Expert picks: How to bet Saturday's Robert B. Lewis
Saturday’s Grade 3, $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes doesn’t contain the star power of other 2018 Kentucky Derby preps. But given its wide-open nature, we selected it as the race of the week for our HRN contributors to submit their picks.
Post time is 5:34 p.m. ET for a race that includes maidens and winners — but not yet a stakes winner. Who will add to his resume?
Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #7 Peace
On the board: #5 Shivermetimbers, #6 Inscom
Longshot I like: #8 Regulate
Analysis: Peace is a horse who, when given pace to run at and with the right trip, can be a good one. He didn't have that in his last start, but despite going wide the whole way, Peace was able to win. Coming into the Bob Lewis, he has been training forward very nicely and gets “Big Money” Mike Smith in the saddle. Peace has faced tougher in the past. He was the second-place finisher in a maiden race featuring future stakes winners Mourinho and Instilled Regard. With an improving training pattern and the right jockey, Peace may say “peace out” to the rest of this field.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #5 Shivermetimbers
On the board: #7 Peace, #1 Ayacara
Longshot I like: #3 Dark Vader
Analysis: Shivermetimbers has recorded better speed figures than his rivals. Running style helps. Two-thirds of all route races at the meet won by early types. Peace was narrowly beaten by the top choice two back, and finished in between two pretty good colts in his debut. Ayacara goes third time off the layoff and get first time blinkers, two categories in which his trainer excels. Dark Vader looks ready to roll after four works in three weeks.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #4 Lombo
On the Board: #5 Shivermetimbers, #7 Peace
Longshot I Like: #2 Dark Vader
Analysis: Seems like a paceless race, so anyone with a bit of gate speed and a smart rider can carry it wire to wire. I like Lombo, under Flavien Prat, to do this, and I think he might get overlooked at the windows due to the flashier contenders from Baffert, Mandella & Hollendorfer. Shivermetimbers and Peace will track the leader, like a merry-go-round. Dark Vader has been training very well and has come off the pace in a slower race to win. Dangerous.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #5 Shivermetimbers
On the Board: #3 Dark Vader, #7 Peace
Longshot: #8 Regulate
Analysis: Shivermetimbers has been running against really nice horses, including Grade 3 Sham Stakes winner McKinzie, and has the best speed figure on paper. Dark Vader is a very attractive young horse and has been training well. As for the longshot, I am going for the maiden trained by Bob Baffert. The colt has raced three times, and finished on the board once, which was at Santa Anita traveling the same distance. In the long run, I'd like to see Regulate on the turf.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #5 Shivermetimbers
On the board: #3 Dark Vader, #7 Peace
Longshot I like: #3 Dark Vader
Analysis: In a race with little pace, Shivermetimbers looks to rebound off his performance in the Sham, a race in which he was forced to check sharply at the top of the stretch when in contention. He’s the only horse in the field who has consistently run Brisnet speed figures of at least 90 in all of his starts, and the highly regarded Peace, and longshot Dark Vader, offer late pace numbers worthy of swooping in late to hit the board.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #8 Regulate
On the board: #5 Shivermetimbers, #7 Peace
Longshot I like: #1 Ayacara
Analysis: Shivermetimbers and Peace are not dominantly fast and lack value. On the other hand, the Bob Baffert-trained Regulate is worth a shot at 8-1. His form is dirtied up because of the Jan. 19 fade, but he faced a tough pace scenario in that race and should bounce back with a better effort this time.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper’s Corner (@Cappercorner)
Winner: #4 Lombo
On the board: #5 Shivermetimbers, #7 Peace
Longshot I like: #3 Dark Vader
Analysis: Lombo has a sprinter’s speed in a race with little early pace on paper, a major threat to wire the field. Shivermetimbers owns the best speed figures in the field and will be forwardly placed, so expect a good effort as well.
Christine Oser, (@cb_oser)
Winner: #7 Peace
On the board: #4 Lombo, #5 Shivermetimbers
Longshot I like: #3 Dark Vader
Analysis: Peace has been up against some good maiden winners on the West Coast, and he should fare well in a field with no previous stakes winners. Lombo has been showing improvement, and the Robert B. Lewis gives him a chance to show just how much he has progressed while Shivermetimbers gets a shot to redeem himself against an easier stakes field.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #4 Lombo
On the Board: #7 Peace #5 Shivermetimbers
Long shot I like: #8 Regulator
Analysis: Lombo, from Graydar's first crop, has begun to figure it out, and I believe he is getting better with each race.