Expert picks: Gold Cup at Santa Anita 2018 predictions
The handicap division is begging for a new star horse, and perhaps we'll get it coming out of Saturday's Gold Cup at Santa Anita, a Grade 1 West Coast race going 1 1/4 miles.
Not only is this event a rematch between the red-hot City of Light and Accelerate, who dueled to the wire last time in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), but trainer Bob Baffert has an up-and-comer named Dr. Dorr in the mix.
It's a compact but talented field set to go postward at 5:40 p.m. ET. Here are the picks, predictions and handicapping advice from Horse Racing Nation's contributors:
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner (@jeffbyrnes96)
Winner: #2 Accelerate
On the board: #4 City of Light, #5 Dr. Dorr
Longshot I like: #6 Pavel
Analysis: AAccelerate has shown consistency over his career, finishing in the money in 14 of his 16 starts. Winner of the Big 'Cap, he was also third in his only other mile and a quarter race, the Pacific Classic. So I believe he holds the distance advantage over City of Light this time. I expect those two to set the pace before Accelerate makes his move after pressing at the front. This could be a replay of their stretch duel of the Oaklawn Handicap. I'll play 2-4-5-6 Superfecta box, as these four are better than the other rivals.
Nick Costa, Trackside with Trackman
Winner: #4 City of Light
On the board: #5 Dr. Dorr, #2 Accelerate
Longshot I like: #6 Pavel
Analysis: City of Light jumped from entry level allowance company to win a Grade 1 in his stakes debut. He then added two additional wins at G1/G2 level. This marks his third start in the current form cycle and appears ready for another top effort. Dr Dorr absolutely loves Santa Anita, where he's 5-for-7. He also rides a three-race win streak. Ran a whopper last time out, earning his highest speed figure. Finds tougher here but has Bob Baffert on his side. Accelerate narrowly lost as the beaten favorite last race. He recently won at the distance over this track, and he beat Arrogate last summer. Remember? Dangerous if he flashes back to that form. Pavel ran against the speed bias at Meydan, beating more than half the field in the World Cup.
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby (@doctorderby)
Winner: #5 Dr. Dorr
On the board: #2 Accelerate, #6 Pavel
Longshot I like: #5 Dr. Dorr
Analysis: The Californian Stakes used to be a premier race, with whatever horse winning it the favorite the Gold Cup. With Dr. Dorr, this year the Californian winner may be back in the winner's circle in this legendary race. He will appreciate the added distance that I am not sure City of Light will like. Dr. Dorr offers the best value at the windows as well. Accelerate has been very consistent this year and should be respected. Pavel has the most upside of these, but until he breaks through with a major win I can't pick him on top.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider (@WritingCasey)
Winner: #4 City of Light
On the board: #5 Dr. Dorr, #2 Accelerate
Longshot I like: #6 Pavel
Analysis: I think City of Light has potential to become the best older horse in the country, and his record confirms his talent. This is a great test for him to show his class and distance capabilities. Dr. Dorr is moving up, as he should, and looks like a tough customer here. Accelerate was beat last time out by City of Light, I can easily see a repeat of the Oaklawn Handicap finish.
Olivia Newman, @barbaroloverrr, The Final Stride
Winner: #4 City of Light
On the board: #5 Dr. Dorr, #2 Accelerate
Longshot I like: #6 Pavel
Analysis: City of Light will be able to stalk Little Scotty and make his move to the front. He turned in a sharp six-furlong workout and looks set to stretch out. Should Pavel get a better trip this time than in the Dubai World Cup, he could certainly hit the board.