Expert picks: Lecomte Stakes 2020 predictions, longshots
In the bigger picture, Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes serves as the proving ground for a number of aspiring 3-year-old colts on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail. But the race also sets up as an open handicapping challenge with a full field signed on to go 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds.
Ahead of post time, at 6:55 p.m. ET, Horse Racing Nation contributors weighed in with their picks. And in coming to your own conclusions, consult free past performances. Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #7 Halo Again
On the board: #9 Silver State, #2 Mr. Monomoy
Longshot I like: #10 Enforecable
Analysis: Halo Again comes in off a sharp win north of the border in Woodbine's Coronation Futurity. He rode the rail and got a perfectly timed ride to win on Tapeta. He's unbeaten in two starts, with the other win on dirt in a runaway maiden victory. He posted a sharp five-furlong workout coming in. From the No. 7 post, he should get a good trip close to the pace and will be running late. Silver Slate was second behind the highly touted Necker Island at Churchill Downs last out. Had stumbled at the gate and just missed at the wire. With a good break, he should sit mid-pack as the leaders go at it up front. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. knows this horse best. Mr. Monomoy was second behind Lynn's Map last time out at the Fair Grounds, He looked as if he didn't like the track, and weather could again come into play for Saturday. But if he runs back to his maiden win, he will have a huge chance. Enforceable has won going longer before, and is Grade 1-placed. Ran into a sloppy track in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last out and couldn't get going. His works have been impressive over the Fair Grounds track, and he's one of the most experienced horses in the race.
Nick Costa
Winner: #4 Scabbard
On the board: #9 Silver State, #10 Enforecable
Longshot I like: #1 Finnick the Fierce
Analysis: This race features about a half-dozen horses that want the lead and several more that like to race close to the front. With that much pressure, the overriding factor is running style. So I’ll focus on the horses who are in the middle to the back of the pack early, then make a closing move to the finish.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #2 Mr. Monomoy
On the board: #9 Silver State, #4 Scabbard
Longshot I like: #10 Enforecable
Analysis: Brad Cox and Florent Geroux are a potent combination, and Mr. Monomoy is a colt with a lot of potential. Great draw for him, and he should get the distance with no problem. Trainer Steve Asmussen is always dangerous in these races ,and Silver State retains his go-to rider, Santana Jr., over his stablemates. Scabbard did not handle the surface at Santa Anita in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Given the time off and change of scenery, I expect a better showing this time. The swift projected pace should set up for Scabbard and Mark Casse-trained Enforceable, who is a full brother to Mohaymen and half to Maximum Security's sire, New Year's Day. That's a definite Derby pedigree play.
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #7 Halo Again
On the board: #4 Scabbard, #10 Enforecable
Longshot I like: #1 Finnick the Fierce
Analysis: If Halo Again can rate in this race, he's a winner at juicy odds. If he presses this early pace, however, I think he runs up the track. I'm taking a shot on him. Scabbard is logical. Enforceable may be an overlay. Finnick the Fierce, meanwhile, will be closing late for a piece. If the track comes up sloppy, I'll use No. 11 Bango, who would pay handsomely. He was set to move forward last out, but the track was a quagmire.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #9 Silver State
On the board: #4 Scabbard, #7 Halo Again
Longshot I like: #10 Enforecable
Analysis: Silver State ran well in both one-turn starts at Churchill last year, earning an improved number in a nose defeat second time out. Scabbard ran well in his first three starts, including a good second in his first route try in the Iroquois (G3). Halo Again won both starts for Asmussen last year, including the Coronation Futurity at a mile and an eighth in Canada. Enforceable will probably like this oval and might do more damage in longer races like the Risen Star or Louisiana Derby later in the meet. He has plenty of stamina. Shashashakemeup tries two turns in his third start for +ROI sprint/route trainer Keith Desormeaux.
Wagers: #9 to win; exacta 9/4-7-10; exacta 4-7-9/10; trifecta 4-9/ALL/10; superfecta 4-9/4-9-10/ALL/4-7-9-10-12.
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #9 Silver State
On the board: #4 Scabbard, #10 Enforecable
Longshot I like: #1 Finnick the Fierce
Analysis: Silver State is progressing in the right way after dead-heating for a maiden win at Churchill Downs and finishing second to a nice colt in Necker Island in an optional claimer. Santana Jr. chose to stay on board, even though Asmussen also starts Halo Again and Excession in the same race. With that kind of confidence behind him, Silver State gets the nod over the proven class horse Scabbard.
Olivia Newman
Winner: #4 Scabbard
On the board: #14 Lynn's Map, #10 Enforecable
Longshot I like: #1 Finnick the Fierce
Analysis: Scabbard is exiting a layoff, but he's been tested at a higher level than any horse in the field and appears to be training well. Lynn’s Map likes the track at Fair Grounds, beating a couple of his rivals here on Dec. 21. This is a step up in class and the post position may lead to a scratch in favor of another race. Enforceable is also coming off a layoff, but he seems to be improving. If he can stay out of traffic in this 14-horse field, I could see him picking up the pieces at the end. As a longshot, I am choosing Finnick the Fierce. The inside post is a definite disadvantage for a horse missing his right eye, but he'll be looking to save ground anyway.
Laura Pugh
Winner: #2 Mr. Monomoy
On the board: #4 Scabbard, #7 Halo Again
Longshot I like: #6 New Eagle
Analysis: Speed typically does well at this track, but the long stretch can help closers, which is why Scabbard will probably come flying for a piece of things late. I expect him to make the exacta but not quite catch Mr. Monomoy, who will get first run and now has the type of bottom in his conditioning to hold on. New Eagle yielded late in his last race but will cut back this time. He showed steady improvement in his speed figures all last year and should continue rising.
Mary Dixon Reynolds
Winner: #2 Mr. Monomoy
On the board: #4 Scabbard, #10 Enforecable
Longshot I like: #1 Finnick the Fierce
Analysis: Geroux is on board Mr. Monomoy, and he knows how to ride members of this family, putting them in a good early position to succeed even in a large field such as this one. The son of Palace Malice only lost his last race by a head over a sloppy track. Scabbard has plenty of high-class experience. Along with him I'm taking a chance with Enforceable to hit the board.
Victor Ryan
Winner: #9 Silver State
On the board: #7 Halo Again, #4 Scabbard
Longshot I like: #7 Halo Again
Analysis: It's an Asmussen exacta for this handicapper. Silver State did little wrong in two starts at Churchill Downs in the fall. He first wowed on debut when leaving all but his dead-heating companion at least 9 3/4 lengths behind. Then he just missed in the slop when stretched out to a mile for start No. 2. Silver State boasts a pair of sharp five-furlong works over the Fair Grounds strip to signal his readiness and first-call rider Santana retains the mount. Halo Again rallied into a slow pace on the Woodbine Tapeta when winning the 1 1/8-mile Coronation Futurity following a debut win at Churchill Downs. Morning line favorite Scabbard also looms a serious win-threat coming out of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Wagers: win 7,9; exacta 9 w/ 4,7; 4,7 w/ 9; superfecta keying 9 in first and second 9/2,4,7/2,4,7,10,12/2,4,7,10,12;
2,4,7/9/2,4,7,10,12/2,4,7,10,12.