Expert picks: How to bet Oaklawn Park's Southwest Stakes
Monday’s Grade 3, $500,000 Southwest Stakes — a Presidents’ Day special on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail — matches up Grade 1 winner Sporting Chance in his return race against Mourinho, an impressive last-out winner at Oaklawn Park.
To add are a handful of up-and-coming colts hoping to take the next step, including Ezmosh, a recent allowance runner-up flattered heavily by Bravazo’s victory in this weekend’s Grade 2 Risen Star.
With post time set for 6:10 p.m. ET, the Horse Racing Nation crew weighed in with its Southwest picks. Good luck!
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #11 Ezmosh
On the board: #4 Mourinho, # 2 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #10 Combatant
Analysis: He may be 1-for-6 lifetime, but Ezmosh has run great races in his short career. He broke his maiden by beating stakes runners Tiz Mischief and Arrival. He finished second last out to recent Risen Star winner Bravazo. Ezmosh may be in the far outside post, but veteran Gary Stevens picks up the mount, while red-hot trainer Brad Cox has prepared this horse methodically. If he can get to the lead and set a modest pace, Bravazo could get it done.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #10 Combatant
On the board: #4 Mourinho, #2 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #1 My Boy Jack
Analysis: Combatant should be in prime position behind all the speed just waiting to pounce. Mourinho could have company up front this time, leaving him vulnerable in the late stages. Tough comeback spot for Sporting Chance, but considered a threat with his talent, pedigree, works and D. Wayne Lukas. My Boy Jack should be tighter after his latest outing. His closing style will be aided by the anticipated quick pace.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner:#10 Combatant
On the Board: #2 Sporting Chance, #4 Mourhino
Longshot I Like: #1 My Boy Jack
Analysis: There is a ton of speed in this race. I like Mourhino to move up, but he has a chance to burn out. I think Combatant has a chance to sit a nice trip behind the early speed, which will consist of horses like Mourhino, Retirement Fund, Seven Trumpets, Road to Damascus and possibly Sporting Chance. I don't see Sporting Chance winning off the layoff in this spot, but he does have a chance to hit the board. He is a classy horse based on his 2-year-old form. My Boy Jack, the No. 1 horse, is a closer, and with the race setting up for speed horses on the front end, he has a chance to get up for a prize — and maybe even the win.
Jonathan Lintner, Derby Daily
Winner: #4 Mourinho
On the board: #10 Combatant, #6 Seven Trumpets
Longshot I like: #11 Ezmosh
Analysis: This one seems pretty straightforward. Mourinho will get more of an early challenge, but I believe he’s the superior talent and can carry that speed. Sporting Chance would have to be a big horse to win off that kind of a layoff. Combatant is an improving type who should sit nicely off the pace with Seven Trumpets.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #8 Zing Zang
On the board: #2 Sporting Chance, #4 Mourinho, #10 Combatant
Longshot I like: #1 My Boy Jack
Analysis: As long as there are no scratches other than Principe Guilherme, the Southwest has pace collapse written all over it. Ezmosh will not rate, and Mourinho will run hard early too. Zing Zang gets another chance to capitalize.
Jasen Mangrum, Handicapper’s Corner (@Cappercorner)
Winner: #1 My Boy Jack
On the board: #10 Combatant, #5 Road to Damascus
Longshot I like: #8 Zing Zang
Analysis: In a race loaded with front-runners, look for My Boy Jack to improve second off the layoff. Last out, the son of Creative Cause was a little too keen early, but expect him to be further off the pace in his second dirt route. Combatant rallied well into a slow pace over the track last out. Improvement is expect with a faster pace and more distance.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #4 Mourinho
On the board: #10 Combatant, #2 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #7 Retirement Fund
Analysis: Mourinho hasn't appeared to slow down since winning the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park last out, and Combatant has finished behind West Coast invaders twice now. Sporting Chance has put in some nice works at Oaklawn, but might need a race after a five-month layoff.
Ashley Tamulonis, From Coast to Coast (@Florida_Filly)
Winner: #10 Combatant
On the board: #4 Mourinho, #2 Sporting Chance
Longshot I like: #1 My Boy Jack
Analysis: There will be no free ride on the lead for Mourinho, especially with Sporting Chance in the field. Those two have the class, but I think Combatant improves on his runner-up finish in the Smarty Jones by sitting right behind all the speed and pouncing in the stretch.