2,3,9,10 with 8.
If you want to play for a bomb trifecta, key Shake Some Action in third and fourth at 15-1. $1 trifecta: 1,2,8,9,10 with 1,2,3,8,9,10 with 6
$.50 superfecta: 1,2,8,9,10 with 1,2,3,8,9,10 with 1,2,3,8,9,10,11,12,13 with 6
Mary Dixon Reynolds
Winner: #10 Enforceable
On the board: #8 Royal Act, #9 Portos
Longshot I like: #1 Major Fed
Analysis: Even with the stronger Risen Star division winner Mr. Monomoy out due to an injury, a full, strong field has gathered back together at Fair Grounds. With with his regal bloodlines, Enforceable looks well suited for the extended distance. Royal Act is another colt with eye-catching Equibase Speed Figures and an imposing pedigree. While lightly raced, he could pull it together in this race, only his second on dirt.