Expert picks: Breeders' Cup Classic predictions, longshots
McKinzie's the morning line for Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic, but he'll be a tepid top choice at best when they head postward at Santa Anita Park if these selections are any indication.
Ahead of the $6 million Classic, set for 8:44 p.m. ET, we polled Horse Racing Nation contributors for their thoughts on the championship event. Of the six, none picked McKinzie.
Read on for the alternatives, and when forming your own opinions, be sure to consult free past performances.
Bryan Brinkmeyer
Winner: #11 Code of Honor
On the board: #8 McKinzie, #6 Elate
Longshot I like: #3 Owendale
Analysis: McKinzie has not finished outside the exacta aside from that forgettable 12th-place finish in his first go at the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall. I predict another on-the-board finish but don't expect him to hold off improving 3-year-old Code of Honor. Elate is a must-play underneath for me, and Owendale is the top longshot that I think is worth putting on your trifecta ticket.
Jeffrey Byrnes
Winner: #10 Vino Rosso
On the board: #11 Code of Honor, #6 Elate
Longshot I like: #3 Owendale
Analysis: Vino Rosso has an outside post but should get a good pace to sit behind and stalk. He already has a win at Santa Anita over the distance and has trained well leading up to the Classic. He recorded a career-high speed figure last out and figures to still be rolling late. Code of Honor has won three in a row, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) via Vino Rosso's disqualification, and seems to get better with every start. He comes in off a sharp five-furlong work two weeks ago. The outside draw is an obstacle. Elate makes her final start in the Classic, entering 3-for-3 at the distance. The mare hasn't missed the board in 2019 and blew out three furlongs this week, perhaps an indicator she'll be near the pace if not on the lead. Owendale has won three out of his last five starts. Comes in off dominating win in the Oklahoma Derby (G3). Stronger as the year has gone on, he'll need the setup to have a shot.
I will play a superfecta box consisting of 10-11-6-3.
Nick Costa
Winner: #11 Code of Honor
On the board: #8 McKinzie, #10 Vino Rosso
Longshot I like: #6 Elate
Analysis: Code of Honor is a talented 3-year old who enters off three winning efforts, with his last two coming in definitive Grade 1 races at 10 furlongs, proving his class and ability to handle the distance. McKinzie has done some of his best running over the Santa Anita surface, hitting the exacta in all seven starts. He was beaten only a nose there in his lone try running this far. Vino Rosso has greatly improved as a 4-year old. The colt owns a prime win at Santa Anita, running extremely well that day going this distance.
At 7-2 or higher, Code of Honor is my win bet. I will exacta box him and McKinzie, and use both in exactas with the other two horses listed.
My trifecta play: 8,11/6,8,10,11/5,6,8,10,11.
Ryan Dickey
Winner: #5 Yoshida
On the board: #10 Vino Rosso, #8 McKinzie
Longshot I like: #1 Math Wizard
Analysis: This is a weak edition of the Classic so there's no sense in betting a short price when not too much separates the top contenders from the pretenders. I've landed on what should be a decent price in Yoshida, who rallied to miss by inside of two lengths last year. He's coming in with the same race pattern and again has a shot to upset.
Jarrod Horak
Winner: #10 Vino Rosso
On the board: #6 Elate, #11 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #7 Higher Power
Analysis: I am looking for past Grade 1 winners at a mile and a quarter, and I found four: Elate, Higher Power, Vino Rosso and Code of Honor. Of them, I like Vino Rosso's early pressing versatility, plus he is relatively fresh and dangerous. As for Elate, Bill Mott is one of the best in the business, and she would not be here if she did not have a very good chance. She is training smartly for this. Code of Honor has been the best sophomore in the land since July. Higher Power should be forwardly placed, and John Sadler finally won a Breeders' Cup race for the same owner in the 2018 Classic. Morning line favorite McKinzie likes to run in outside lanes, so his post is fine. He just missed qualifying as Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs as a runner-up in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) earlier this season.
Wagers: #10 to win; exacta 10/6-7-11; exacta 6-7-11/10; trifecta 6-10/6-7-8-10-11/6-7-8-10-11.
Reinier Macatangay
Winner: #7 Higher Power
On the board: #8 McKinzie, #11 Code of Honor
Longshot I like: #3 Owendale
Analysis: Higher Power ran his best career race at 1 1/4 miles in the Pacific Classic (G1) and deserves a shot to rebound off his troubled third in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1). McKinzie remains a contender, too, as trainer Bob Baffert and rider Joel Rosario will probably attempt an aggressive strategy. Code of Honor is in sharp form after the Jockey Club Gold Cup win and loves the distance, while Owendale is on the upswing as well and runs like he never gets tired.