Expert picks: How to bet Gulfstream's 2018 Florida Derby
Coming out of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, Promises Fulfilled has the points to move on to Churchill Downs. Will he run his top race? Meanwhile, that race's runner-up, Strike Power, needs to hit the board again, with Grade 2 winners Audible and Catholic Boy joining this competitive field of nine.
Post time is set for 6:36 p.m. ET at Gulfstream Park with this one going as the last of 14 races. Once you're ready to place a bet, sign up for a TVG account to receive $20 instantly toward betting the Florida Derby Day card. Additionally, TVG will match deposits up to $75.
Here's a look at the Horse Racing Nation picks:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #6 Catholic Boy
On the board: #1 Strike Power, #8 Audible
Longshot I like: #9 Mississippi
Analysis: If there is a race that fits Catholic Boy's running style, it's the Florida Derby. He will get pace in front of him and a new jockey in Irad Oritz Jr., a huge plus for him. He comes in off a sharp workout over the Gulfstream surface. His last race in the Sam Davis (G3) was solid. Though he couldn't get past the leader, he got more out of this race and should be sharp. Catholic Boy has looked very good since switching to the dirt, and as he will lay close to the pace. Look for him to stalk and pounce.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #6 Catholic Boy
On the board: #8 Audible, #4 Promises Fulfilled
Longshot I like: #9 Mississippi
Analysis: Catholic Boy has already won at nine furlongs. He was wide in his Tampa return and just missed. Has real talent and receives a positive jockey switch. Audible stretched out nicely going two turns with a breakout win in the Holy Bull. A repeat effort would make him tough to deny. Promises Fulfilled dominated the FOY with his speed. A wire-to-wire job may not be so easy in here. Mississippi makes his stakes debut with solid experience over the surface. His outstanding breeding makes this runner worth watching.
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #4 Promises Fulfilled
On the board: #6 Catholic Boy, #8 Audible
Longshot I like: #9 Mississippi
Analysis: After picking the runner-up in both of last week's preps, I'm hoping to turn things around with Promises Fulfilled, whose sire, Shackleford, is the horse who made me fall for racing. Sentimentality aside, I think Promises Fulfilled is one of the most underrated horses on the Derby trail, with his only loss coming in third place after popping a splint in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Prior to that, he ran the fastest seven furlongs ever for a 2-year-old at Keeneland. It takes a very talented horse to wire the Fountain of Youth from the far outside post off a 14-week layoff, and he produced a flashy 104 Brisnet Speed Rating (one tick below Audible's 105 Holy Bull).
Jonathan Lintner, Derby Daily (@JonathanLintner)
Winner: #6 Catholic Boy
On the board: #1 Strike Power, #4 Promises Fulfilled
Longshot I like: #7 Hofburg
Analysis: I like Catholic Boy second off the layoff here, even though he has plenty of spacing between starts. He was obviously short last time and still nearly won, hanging a bit near the wire. A win at this distance in the Remsen adds to my confidence in him. Plus, Catholic Boy...on Easter weekend. The stories write themselves sometimes. Strike Power also looks eligible to improve and should push Promises Fulfilled on the front end. Hofburg is that horse you just can't afford to leave off your tickets given the connections.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #6 Catholic Boy
On the board: #8 Audible, #1 Strike Power
Longshot I like: #7 Hofburg
Analysis: As impressive as Audible's Holy Bull win was, I'm hesitant to place him on top with his stablemate clearly beating him to the wire in his last work. Catholic Boy was a hard-fought second in the Sam F. Davis and won at 1 1/8 miles before that in the Remsen, the same distance as the Florida Derby. Strike Power's rail position should help him carry his speed, and Hofburg is making a big step up but his impressive maiden win wasn't too far off from the Fountain of Youth final time.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #8 Audible
On the board: #4 Promises Fulfiiled, #6 Catholic Boy
Longshot I like: #9 Mississippi
Analysis: The Florida Derby goes through Audible. This Todd Pletcher trainee loves the track and is doing everything right. I also like Promises Fulfilled, especially with Robby Albarado back in the irons.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #4 Promises Fulfilled
On the board: #6 Catholic Boy, #1 Strike Power
Longshot I like: #7 Hofburg
Analysis: This is a 'just because...' type of race: Promises Fulfilled because of Shack and Dale Romans; Catholic Boy because of the Easter hunch play; Strike Power because of recent ink and Hofburg because he's a Tapit colt trained by Bill Mott.