Expert picks: How to bet Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes
Quip’s expected defection leaves as many as 13 set to go at 6:23 p.m. ET Saturday, with at least the winner and runner-up to move on to Churchill Downs.
As for the story lines, Good Magic will look to rebound off a third-place effort in his season debut, while Free Drop Billy is poised to make it another Breeders’ Futurity-Blue Grass double fo the Dale Romans barn. Grade 1 winner Sporting Chance ships in from Arkansas and Kanthaka from the West Coast.
Now, to the picks:
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post (@thederbypost)
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #12 Flameaway, #4 Kanthaka
Longshot I like: #3 California Night
Analysis: After a decent but no so impressive 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth, Good Magic is ready to win. He will have to earn it in this field.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #12 Flameaway
On the board: #11 Good Magic, #10 Free Drop Billy
Longshot I like: #6 Marconi
Analysis: Flameaway has been coming into his own since switching to dirt. His game, front-running score in the Sam Davis earned him respect, and his second in the Tampa Bay Derby was also impressive. He has turned in stellar works since that race and looks ready to go for the Blue Grass. He can go to the lead or stalk the pace, and with Quip scratching, he looks to be the pace setter. If he can control the pace and set his own tempo, he can win. Plus with a likely sloppy track, his stock goes up further. He won the Bourbon Stakes going two turns on an off track at Keeneland last fall, a huge plus. Flameaway, with a sloppy track and a good pace, can pick up another win in the Blue Grass.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #10 Free Drop Billy, #12 Flameaway
Longshot I like: #4 Kanthaka
Analysis: It's do or die time for Good Magic. The Juvenile Champ was a bit short and ran in spots in Fountain of Youth. Should be tighter now. Gets decent pace to stalk. We find out if he has made the transition from 2 to 3. Free Drop Billy was solid in the Holy Bull but was out of his element distance-wise last out in a one-turn mile. Gets back to two turns and has won over this surface. Flameaway is consistent and versatile. He has won from an outside post at Keeneland. Kanthaka’s chances really improve if the pace is hot.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #12 Flameaway, #9 Tiz Mischief
Longshot I like: #7 Blended Citizen
Analysis: Ultimately, I went with Good Magic because his back class is the best of any horse in this field. I am hoping Chad Brown has him cranked more than he did in the Fountain of Youth. I saw Tiz Mischief break his maiden at Keeneland at 2, and I like that he is back for another run around the track. Overall, the best looking horse to me is one who needs to step up in class, Blended Citizen. He has looked amazing training at Keeneland and looks strong coming into this race.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #6 Marconi, #13 Machismo
Longshot I like: #1 Zing Zang
Analysis: Every horse competing here from the Fountain of Youth Stakes faced a slow pace in which to close. While Good Magic is the obvious choice, Marconi and Machismo will offer more value for bettors. Out of the latter two choices, Machismo will probably break sharper (he will need to from Post 13) and offer more speed.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper's Corner (@Capppercorner)
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #10 Free Drop Billy, #6 Marconi
Longshot I like: #4 Kanthaka
Analysis: Good Magic shook off the rust last out when returning from a four-month vacation. Look for him to bounce back with authority. Free Drop Billy loves Keeneland and will get plenty of pace to close into late. Marconi is a late-running plodder that gets the services of world-class jockey Ryan Moore after catching a slow early pace last out. Must be included in all exotics, as he already has three good efforts at nine furlongs in his four-race career.
Olivia Newman, The Final Stride (@barbaroloverrr)
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #12 Flameaway, #5 Quip
Longshot I like: #2 Sporting Chance
Analysis: Good Magic is coming off a very sharp bullet workout. The Fountain of Youth was a good tightener. I think he’s sitting on a big effort. Flameaway and Quip’s running style should benefit them and allow them to sit off the pace and rally in the stretch. If Sporting Chance is forwardly placed and is in control of the race, he could certainly hit the board.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #12 Flameaway
On the board: #11 Good Magic, #10 Free Drop Billy
Longshot I like: #2 Sporting Chance
Analysis: Although he's facing some tougher horses, Flameaway has shown consistency and comes in off two good dirt races at Tampa Bay Downs, winning the Sam F. Davis and finishing a close second in the Tampa Bay Derby. Good Magic, though third in the Fountain of Youth, should be sharper after getting a race in this year. As for Free Drop Billy, he's hit the board in his two starts this year and already has a big win over Keeneland's track.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #11 Good Magic
On the board: #12 Flameaway, #4 Kanthaka
Longshot I like: #7 Blended Citizen
Analysis: Good Magic is consistently solid, and Flameaway is peaking at the right time. Kanthanka intriguies, as he has run in fine company and finished in the money. He also boasts a jockey who thrives in deep tracks and opted off of Flameaway to ride.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)
Winner: #12 Flameaway
On the board: #11 Good Magic, #2 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #6 Marconi
Analysis: This is a rather competitive field, but I do think a couple stand out above the rest. I think Flameaway looks good and has done nothing wrong, but Good Magic should improve in his second start off the layoff. Marconi needs the distance and could be coming late.