Expert picks: How to bet the 2017 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita
The Great Race Place is back in business Tuesday when Santa Anita Park opens for its winter and spring meeting. Four graded stakes are on the docket, with our HRN network of contributors offering selections for both Grade 1 features carded.
See picks and a few plays below for the $300,000 Malibu featuring 3-year-olds going seven furlongs on the dirt. Post time is 6:48 p.m. ET.
Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #8 Dabster
On the board: #4 Favorable Outcome #6 Pavel
Longshot I like: #3 Irish Freedom
Analysis: After 10 months away from the track, Dabster came back to the races with a dominant win on Breeders’ Cup weekend. The Curlin colt will go here in his second start off the layoff. He's crossed the wire first all three races, but was disqualified in the debut. Dabster has won on and off the lead and is training right now lights out. Though the field will be tougher, Dabster should improve second time out and should benefit from a fast early pace. Bob Baffert has loved his training lately and he should go off at a nice price in here. If Dabster wins, I expect a dab from Bob and his team in the winners circle.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #9 C Z Rocket
On the board: #4 Favorable Outcome, #6 Pavel
Longshot I like: #3 Irish Freedom
Analysis: C Z Rocket is unbeaten in three starts, winning all with room to spare. Favorable Outcome is a Grade 2 winner from top connections. He’s 3-for-6, including a seven-furlong win. Pavel finds an easier spot than his previous two, but the short distance off the long rest could be testing. Irish Freedom goes third time off the layoff, often a horse’s best, but he also might prefer two turns.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #6 Pavel
On the board: #3 Irish Freedom, #9 C Z Rocket
Long shot I like: #8 Dabster
Analysis: I like this distance for Pavel, the classy Creative Cause colt who broke his maiden in his debut sprinting and has gone long in all four efforts since.
Chip Gehrke, On the air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
Winner: #9 C Z Rocket
On the board: #6 Pavel, #1 City of Light
Longshot I like: #1 City of Light
Analysis: C Z Rocket should be able to steer clear of trouble and lay off of the speed. Look for him to sweep past them all in the stretch. Pavel could very well win this if he can forget about the Breeders’ Cup debacle. City of Light was the victim of an extreme inside bias last out and should fare better here.
Jarrod Horak, winninghorsepicks.com (@jchorak)
Winner: #4 Favorable Outcome
On the board: #9 C Z Rocket, #6 Pavel
Longshot I Like: #8 Dabster
Analysis: Favorable Outcome is the only graded stakes winner at this distance, and he is 3-for-4 overall on a fast track. C Z Rocket is 3-for-3, and Pavel is a graded route winner turning back in distance. Dabster is lightly raced and on the upswing for Baffert.
The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4/6-8-9, Exacta 6-8-9/4, Trifecta 4/ALL/6-8-9
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #3 Irish Freedom
On the board: #6 Pavel, #4 Favorable Outcome
Longshot I like: #8 Dabster
Analysis: Irish Freedom has some decent numbers on his PPs but I see this as an evenly matched field.
Christine Oser, (@cb_oser)
Winner: #8 Dabster
On the board: #4 Favorable Outcome, #9 C Z Rocket
Longshot I like: #1 City of Light
Analysis: A good portion of the field is looking to make a big step up in this Grade 1, including some lightly raced horses making their first stakes attempt. Though there’s a few I like here, I’m going with the Bob Baffert trainee Dabster, who’s been racing out in California and most recently won at seven furlongs, also from a wide post position.