Expert picks: Kentucky Derby 2019 predictions, longshots
The field's set, minus a few scratches, and betting has opened for the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Now, who to include on those tickets?
Ahead of post time at 6:50 p.m. Saturday, here's who Horse Racing Nation contributors are backing at Churchill Downs, with free Kentucky Derby past performances also available.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post
Winner: #5 Improbable
On the board: #16 Game Winner, #3 By My Standards
Longshot I like: #6 Vekoma
Analysis: Between the cancellation of the San Felipe, the overcrowded Rebel Stakes and Omaha Beach's late scratch, this has been an odd buildup to the 145th Kentucky Derby. Lots of parity with this field, but I see it ending with Bob Baffert creating history once again because the best trainer has the best horses in this year's field. My pick from his three entries is Improbable, especially if they're racing on a muddy track at Churchill Downs. The only other underneath play for my trifecta that I don't have listed above is Tacitus, a horse that impressed me with back-to-back wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #8 Tacitus
On the board: #5 Improbable, #13 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #6 Vekoma
Analysis: Tacitus is rounding into form at the right time as a winner of two straight graded stakes, including a rocky Wood Memorial. He will have speed inside of him and will need a good break. If he can get into the right position, he can get a good jump on others with his running style. Pedigree suggests distance should be no problem, and at a worthy price. Improbable has looked good in the morning at Churchill and has a win over the track as a 2-year-old. Post 5 has won the Derby twice in the last five years. He will have to rush up quickly for good position. Code Of Honor has the looks and pedigree to handle the 10 furlongs. He will have speed to chase, and it's only a matter if he can steer clear of traffic while making his move. Vekoma makes his third start off the layoff and has continued to improve. He won the Blue Grass Stakes in dominant fashion and has worked well since the race. He will have to sit a pocket trip and work through traffic. I will play an 8-5-13-6 superfecta box.Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #8 Tacitus
On the board: #16 Game Winner, #14 Win Win Win
Longshot I like: #19 Spinoff
Analysis: Analysis: I'm going with several exactas using Tacitus and Game Winner on top, with Win Win Win and Spinoff underneath. In my 50-cent trifectas, I'll have 8,12 with 14,19 with 10,13,16. Because I think he had a legit excuse in the Louisiana Derby and has been training like a beast, I'm putting $20 on War of Will from the inside in hopes that he bucks history. But due to the unfavorable post, he's not appearing in any exotics.
Justin Dew, Lone Speed
Winner: #19 Spinoff
On the board: #16 Game Winner, #8 Tacitus
Longshot I like: #20 Country House
Analysis: I’m going to try to hit the superfecta by using Game Winner, Spinoff, Tacitus and Country House prominently.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #8 Tacitus
On the board: #5 Improbable, #7 Maximum Security
Longshot I like: #13 Code of Honor
Analysis: With the defection of Omaha Beach, I am looking to Bill Mott to break the "no Wood Memorial winner has won the Derby in forever" streak. I think Tacitus looks good over the track and should improve off his Tampa Bay and Wood wins. I like Improbable the most of the Baffert trio, but Baffert said as recently as Friday morning that people need to be paying attention to Maximum Security. I'll take the Hall of Famer's word for it.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #5 Improbable
On the board: #16 Game Winner, #6 Vekoma
Longshot I like: #8 Tacitus
Analysis: Improbable and Game Winner are obvious choices, while Vekoma's early situation is helped by the defection of Omaha Beach. There is less chance of an early pace collapse, or if Vekoma comes from midpack he would not need to follow Omaha Beach, either. All three contenders work as As on horizontal tickets.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner
Winner: #8 Tacitus
On the board: #17 Roadster, #16 Game Winner
Longshot I like: #2 Tax
Analysis: When formulating my bets for the Kentucky Derby, I focus on the horse that I think has the best shot to hit the board, wheel them in all three spots and select other two or three runners of which one of them has to hit the board as well. Then I root for some chaos in the final spot of the trifecta. This year Tacitus appears to have the best chance to hit the Derby. He's beautifully drawn with a lot of early speed types to his inside. His speed figures hold up against all runners, plus he's best suited for 10 furlongs and has a fighter's mentality as evidenced when he was unfazed while encountering a mountain of traffic during his Wood Memorial victory. Of the rest, I think Tax, Game Winner or Roadster should hit the board. Tax has an unfavorable post but is consistently one of the fastest in field on figures. Game Winner has encountered tough trips in both 2019 efforts but looks like he'll move forward by how he's training this week. Roadster is also on the improve, though Mike Smith opted for Omaha Beach.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch
Winner: #5 Improbable
On the board: #1 War of Will, #17 Roadster
Longshot I like: #3 By My Standards
Analysis: With Haikal out, some pressure is off those to his inside, mainly War of Will, who drew the rail. I also believe this will allow him and Improbable to find their preferred spots under less pressure. Roadster no longer is in the win-less 17 post and, without Omaha Beach, he is my third choice. By My Standards has looked great all week, and if there is a horse that can come on for a piece, I think it's him.