Expert picks: Blue Grass Stakes predictions, longshots
There doesn't appear to be a standout from the bunch in Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes, and the 14 set to go at Keeneland share something else in common: None are comfortably in the 2019 Kentucky Derby on points.
It'll be an all-out effort, and quite the handicapping puzzle to solve, as evidenced by wide-ranging opinions submitted by Horse Racing Nation's contributors. See them below, and before placing your bets, check out free Blue Grass Stakes past performances.
Bryan Brinkmeyer, The Kentucky Derby Post
Winner: #2 Vekoma
On the board: #3 Signalman, #8 Win Win Win
Longshot I like: #11 So Alive
Analysis: Though the two horses that beat Vekoma in the Fountain of Youth (G2) didn't fare too well in the Florida Derby, I think the son of Candy Ride is ready to prove he belongs in the Kentucky Derby field with a victory Saturday. I anticipate that Signalman, Win Win Win and So Alive will all be in the mix to round out the trifecta. I will play them each underneath.
Jeffrey Byrnes, Byrnzzze's Corner
Winner: #2 Vekoma
On the board: #8 Win Win Win, #9 Sir Winston
Longshot I like: #11 So Alive
Analysis: Vekoma makes his second start off the layoff and from the inside post he will get a ground-saving trip. The pace in front of him is likely to be a quick one. He has Jose Ortiz aboard and will be coming late. Win Win Win was a fast-closing third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) when wide the whole way and needs a better trip this time. Sir Winston was too far back to impact in his last but was closing well late. With a live pace, he's worth a longshot look. So Alive was a strange third in the Sam F. Davis (G3) last out. He's won going two turns and has a maiden victory over the Keeneland track. His closing kick will have to come in to win. I will play a 2-8-9-11 superfecta box.
Candice Curtis (@skipaway2000)
Winner: #3 Signalman
On the board: #2 Vekoma, #1 Somelikeithotbrown
Longshot I like: #9 Sir Winston
Analysis: Signalman ran a nice comeback race in the Fountain of Youth and should be fit after the strong works he's put in at Gulfstream the last couple weeks. Vekoma also finished the Fountain of Youth well coming off a long layoff despite staying relatively close to the hot pace that day. It won't be that fast at Keeneland, which will help him out here. Somelikeithotbrown should take to dirt just fine based on his pedigree, and he's got the magic spot at Keeneland for horses with early speed: the rail. Sir Winston ran a sneaky-good race in the Tampa Bay Derby. I don't think he'll get the pace to close into the top spot, but use him under.
Jarrod Horak, Pick 6 Blog
Winner: #8 Win Win Win
On the board: #2 Vekoma, #1 Somelikeithotbrown
Longshot I like: #3 Signalman
Analysis: Win Win Win is still an unknown commodity in routes after a wide, rallying show finish in the Tampa Bay Derby. All four of his sprint tries were solid, and he might improve in his second try around two turns. Vekoma won both of his starts around one turn last year and came back with a solid third in the Fountain of Youth. Somelikeithotbrown won his last two on all-weather ground, including the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in front-running fashion. I love his versatility, and he is bred to handle dirt. Signalman ran well in all three of his points races around two turns last year, including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He returned with a subpar effort in the Fountain of Youth and will try to get involved late. Dream Maker was sharp around two turns in optional claiming company on Feb. 9 before throwing in a clunker in Tampa Bay Derby. He adds blinkers.
The Plays: #8 to win; exacta 8/1-2-6; exacta 1-2-6/8; trifecta 1-2-6-8/1-2-6-8/3.
Anthony Jaskulski (@AnthonyJazz)
Winner: #6 Dream Maker
On the board: #2 Vekoma, #8 Win Win Win
Longshot I like: #6 Dream Maker
Analysis: Can we just erase from memory Dream Maker's Tampa Bay Derby and Breeders' Futurity tries? The horse was bumped, shoved and pushed to the back in both starts from jump. Skip to Saturday, and a solid four-furlong in 46 seconds breezing at Keeneland shows he's ready for redemption given a better break. He will be in this one.
Casey Laughter, The Tattooed Tracksider
Winner: #8 Win Win Win
On the board: #2 Vekoma, #3 Signalman
Longshot I like: #1 Somelikeithotbrown
Analysis: If Win Win Win can sit right behind the speed of Somelikeithotbrown, Lucky Lee, Market King and possibly Vekoma, then he should be able to make a nice move coming into the stretch. Somelikeithotbrown is an interesting play because his only dirt start was his debut, where a race at Saratoga came off the turf and he raced in the slop. He is bred impeccably and should perform well given a clean trip.
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: #2 Vekoma
On the board: #6 Dream Maker, #1 Somelikeithotbrown
Longshot I like: #14 Aquadini
Analysis: Vekoma is fast and versatile, two important traits in a top Derby trail horse. If Dream Maker breaks well, then he is usable on top too, as his last race was too poor to believe. Those two runners are the best options for the A and B slots in horizontal wagers, with Somelikeithotbrown another possible B if affordable.