Expert picks: Fayette Stakes predictions, longshots
Five graded stakes winners square off in Saturday's competitive renewal of the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland. Tom’s d’Etat doesn't fall into that category, but the morning line favorite owns quality speed figures and should be close to moderate fractions.
You should note there is a good chance of rain in Lexington, Ky., with high temperatures in the upper 60s. The Fayette is the 9th race with an approximate post time of 5:30 p.m. ET.
Before listing out suggested wagers, let's meet the field.
The Favorite
#3 Tom’s d’Etat (2-1) is a lightly raced 6-year-old with a 7-for-14 record. The tactical type has struck three times at this distance. Saturday’s rider, Joel Rosario, guided him home twice at Saratoga, and both of those wins were at this nine furlong distance.
Value Win Contender
#5 Mocito Rojo (6-1) is a 17-for-25 win machine seeking his sixth straight victory. He is 2-for-2 at this distance and won a pair of grade three races this year. He is razor sharp and versatile.
Live Longshot
#10 Big Dollar Bill (12-1) is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, and he might move forward in his third start of the year. The horse for course can run all day and will try to get involved late.
Remaining Entrants
#1 The Great Day (20-1) set very slow splits and just held on in the Durham Cup at Woodbine Sept. 28. He handled dirt in Argentina but will have to run the race of his life to compete here.
#2 Mr Freeze (7-2) is a solid runner on dirt for Dale Romans. He won his career debut at Keeneland and romped in the West Virginia Derby (G3) in his lone start at this distance. The versatile colt has been a miler recently.
#4 Everfast (20-1) is a 1-for-14 sophomore, also from the Romans barn. He is frequently overmatched but occasionally surprises at long odds in the graded ranks, including seconds in the Preakness and Holy Bull (G2).
#6 Tenfold (15-1) is an all-or-nothing type for Steve Asmussen. He won the Jim Dandy (G2) last year and the Pimlico Special (G3) earlier this year, but did not do much in his last three graded starts.
#7 Core Beliefs (8-1) won the Ohio Derby (G3) last year and started off 2019 with a victory in the New Orleans at Fair Grounds. His last two graded tries in Southern California were not pretty, and maybe taking blinkers off will help him relax. It just seems like he has not progressed from age 3 to 4.
#8 Bal Harbour (7-2) ran well without winning in the graded ranks this year in the Woodward Stakes, Monmouth Cup, Iselin, and Salvator Mile. The tactical type is 0-for-4 at this distance, but he won his lone local route last year after being gelded.
#9 Own Agenda (30-1) finished second in all three local starts vs. lesser. He is up from the optional claiming ranks and appears outclassed.
Wagering Strategies
#5 to win
Exacta 5/3-10
Exacta 3-10/5
Trifecta 3-5/2-3-5-8-10/2-3-5-8-10
Trifecta 3-5/ALL/10