Expert picks: 2020 Kentucky Derby picks and predictions

Many may view the 2020 Kentucky Derby as a one horse race. Most of our panel of experts agree that Tiz the Law will be tough to defeat, but a few are going make the attempt.

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Read how our experts are placing their Derby wagers below:

Jarrod Horak

Winner: #16 Honor A. P.

Hit the board: #2 Max Player

Hit the board: #17 Tiz the Law

Longshot: #3 Enforceable

Analysis: Honor A. P. is lightly raced, fresh, and sitting on a career best race at a distance he should enjoy. His final Derby prep in the Shared Belief Stakes was too short for him but served its purpose.

Honor A.P.'s best effort was in the SA Derby at a mile and an eighth, and he should run faster than that on Saturday. Tiz the Law is an obvious contender. He is already a grade one winner at a mile and a quarter. I am concerned that he has not really been tested this year. Max Player has plenty of stamina and three solid local workouts. He should save ground and finish with interest. Enforceable has always been a reliable late runner in route stakes races. He can spice up the exotics.

As for wagers, I am definitely playing Honor A. P. to win. I will only use Tiz the Law defensively in trifectas and superfectas. Most of my tickets will key Honor A. P. on top and Max Player and Enforceable underneath.

Padraic Manocchio

Winner: #16 Honor A. P.

Hit the board: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #15 Ny Traffic

Longshot: #2 Max Player

Analysis: This is going to be an epic battle between Tiz the Law and Honor A. P., who I think is a star in his own right. Tiz the Law's amazing accomplishments speak for themselves and Honor A. P.'s last race was merely a prep. He will return to his Santa Anita Derby form and should thrive at the distance. Slightest of edges goes to Honor A. P. because of the price. These two runners will be five lengths clear of the scramble for 3rd, which Ny Traffic looks poised to hold over Max Player.

Bryan Brinkmeyer 

Winner: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #18 Authentic

Longshot: #15 Ny Traffic

Analysis: Tiz the Law has shown more stamina and speed than the rest of the field. After they round the final turn, the son of Constitution will push through to win in his second race at the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. I expect Authentic to be close but come up short, whereas Ny Traffic along with Honor A.P., Major Fed, and Thousand Words will be the horses at the bottom of my trifecta.

Nick Costa

Winner: #16 Honor A. P.

Hit the board: #17 Tiz the Law

Longshot: #2 Max Player

Analysis: Honor A.P. is capable of moving forward off his last race, a good maintenance prep in the Shared Belief. His running style suits this race, and he should get a nice tracking trip. He was an impressive winner of the Santa Anita Derby two starts back.

Tiz the Law has been dominant in all four of his starts this year. He drew nicely to the outside where he likes to be and where he does his best work. A win keeps the Triple Crown hopes alive. Max Player was up against it last race as the Saratoga surface aided speed, but he still managed to finish third. He's worked well over the Churchill surface and could be ready to break through.

Reinier Macatangay

Winner: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #16 Honor A. P., #18 Authentic

Long shot:  Attachment Rate

Analysis: With a clean trip, Tiz the Law figures to travel in a perfect outside spot just behind the leaders and take over whenever he wants approaching the turn. If Honor A. P. does not give up too many lengths to him, he might offer a stern challenge. Both of them need to pay attention to Authentic, who is liable to slip away on an uncontested lead. Behind the favorites, Attachment Rate might pick off tired horses and "clunk" in for a piece at a huge price, making him a backwheel candidate.

Jeffrey Byrnes

Winner: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #16 Honor A. P.

Long shot: #5 Major Fed

Analysis: Tiz the Law has done little wrong in his career. Perfect 4 for 4 in 2020, a classic winner, and already a winner at 10 furlongs, Tiz the Law is a well deserved favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He's working strong and should get a good trip from the outside post. If he runs the same race he ran in the Travers, everyone will be running for 2nd.

Honor A.P was a sharp winner of the Santa Anita Derby two starts back, with his last run a 2nd in the Shared Belief. His pedigree screams ten furlongs. He should get a good trip on the outside and with a fast pace should be flying late. Major Fed has not won much, but he is consistent. Only outside the top four once, Major Fed should get a good trip, and with a good pace he will be flying late. I will play a 17 -16-5 trifecta.

Ron Flatter

Winner: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #16 Honor A. P.

Long shot:  #10 Thousand Words

Analysis: I believe Thousand Words got back to his old self. And if you want to give me double-digit odds (or close to them) on a Baffert horse in the Kentucky Derby, he is the one that I will take.

Mark Midland

Winner: #17 Tiz the Law

Hit the board: #16 Honor A. P.

Hit the board: #18 Authentic

Long shot: #13 Attachment Rate

Analysis: I'm not going to overthink this one. I think it's pretty clear to everyone that Tiz the Law is the best horse, and Honor A.P. has the best chance to upset. For a longshot, look at Attachment Rate. His races are getting better every time, he should be in a good spot and will definitely get the distance. The 40-1 price is a huge opportunity and I will use Attachment rate in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th spots with the top choices.

The plays: (repeat each with Tiz the Law on top by himself)
$1 Trifecta 16-17-18 with 15-16-17-18 with 13
$1 Superfecta 16-17-18 with 15-16-17-18 with 2-3-4-10-15-16-17-18 with 13
$1 Trifecta 16-17-18 with 13 with 2-4-10-15-16-17-18

Victor Ryan

Winner: #16 Honor A.P.

Hit the board: #17 Tiz the Law, # 18 Authentic

Long shot: #3 Enforceable

Analysis: It's hard to get past the three favorites in terms of win candidates. Honor A.P. gets the selection here. The pedigree suggests he should thrive at the mile and a quarter distance and Kentucky Derby-winning trainer John Shirreffs knows how to get a 3-year-old ready on the big stage. Enforceable is an off-the-pace type who could come on to spice up the trifecta/superfecta. 

Win: 17
Superfecta: 16 with/17,18 with/3,10,12,15,17,18 with/ 3,10,12,15,17,18
Superfecta: 17,18 with/16 with/3,10,12,15,17,19 with/3,10,12,15,17,19
Trifecta Key: 3 with 16/17/18

Candice Curtis

Winner: Tiz the Law

Hit the board: Authentic

Long shot: Money Moves

Analysis: A one pace horse, coming from the outside post, and a lot of pressers and off the pace types should make for a slow KY Derby. But Tiz the Law, big favorite and a confirmed presser, should take to this nicely.

He's also on the outside, his preferred spot to run, and he's already proven at the distance. Authentic, though breaking on the far outside, is handled by John Velazquez, who will ration his speed carefully through the 10 furlongs. I think he'll hit a wall in the stretch, however, allowing Tiz to take over and win this Derby for fun.

Authentic is still a quality horse and I think he'll hit the board. Money Moves will be pressing the slow pace, too, and he is fresh compared to the other long shots. I could see him hitting the board behind Tiz and Authentic. As for Honor A.P., I have a feeling Mike Smith is going to take him farther out of it than he wants due to the outside draw and the horse's tendency to come from off the pace. He'll ride him like a closer, and he won't have the steam to pass enough horses at the end.