Expert picks: 2020 Belmont Stakes predictions, longshots
At long last, the Belmont Stakes is Saturday, albeit with a much different feel as the first leg of the 2020 Triple Crown and at a shorter distance of 1 1/8 miles.
Tiz the Law is the strong favorite, with a 6-5 morning line. Sole Volante is next at 9-2, followed by Dr Post at 5-1.
Here is how Horse Racing Nation's team is playing the Belmont Stakes, with free past performances available to help you come to your own conclusions.
RELATED: Belmont Stakes 2020: Odds, Picks and Free PPs
A couple of pace scenarios are possible. Tap It To Win comes out from post No. 1 with the lead and never looks back, or he is pressured early and one of the stalkers prevails. Tiz the Law might be in the right spot behind the speed, and Dr Post should be perched just outside the favorite.
As shown in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), Tiz the Law wants to run outside of horses. In this race, he drew Post 8 in a one-turn route, giving him the best chance to establish a comfortable position clear of traffic and pull off a popular win.
I expect a very hot early pace, and that sets up best for Sole Volante. Obviously Tiz the Law is the best on paper but will be an underlay of epic proportions. Using Sole Volante on top, and hoping Farmington Road follows that one to hit the board at a price. Using Modernist underneath as well.
If you're putting Tiz the Law on top then just play one exacta with your second choice. No sense reducing your profit margin with other combinations.
Key #8 over #2,#1 with #2,#1,#3, with #2,#1,#3,#10,#9,#4
RELATED: Free Past Performances
After his last layoff, Tiz the Law returned in the Florida Derby with a solid performance in the Holy Bull. I see no reason that we won't see this same result in the Belmont Stakes against this field.
The race goes through #8 Tiz the Law. He is training like a beast, is best coming off a modest layoff, and is going one-turn at Belmont, where he ran one of his best races. He is deservedly the favorite. I'll build my TRI/SUPER tickets around him in 1st, with #10 Pneumatic and #2 Sole Volante in second, and #3 Max Player, #4 Modernist, #9 Dr. Post in 3rd/4th.
I'll have some WPS money on #4 Modernist and #10 Pneumatic since Mott & Asmussen have recent success in the Belmont Stakes and their charges will have value.
Pneumatic is coming into the Belmont in good form. Fresh off a game 3rd place finish in the Matt Winn Stakes. His high cruising speed will put him with the leaders early on, but he will have to get a clean break to avoid being caught wide. Posted strong five furlong work two weeks ago, cutting to one turn could be the difference.
Modernist posted a sharp five furlong work last weekend to confirm his spot in this race. He has speed and the ability to stalk, he has won at this distance multiple times, including the Risen Star early in February. If he can work out a good trip, and stay out of trouble, he's in for the upset chance. I will play 10-8-1-4 superfecta.
Everyone's ready for the first leg of the Triple Crown, and for the first time, it begins with the Belmont. Trained by Barclay Tagg and by Constitution, Tiz The Law is the one to beat. He's the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 victory and he's been firing on all cylinders this year. He also loves the track and the adjusted nine-furlong distance from its original 12 should serve him well.
Tiz The Law would be undefeated if not for a boxed in trip in the slop at Churchill Downs last fall. The NY-bred easily took care of business in his two starts in Florida. He has won at this distance and on the Belmont surface. Far and above the most talented of the group.