Expert picks: Fountain of Youth 2020 predictions, longshots
Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes presents a tricky set of questions for handicappers surrounding the favorite, Dennis' Moment.
Is he a tough-luck horse, or does this colt find his own trouble? Is he ready to run off the layoff? And is he as talented as his connections seem to think?
[Related - Get Saudi Cup info, picks and FREE PPs]
The son of Tiznow's squarely the one to beat in the 1 1 /16-mile Fountain of Youth, a major prep for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. A number of Horse Racing Nation contributors are looking to do just that with rival Ete Indien in particular.
Remember when forming your own opinions to check out free past performances with post time 6:04 p.m. ET. Good luck!
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Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #11 Ete Indien
On the board: #5 Dennis' Moment, #1 Candy Tycoon
Longshot I like: #7 Country Grammer
Analysis: Ete Indien is coming in off a nice second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) behind Tiz the Law when he was well clear of third. Since then, he has fired two bullet works, including a 48-second flat half mile last week at Palm Meadows in Florida. Here, he gets jockey Florent Geroux for the first time and sports a high cruising speed, which he will need to get away from post 11. Ete Indien has the right experience, loves the Gulfstream track, and judging by last work, the Holy Bull took very little out of him.
Dennis' Moment was the most discussed 2-year-old until his disastrous run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall. He makes his 2020 debut, and has come in with fast works, grown in size and a confident trainer in Dale Romans. The No. 5 post is a good spot, as he's not stuck outside like some of the other top contenders. The biggest question is if he'll need the race.
Candy Tycoon took five tries to break his maiden, but that win came around two turns at Gulfstream Park. From the rail, he'll certainly be going for the lead early. He could pose an upset chance, with that post winning at a solid clip this winter. Oh, and never count out Todd Pletcher on the Derby trail.
Country Grammer is the only horse in the field to win at as far as 1 1/8 miles. He'll shorten up a sixteenth here knowing he can stay the distance. He comes into a very tough spot and would have appeared in a Grade 2 stakes before if not for a temperature the week of the Remsen (G2) in December. From the 7 post, he can stalk the pace and hope the leaders come back to him.
My play: 11-5-1-7 superfecta box.
Nick Costa
Winner: #11 Ete Indien
On the board: #5 Dennis' Moment, #7 Country Grammer
Longshot I like: #7 Country Grammer
Analysis: Ete Indian enters off a solid second-place effort behind leading Kentucky Derby contender/Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law in the Holy Bull. The switch to dirt has really suited this horse, who now goes third start off the layoff with paired up speed figures that could have him primed for a top effort. Dennis’ Moment has two dominating victories that stand out on his resume, and this talented runner who has been working quickly for his return looks for redemption in this spot after his disappointment in the Breeders' Cup. Country Grammer won his maiden going nine furlongs in his second career start. That event turned out to be a "key" race with several horses returning to win next out. He could jump up and surprise at an attractive price.
Candice Curtis
Winner: #11 Ete Indien
On the board: #10 Shotski, #5 Dennis' Moment
Longshot I like: #1 Candy Tycoon
Analysis: Ete Indien ran a great race for second in the Holy Bull, and I see that sort of effort as enough to win here. Shotski cuts back in distance from 1 1/8-mile efforts in the Remsen and Withers (G3) and should be sharp. Dennis' Moment is a question mark for me. If his head is in the game, he will do very well here. If not... it's too much of a risk. Candy Tycoon is an interesting maiden winner who seems to be getting better as he grows up, and Pletcher knows how to bring these types along this time of year.
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #5 Dennis' Moment
On the board: #7 Country Grammer, #6 As Seen on Tv
Longshot I like: #8 Gear Jockey
Analysis: While I normally tend to look for value, I have this sinking feeling that Dennis' Moment is going to put in an ultra-impressive 3-year-old debut. He has a layoff to contend with, but that's about it. The field is long on entries and short on legitimate Derby contenders. Meanwhile, Country Grammer should easily outrun his 15-1 morning line odds. Gear Jockey, with a Grade 1 placing on turf, is a good one to use in exotics underneath. Dennis' Moment in a romp.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #7 Country Grammer
On the board: #6 As Seen on Tv, #5 Dennis' Moment
Longshot I like: #11 Ete Indien
Analysis: Country Grammer was an even fourth in his turf route bow and chased slow fractions yet easily beat a next-out winner at a mile and an eighth on dirt second time out. The $450,000 son of Tonalist fired a bullet for this on Feb. 16 and should get pace to chase. As Seen On Tv owns ascending numbers and can compete for the win if he can relax in his first start around two turns. Dennis’ Moment needs to get out of the gate. He dumped the rider and blew the break in two of his starts last year. He cruised in his other two starts and will probably chase the pace under his new rider, Flavien Prat, who's up with Irad Ortiz Jr. overseas for the Saudi Cup. Ete Indien fired big shots in both local dirt starts, including a clear place finish in the Holy Bull. Chance It drew the toughest post and may scratch. The Gulfstream specialist is probably going to stalk wide for the productive Tyler Gaffalione/Saffie Joseph Jr. team.
Wagers: #7 to win; exacta 7/5-6; exacta 5-6/7; Superfecta 6-7/5-6-7/ALL/5-6-7-11-12
Mark Midland
Winner: #10 Shotski
On the board: #6 As Seen on Tv, #5 Dennis' Moment
Longshot I like: #8 Gear Jockey
Analysis: Shotski went to the lead in the Remsen and Withers, two races without an abundance of pace like what is signed on here. I expect new jockey John Velazquez to let the other speed clear and get a good tracking position from an outside post. Shotski has some of the best speed figures this year, has already won going two turns and is working well. Gear Jockey is an interesting longshot. He's still a maiden but ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. He moved too soon in his most-recent effort over dirt, but he's working superb right now.
The play: $5 exacta 10 over 5-6, then flip it with 5-6 over the 10.
Olivia Newman
Winner: #11 Ete Indien
On the board: #5 Dennis' Moment, #10 Shotski
Longshot I like: #3 Masterday
Analysis: Ete Indien is training strong up to this race. He continues to improve, and will have to be back at his best to win Saturday, but I believe he can get the job done. Dennis Moment has been training great as well. Still, this is a tall order to ask for his first race back. If he’s as good as many thinks he is, he's a winner here. Shotski should improve off his second-place effort in the Withers. I see him sitting off the leaders this time.