Expert picks: Predictions for Saturday's Rebel Stakes
While Solomini can further prove the West Coast talent on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail, he's not the only threatening invader in Saturday's Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel Stakes. Unbeaten Magnum Moon and Curlin's Honor also ship in for big barns for their stakes debuts at Oaklawn Park.
They'll take on a strong local cast that includes Combatant and Sporting Chance, the second- and third-place finishers in January's first local Derby prep, the Southwest Stakes.
Eleven in all are set to go postward at 7:09 p.m. ET Saturday. And, note: There's a chance of rain in Hot Springs, Ark.
Check out the picks from Horse Racing Nation contributors:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #7 Sporting Chance, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #2 Curlin’s Honor
Analysis: Solomini is the class of the field. The runner-up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile is coming in off sharp workouts and good draw. Trainer Bob Baffert has won six out of the last eight Rebels, including with American Phaorah for Solomini's owners, Zayat Stables. Solomini has performed much better in the afternoons than the mornings, though Baffert has said he has grown bigger and stronger, mentally and physically, since last seen at the races. If a more focused Solomini shows up Saturday, it could be a another big day at Oaklawn for Baffert and the Zayats.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #7 Sporting Chance, #4 Magnum Moon
Longshot I like: #1 Title Ready
Analysis: Solomini has never run a bad race in four starts. Opponents from his 2-year old season have come back to perform well. This is a deep field, so he will have to be 100%. I'm a believer. Sporting Chance is a big talent who needed his last start, so expect improvement here. Magnum Moon is hard to ignore, looking brilliant in his two career starts. We'll find out if the colt is ready for the big time. Title Ready has a win at the distance over the track, always a plus.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #7 Sporting Chance
On the board: #8 High North, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #8 High North
Analysis: Sporting Chance has a pace advantage here, and trainer D. Wayne Lukas has had him pointed for this race all along. Had a great comeback run in the Southwest and should be sitting on a big race. Combatant for Steve Asmussen will make his same late run but likely comes up short once again. High North comes out of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which has been a key race all season; don't leave him off your tickets!
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #4 Magnum Moon, #7 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #10 Combatant
Analysis: On paper, there is not a lot of apparent speed, so I think Solomini can get a good sitting position just behind horses who are a bit quicker than him and get first jump on the turn. Magnum Moon is being hyped, and I am buying into it this time. Sporting Chance gets another opportunity here second off the layoff. Combatant isn't exactly a longshot, but I think he has been second in his last three races and it might be he is a tier below the rest.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #7 Sporting Chance
On the board: #3 Solomini, #4 Magnum Moon
Longshot I like: #1 Title Ready
Analysis: Sporting Chance ran close to a hot pace in the Southwest and should be more prepared in his second start off the layoff. None of the speedballs from the Southwest are in this spot, either. Plus, all the attention will go to the Baffert and Pletcher stars, so Lukas' colt will offer some value.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Capppercorner)
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #2 Curlin's Honor, #4 Magnum Moon
Longshot I like: #2 Curlin's Honor
Analysis: Solomini is head and shoulders above this group. He is a very versatile runner and owns the best speed figures of the bunch. Magnum Moon appears to be talented, but is pretty light on seasoning. The Todd Pletcher runner may be over-bet. Curlin's Honor had a horrible trip in his seasonal debut over a wet track. Look for improvement second off the bench while getting more ground.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride (@barbaroloverrr)
Winner: #7 Sporting Chance
On the board: #3 Solomini, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #2 Curlin’s Honor
Analysis: It will be a fight to the finish for Sporting Chance and Solomini, who are both cranked to run a huge race. Combatant could pick up the pieces.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #7 Sporting Chance, #2 Curlin's Honor
Longshot I like: #10 Combatant
Analysis: Solomini has been up against the best on the West Coast and held his own against them, even finishing ahead of Bolt d'Oro in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and beating McKinzie in the Los Alamitos Futurity before disqualified to third. As for Sporting Chance, he managed third in the Southwest after a long layoff, an off track and running his first route race. He should come back with an even better effort. The Rebel will be a big test for Curlin's Honor as he stretches out and moves up in class, but the $1.5 million purchase hasn't disappointed yet.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #2 Curlin's Honor, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #1 Title Ready
Analysis: If Solomini holds his form, he should be difficult to beat. My picks are heavy on Curlin's progeny and Steve Ausmussen as trainer. He knows how to get horses to peak at the right time.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #3 Solomini
On the board: #4 Magnum Moon, #7 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #9 Zing Zang
Analysis: Much depends on the afternoon track. Even with 40% chance of late thunderstorms, I would favor the inside posts and the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes winner, Sporting Chance. Asmussen's Tapit colt, Zing Zang, is interesting and matches trainer's ‘do.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)
Winner: #7 Sporting Chance
On the board: #3 Solomini, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #8 High North
Analysis: Solomini is the class of the field, but he may need a race. Sporting Chance knocked the rust off last out and was cost a better placing due to getting mugged by Combatant in the stretch. I like that Sporting Chance sat behind the pace last time, and he definitely benefited from that experience. High North hails from a key race, so don't be surprised if he snags a piece of the pie.