Expert picks: Florida Derby predictions, longshots
Quick Guide to the 2019 Florida Derby
Leading up to post time at 6:36 p.m. ET, here's what the Horse Racing Nation crew has handicapped the Florida Derby, with free past performances also available courtesy of Brisnet.
Chip Gehrke, On the Air with Dr. Derby
Winner: #2 Current
On the board: #7 Maximum Security, #4 Bourbon War
Longshot I like: #2 Current
Analysis: Feeling this one's ripe for an upset, Current could very well spring it. He has never run over a dry dirt track, something he should relish, an his last work was outstanding. I rate him a big chance here. Maximum Security has been untouchable in his three career starts, but none have been past seven furlongs, and they were lower-class races. If he were able to win this he would skyrocket near the top of many Kentucky Derby lists. Bourbon War has been good in both starts this year but was aided by quick pace last out. He will appreciate the added distance, though.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #4 Bourbon War
On the board: #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #2 Current
Analysis: Bourbon War rallied and fell 3/4 of a length short as my top choice in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Here, he drew well, gets pace to chase and should love the added ground. Hidden Scroll drew the rail and almost has to go to the lead. He was sensational in his local flat mile debut on a wet track and actually did well to hold fourth after using too much early energy in the Fountain of Youth. He gets a rider switch to Javier Castellano and could easily go all the way. Code of Honor sat a great trip behind the speed from the inside post in the Fountain of Youth, and he is firing bullets for this. He might score again but won’t be 9-1 this time. Current has shown ability in the turf stakes ranks, and Todd Pletcher has been on a roll in recent points races. I can see him hitting the board at a price.
The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta Box 1-4, Trifecta 1-4/1-2-4-9/1-2-4-9, Trifecta 1/ALL/4
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #9 Code of Honor
On the board: #4 Bourbon War, #1 Hidden Scroll
Longshot I like: #2 Current
Analysis: While I am not sure Hidden Scroll will be able to rate like they want him to, I don't think he'll encounter as fast of a pace this time. However, I believe Code of Honor is a horse full of ability and class above his rivals. He is in the Derby field regardless of the results, but I think he could be a potential Kentucky Derby favorite if he runs to expectations Saturday.
Jonathan Lintner, Derby Daily
Winner: #9 Code of Honor
On the board: #4 Bourbon War, #1 Hidden Scroll
Longshot I like: #2 Current
Analysis: The rail about does it for Hidden Scroll in my opinion, and pace shouldn't make the race here quite as much as it did in the Fountain of Youth. That day, Code of Honor was nearly caught, but connections insist he was looking for horses. Bourbon War is a nice one, but I'm not expecting quite the setup, and Code of Honor offers a more tactical running style that should excel here.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #4 Bourbon War
On the board: #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #8 Bodexpress
Analysis: If Hidden Scroll drew better, he would be the pick. But the rail is an awful position for a speedy horse still learning this game. Bourbon War will get the right setup.
Laura Pugh, Dueling Down the Stretch
Winner: #1 Hidden Scroll
On the board: #4 Bourbon War, #9 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #10 Union's Destiny
Analysis: Hidden Scroll may be on the rail, but between him and Maximum Security are five horses completely devoid of speed. This sould give him the ability to either send or wait and see what Maximum Security will do before reacting. Either way, I consider it an ideal setup.