Expert picks: 2020 Arkansas Derby predictions, longshots
Is it as simple as singling undefeated Charlatan and Nadal, then moving on in split divisions of Saturday's Grade 1, $500,000 Arkansas Derby? Not so, say the Horse Racing Nation contributors who provided their picks here.
The flights go as Race 11 (6:29 p.m. ET) and Race 13 (7:43 p.m. ET) at Oaklawn Park with the full allotment of Kentucky Derby points paying out to both races top-four finishers on a 100-40-20-10 scale. Ahead of post time(s), check out free past performances. Good luck!
Charlatan is delivering reminders of Justify with an electrifying debut and allowance win in first two starts. He makes his stakes debut against tough competition but has been working up a storm, including a sharp 3/4-mile drill last week. He will break from the rail and be able to save ground all the way around. Is Charlatan the real deal? We'll find out. I'll also play Gouverneur Morris, who comes in off an OK fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). He took a wide trip, and this time the competition plays into his hands. I also like Winning Impression, who crossed the wire first last time but was disqualified for interference. He has run well over this track, and never count out Dallas Stewart longshots on the big days. Basin will finally get back on a fast surface. When he is closer to the pace, he can sit and run well. I will play a 1-4-9-11 superfecta.
Nick Costa
Win pick: #8 Anneau d’Or
This is a weak lineup featuring a potential star pitted against some marginal players at best. For the win, the race boils down to Charlatan, and to a lesser extent, Anneau d’Or and Gouverneur Morris. Charlatan, the most likely winner, will offer no value in the win pool, but one of the other noted win contenders should render bet-able odds. I’ll wager $10 on the higher of the two, which I believe will be the Anneau d'Or.
I’ll also wager a .20 cent superfecta, totaling $14, constructed as such: 1-4-8/1-4-8-/4-8-9-11/4-8-9-11
Win pick: #1 Charlatan
Analysis: It is neither a flashy (nor profitable) selection, but Charlatan has put up elite figures in his first two races and all signs point to him submitting a monster performance against this field. The only other horse to be concerned with, in my opinion, is the Grade 1 winner Basin. Charlatan in a romp.
Win pick: #1 Charlatan
Analysis: Charlatan is faster than these on paper and looks like the controlling speed from the rail. Gouverneur Morris and Anneau d'Or are logical alternatives to the favorite, and Winning Impression is getting better and can spice up the exotics.
Wagers: exacta 1-9; trifecta 1-4/1-4-8-9/1-4-8-9; trifecta 1/all/9
Win pick: #1 Charlatan
Analysis: With Shooters Shoot's scratch, Charlatan will set the pace uncontested and capture his first Grade 1 race at 3/5 odds or less. Basin could hang around for second with another even finish, along with the morning line second choice Gouverneur Morris. Also, Mo Mosa is an interesting longshot, as he might pick off enough tired horses in the lane. But the race is best conceded to Charlatan and avoided in single-race wagers.
Mark Midland
Win pick: #8 Anneau d'Or
Analysis: This race is all about Charlatan, but he's won so easily in small fields. I want to see what he can do when the pressure turns up. The problem is, there isn't much other pace, but I'm hoping Basin can provide some pace that would allow Anneau d'Ora perfect stalking trip. Anneau d'Or had a nightmarish trip in the Risen Star (G2), but it's also possible that he's continued to bounce off his top figure in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It has now been six months since the Breeders' Cup race, and he's been working lights out for two months in preparation for this start. He's regally bred to only get better with distances and could surprise when most people are thinking his result last November was a fluke. Also look at Winning Impression as a great option in second and third. How many times have we seen Stewart run second or third with big longshots in these types of races.
The play: $5 exacta wheel 1-8 over 8-9 and $2 trifecta wheel 1-8 over 1-4-8-11 over 9
Win pick: #1 Charlatan
Bob Baffert’s imposing favorite will go straight to the front from the one hole and, if given an expectedly easy lead, he is dangerous. I considered Shooters Shoot a live longshot who had proven he likes the track until that one scratched.
Win pick: #10 Farmington Road
Farmington Road was a fast-closing second in the Oaklawn Stakes over this course/distance last time out. He got off to a poor start and came on strongly to just miss. This time, he will need a clean break, and don't be surprised if he gets closer to the pace than normal. Javier Castellano returns to ride him in this race in a big endorsement to his chances. He ran a career-high Beyer number last out. Wells Bayou was a wire-to-wire winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) when last seen. He has constantly gotten better with every race. He was second over the Oaklawn track in the Southwest Stakes (G3). He will be on the lead from the outside post. Silver Prospector got a troubled trip last out in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and it cost him a placing. If he runs to his Southwest, he can have a chance. As a closer, he will need speed in front of him and a clean trip to get a good run. Nadal is 3-for-3 in his career and put forth an incredible performance in the Rebel last out. He dueled on the lead through fast fractions, and hung around for a game win. Nadal is a talented pace type, but with Wells Bayou in here, he must avoid a speed duel to avoid getting tired late. Also lookout for a possible regression from that hard-fought Rebel. I will play a 10-11-7-5 superfecta.
Win pick: #5 Nadal
The undefeated Nadal took a lot of early heat in the Rebel, then displayed heart to hold off a rival late to win. He's sure to get pace pressure from several competitors here, so I’ll also use the two best closers, Silver Prospector and Farmington Road, as backup in case my top choice gets passed late. I’ll play two $5 exacta boxes, 5/7 and 5/10, costing $20 total.
Win pick: #7 Silver Prospector
Analysis: While the conventional thought here is that Nadal will win and complete the Baffert sweep, I'm going with Steve Asmussen-trained Silver Prospector. I expect quite the battle for the early lead, and that may set the race up perfectly for Silver Prospector to score from off the pace. I'm intrigued by longshot Taishan. Will box King Guillermo, Nadal, Silver Prospector and Taishan in trifectas (4,5,7,9).
Win pick: #10 Farmington Road
Analysis: Farmington Road should get pace to chase and is proven at a mile and an eighth. Silver Prospector is inconsistent but can rally for a large slice if he has his mind on running. Nadal is the best of the speed and won’t go down without a fight. King Guillermo and Wells Bayou are graded route stakes winners with speed.
Wagers: #10 to win; exacta 7-10/5-7-10; trifecta 5-7-10/5-7-10/4-5-7-10-11; trifecta 5/all/7-10
Win pick: #4 King Guillermo
Analysis: On paper, King Guillermo projects to sit right off the pacesetters, giving him a good close-range striking position. If the pace is slower than expected, he could also contest or set the pace. His likelihood of securing a good position along with his class as the Tampa Bay Derby winner gives him the slight nod. Nadal could also win as the heavy favorite. For longer prices, Silver Prospector or Farmington Road may come late. All four of them are usable in the Pick 4. But vertically, it might benefit to go against Nadal in the top slot.
Mark Midland
The play: $1 trifecta 9 with 4-5-7-10 with 4-5-7-10-11 and 4-5-7-10 with 9 with 4-5-7-10-11.