Expert picks: Jim Dandy 2019 predictions, longshots
Saratoga's local prep for the Aug. 24 Travers Stakes (G1) also includes familiar Triple Crown series runners War of Will and Tax, along with Global Campaign, Laughing Fox and Mihos, each stakes winners as 3-year-olds.
Ahead of post time for the 11th of 12 races on the card, 6:51 p.m. ET, here's a look at how Horse Racing Nation contributors handicapped the Jim Dandy. Also check out free past performances.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #4 Global Campaign
On the board: #5 Tacitus, #6 War of Will
Longshot I like: #3 Mihos
Analysis: Global Campaign has been off since May, meaning he comes in a fresh horse and appears to have a pace advantage. There's very little speed in here and, as a normal stalker, don't be surprised if this one is in front early. The Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner has an ideal post, too, that could help him go all the way. Tacitus has the class and talent to handle this distance, plus he's already beaten a couple of these rivals. Second in the Belmont Stakes last out with a wide trip, he comes in with fast works. Tacitus will be running late no matter how fast or slow they go early. War of Will was a disappointing ninth in the Belmont but now returns to a distance he favors. A much-needed rest has done good for this horse. From the outside he will have to work a ground-saving trip and get first run on competitors. Mihos will be a longshot but has trained forwardly since his last start in the Dwyer (G3). He has every reason to improve second off the layoff, and trainer Jimmy Jerkens shows solid numbers in that scenario. I will play a 4-5-6-3 superfecta box.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #5 Tacitus
On the board: #6 War of Will, #4 Global Campaign
Longshot I like: #2 Tax
Analysis: Tacitus had a wide trip throughout in the Belmont, and that likely cost him the prize. That concern should be non-existent here. He’s consistent and a two-time Grade 2-winning colt. Should he fire his best, look for him to take top honors. War of Will faces less than a double-digit field for the first time in his career. He struggled home ninth in the Belmont but proved he can compete against top 3-year-olds by virtue of his Preakness victory. Global Campaign is improving at the right time. He possesses plenty of early foot to allow him to dictate the terms if he so desires, and that makes him a dangerous player.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #4 Global Campaign
On the board: #6 War of Will, #2 Tax
Longshot I like: #4 Global Campaign
Analysis: Global Campaign will be controlling speed, and I don't see anyone passing him. Tacitus and War of Will have a bigger target, the Travers, so a win here is nice but not required. I expect Mihos to run better than in his last, the Dwyer, but nine furlongs may just be too long for him. Laughing Fox won't get the pace he needs to run his best. Tax is the head scratcher for me. I think he'll stay close to the pace and possibly hit the board if it's as measured up front as expected. I'm simply betting Global Campaign across the board in this short field.
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby
Winner: #6 War of Will
On the board: #2 Tax, #5 Tacitus
Longshot I like: #2 Tax
Analysis: War of Will has legitimate excuses for his only losses on the dirt. I expect him to get first run and hold off all comers. Tacitus ran his best race at this distance in the Wood Memorial. His plodding style may leave him too much to do in the stretch under this pace scenario. Tax had a solid work the other day, and his early speed should serve him well here. Should be right in the mix for this in the stretch, and he could surprise everyone with a win here.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #5 Tacitus
On the board: #4 Global Campaign, #2 Tax
Longshot I like: #3 Mihos
Analysis: While second in the Belmont, Tacitus was best that day. He raced wide throughout from the outside post and missed by a length, whereas winner Sir Winston rode the good inside portion of the track. His best career effort was his lone start at this distance in the Wood Memorial, and he can wear these down under Jose Ortiz. Global Campaign is 3-for-4 and looked good winning the Peter Pan at this distance back on May 11. Tax might attempt a wire job. The former claimer won the Withers (G3) earlier this year and was a good second behind Tacitus in the Wood. Mihos needed his Dwyer return July 6. He should be fitter today, but I am not sure how far he wants to go.
Wagers: #5 to win; exacta 5-4; trifecta key 5/2-3-4.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #6 War of Will
On the board: #4 Global Campaign, #2 Tax
Longshot I like: #1 Laughing Fox
Analysis: War of Will drew a good post outside of Global Campaign. If he wants to, that colt can press Global Campaign and hope the latter one fails to handle two turns. For value underneath, Tax and the improving (but still overmatched) Laughing Fox are useful.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride
Winner: #2 Tax
On the board: #4 Global Campaign, #6 War of Will
Longshot I like: #1 Laughing Fox
Analysis: I think Tax is sitting on a big race. He has not run in 49 days, but the best race of his career came off a layoff, from the Remsen (G2) to the Withers. He fired a bullet workout last weekend and looks ready to go. I think if he sits comfortably close to the pace, he'll keep going on in the end. Distance is no issue for him. Global Campaign could be dangerous if he gets loose on the lead. The only doubt I have about him is his foot issues. War of Will has had some time to rest after running in all three Triple Crown races. If the "WOW" who won the Preakness shows up, he will be tough.