Expert picks: Indiana Derby predictions, longshots

A field of nine has assembled for Saturday's Grade 3, $500,000 Indiana Derby, with Dale Romans-trained King Zachary the morning line favorite at Indiana Grand.

With a last-out stakes win, the colt could propel himself into major late summer tests for 3-year-olds. But he'll go up against some other potential late bloomers when the field heads postward at 9:48 p.m. ET.

Here's who Horse Racing Nation's staffers are picking in the Indiana Derby:

Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost.com)

Winner: #2 Blame the Rider

On the board: #8 King Zachary, #6 Axelrod

Longshot I like: #3 Givemeaminit

Analysis: Blame the Rider barely even it made to the Kentucky Derby trail, and his chances were quickly dashed after an eighth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis. Since then, the Doug O’Neill trainee has regrouped nicely and now appears to be ready for his first graded stakes win. As good as King Zachary looked last time out, Blame the Rider is my pick and play to beat the favorite. 

Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)

Winner: #8 King Zachary

On the board: #4 Dark Vader, #7 Title Ready

Longshot I like: #3 Givemeaminit

Analysis: King Zachary is getting good at the right time. After a win in an allowance race on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he came back and upset Ax Man in an impressive run in the Matt Winn. King Zachary stalked the pace and pounced turning for home. This time, he will likely get the same trip, and with an outside post he can stalk. King Zachary comes in off a sharp five-furlong work, and a win will set him up as a horse to watch the second half of 2018. Dark Vader was third, beaten a neck, in the Easy Goer on Belmont Stakes day. He should be up on the pace and has the talent to be around at the end, plus reunites with Corey Nakatani, who rode him to a victory a couple starts back. Title Ready was a fast-closing fourth in the Ohio Derby. He ran the best Beyer of his career last out, and with a softer field, can be around at the end once again. He can be on the lead or stalk, but has faced better before. Givemeaminit may still want two turns and gets the chance here. He will need pace to run at and likely not a winner, but has the class to get into Superfecta. I will play a 8-4-7-3 superfecta box.

Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman

Winner: #1 Trigger Warning

On the board: #8 King Zachary, #4 Dark Vader

Longshot I like: #7 Title Ready

Analysis: Trigger Warning looked good on the class rise/stretchout last time out. He has early speed and drew the rail, two categories that are winning a high percentage of races at Indiana Downs. The Brisnet speed figure from his last race exceeds par for this event, and he is tied with King Zachary, who has won two in a row, including a big score last race in Grade 3 competition following a step up from allowance level. Dark Vader is in solid form and could improve further in his third start off a layoff. Title Ready was a mere half-length behind my top choice in Ohio Derby, so I can't ignore.

Madison Jackson, And Away They Go (@andawayhrn)

Winner: #8 King Zachary

On the board: #1 Trigger Warning, #4 Dark Vader

Longshot I like: #4 Dark Vader

Analysis: It’s really hard to overlook the impressive Matt Winn winner, King Zachary, but there are a few I think could outrun their odds. Specifically, look for Dark Vader to sit just off the pace and be there at the wire.

Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)

Winner: #8 King Zachary

On the board: #4 Dark Vader, #7 Title Ready

Longshot I like: #2 Blame the Rider

Analysis: While my heart says Dark Vader can get this done, I cannot disregard the way King Zachary has improved so much from a close win an allowance to a coasting win in the Matt Winn. I still think Title Ready has a good race in him, though I'm not sure he is a true two-turn horse, or a dirt horse for that matter.

Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)

Winner: #8 King Zachary

On the board: #4 Dark Vader, #1 Trigger Warning

Longshot I like: #7 Title Ready

Analysis: The four horses above own the highest TimeformUS Speed Figures. Title Ready is the most interesting out of the group because he earned a 122 in the Ohio Derby, yet is 12-1 on the Indiana Derby morning line. If the line is accurate, then the grandson of Personal Ensign offers value.