Expert picks: How to bet Friday's Kentucky Oaks 2018
Viewed initially as a two-horse race, the 2018 Kentucky Oaks became something more when morning line favorite Monomoy Girl drew the No. 14 post, farthest outside for Friday's race at Churchill Downs. The second choice in the East vs. West showdown is Midnight Bisou, who shipped in off a victory in the Santa Anita Oaks.
To add, rain is in the forecast, with a number of runners potentially moving up over an off track.
Post time is set for 6:12 p.m. ET at Churchill, where NBC Sports Network will be broadcasting live. Before placing your bets, consider these picks by the Horse Racing Nation staff:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #13 Eskimo Kisses
On the board: #14 Monomoy Girl, #11 My Miss Lilly
Longshot I like: #5 Wonder Gadot
Analysis: Eskimo Kisses has done little wrong in seven starts. Along with two wins, she has four second-place finishes, and appears poised to run the race of her life Friday. Coming from off the pace, Eskimo Kisses should get a solid pace to run at, and from post 13 should stay in the clear of trouble. With rain in the forecast, she will be a player, as she scored her second win with an 11-length win in the slop at Oaklawn. She was flying in the Fair Grounds Oaks to just miss. She got no pace to run at in the Ashland, but finished well clear of third. She has plenty of talent, and the Oaks could be her breakout race.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #13 Eskimo Kisses
On the board: #14 Monomoy Girl, #10 Midnight Bisou
Longshot I like: #11 My Miss Lilly
Analysis: With a 90% chance of rain predicted for Oaks day, Eskimo Kisses is my call. The filly absolutely freaked in the mud winning by 11 at Oaklawn Park, by far her best race. Monomoy Girl is marooned in the far outside post, but her remarkable versatility makes her very dangerous. Midnight Bisou’s latest victory in the Santa Anita Oaks was run in slow time, but visually she was very impressive. My Miss Lilly proved herself at nine furlongs when she took a big step forward to win the Gazelle. Her Brisnet speed figure from that contest is tops in the field
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #6 Kelly's Humor
On the board: #13 Eskimo Kisses, #7 Rayya
Longshot I like: #6 Kelly's Humor
Analysis: This is where I am going to try and make some Derby pocket money. With the Top 2 choices drawing near the outside, I am going to look elsewhere and go with a closer who nobody is talking about, Kelly's Humor. Eskimo Kisses will take the money for her second-place run vs Monomoy Girl in the Ashland, and Chocolate Martini for the same reason coming out of the Fair Grounds Oaks. But those were hard-driving finishes that must have zapped some energy. Kelly's Humor is more lightly raced this year and should be sharp for this race. Best of all, she'll be a huge price. Rayya could just run away with it like Rachel Alexandra, but there's so little to go on with her international form. I will let that filly beat me.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #14 Monomoy Girl
On the board: #10 Midnight Bisou, #7 Rayya
Longshot I like: #4 Chocolate Martini
Analysis: Monomoy Girl is simply the best here, and while many think the 14 post is the kiss of death for her, she has come from off the pace before. Midnight Bisou is my pick if it were to rain, especially given she sports the pedigree for the mud. Chocolate Martini is the true rags to riches story this year, starting out as a claimer and ending up in the Kentucky Oaks. What isn't to like?
Averie Levanti, 31 Lengths
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #11 My Miss Lilly, #14 Monomoy Girl
Longshot I like: #13 Eskimo Kisses
Analysis: I've loved Midnight Bisou since her first race this year, and she's done nothing to deter me. Monomoy Girl is a deserved favorite, but with the far outside post, quite a few speed horses in the race and a pedigree that seems best suitable for a mile, I'm willing to try and beat her. I love Eskimo Kisses picking up a pieces late, and decided to throw in My Miss Lilly after the numbers her Gazelle win produced, plus how great she's looked in the mornings. It's worth noting there is rain on the projected forecast. After assessing the track on Friday, I'll either play a trifecta, including Rayya, 10 with 7,11,13,14 with 7,11,13,14; or a trifecta box 10,11,13,14.
Jonathan Lintner, Derby Daily, @JonathanLintner
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #2 Coach Rocks, #14 Monomoy Girl
Longshot I like: #13 Eskimo Kisses
Analysis: I was planning to pick Midnight Bisou in this one even before Monomoy Girl's outside post draw. That only reinforced the decision. She'll take well to the track if it rains given the last-out performance and will make her own trip.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace (@tracinglifemore)
Winner: #11 My Miss Lilly
On the board: #14 Monomoy Girl, #10 Midnight Bisou
Longshot I like: #7 Rayya
Analysis: My Miss Lilly shows roughly the same speed figures as Midnight Bisou, yet the majority of attention will fall toward the latter. If the pace is fast enough, expect both closing fillies to contend in the late stages. As for Monomoy Girl, she will need to work out a trip from Post 14, although the old quote that "good horses find a way to win" might apply.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #14 Monomoy Girl, #4 Chocolate Martini
Longshot I like: #11 My Miss Lilly
Analysis: There is a lot of speed in the race and Midnight Bisou is versatile, and can win from on or off the pace. She has also run on an off track which could be very important with the forecast Friday. Chocolate Martini will put in a strong bid. She couldn’t look any better.
Christine Oser (@cb_oser)
Winner: #14 Monomoy Girl
On the board: #10 Midnight Bisou, #13 Eskimo Kisses
Longshot I like: #11 My Miss Lilly
Analysis: If Monomoy Girl hadn't overcome the wide post and slow in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, there might be more concern over her position in the Oaks. She stands a good shot to hold off Midnight Bisou if she breaks clean and finds a good position, and she brings in more stakes experience than some of the improving Oaks runners.
Mary Dixon Reynolds, The Gallop Out (@nchorseplayer)
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #14 Monomoy Girl, #3 Classy Act
Longshot I like: #9 Take Charge Paula
Analysis: Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl are the class of the field with, respectively, Mike Smith and Florent Geroux in the irons. But Monomoy Girl's post position gives Midnight Bisou the edge.
Kate Richards, Racing Hearts
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #7 Rayya, #14 Monomoy Girl
Longshot I like: #4 Chocolate Martini
Analysis: Midnight Bisou checks the boxes for consistency. Rayya traveled well and finished second to Mendelssohn in Dubai. Monomoy Girl is quality, and Chocolate Martini deserves inclusion given her improvements.
Jason Wood, The Paddock View, @JasonWWood
Winner: #14 Monomoy Girl
On the board: #4 Chocolate Martini, #10 Midnight Bisou
Longshot I like: #9 Take Charge Paula
Analysis: It's hard to go against Brad Cox and Florent Geroux with the year they are having. This is their race to lose. But with that said, keep an eye on track conditions. Value may be lurking if rain falls.
Brian Zipse, Zipse at the Track, @Zipseatthetrack
Winner: #10 Midnight Bisou
On the board: #13 Eskimo Kisses, #14 Monomoy Girl
Longshot I like: #13 Eskimo Kisses
Analysis: Midnight Bisou has been my Oaks filly since her first win early this year, and I only like her more now. This year's Oaks should have a solid pace, and with her main competition parked way outside, she should roll by in the stretch. I expect Eskimo Kisses to be picking up the pieces late at very attractive odds.